A little economic history puzzle

I googled and I got a bunch of contradictory shit...it seems people flocked into the markets (kind of like today), but eventually, it crashed...so I am buying canned beans and ammo.
 
German_Hyperinflation.jpg
Www.thebubblebubble.com has every bubble apart from German stocks.
 
Last edited:
You might like this book "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly" covers a lot of these scenarios. There have been a lot more that I thought.
 
TimtheEnchanter said:
Does anyone know what happened to the stockmarket in Weimar Germany during hyperinflation?
More...

https://www.businessinsider.com/her...g-the-german-hyperinflation-2011-11?r=US&IR=T

Obviously it went up: several million % in mark terms. But it also doubled in USD terms, i.e. did better than inflation. Why?

Economists answer: Assuming firms have pricing power, and PE ratios are fixed, stock prices should track price indices one to one. PE ratios are influenced by many things, but interest rates are important: lower real interest rates justify higher PE ratios and vice versa. Normally when inflation occurs you'd expect interest rates to go up to fight it, but they didnt: they were pegged at 5%. So real interest rates were insanely negative, hence stocks should have gone up.

Traders answer: Well, even stocks that were a poor quality inflation hedge would still have been a much better investment than bonds or cash (I'd assume quite a bit of money would also have flowed offshore, although I don't know how strict capital controls were back).

GAT
 
globalarbtrader said:
https://www.businessinsider.com/her...g-the-german-hyperinflation-2011-11?r=US&IR=T

Obviously it went up: several million % in mark terms. But it also doubled in USD terms, i.e. did better than inflation. Why?

Economists answer: Assuming firms have pricing power, and PE ratios are fixed, stock prices should track price indices one to one. PE ratios are influenced by many things, but interest rates are important: lower real interest rates justify higher PE ratios and vice versa. Normally when inflation occurs you'd expect interest rates to go up to fight it, but they didnt: they were pegged at 5%. So real interest rates were insanely negative, hence stocks should have gone up.

Traders answer: Well, even stocks that were a poor quality inflation hedge would still have been a much better investment than bonds or cash (I'd assume quite a bit of money would also have flowed offshore, although I don't know how strict capital controls were back).

GAT
More...

mckinsey did a study on the PE vs interest rate and came to the conclusion that lower rates don’t justify higher PE’s
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top