Talent comes naturally. It can never be bought. You either have it instilled in you or you don't. If you have a little then it is up to you to develop it through hours of your own hard work and trial and error but you won't find the answer by copying others. You have to find what works with your personality from within. Paying for trading courses is like me paying Bonds 10k to teach me how to hit a baseball 500 ft. There are so many ways for hitting a baseball for distance yet the simple concept can be taught to anyone but if they don't have some talent or the heart to expand on a little bit of talent then they will never replicate what the teacher can do. I strongly believe that personality plays a huge part in trading. Most people are not suited for what this profession demands and are not willing to put in the work to get to the next level. I've mentored a few people over the years and maybe I am not the best teacher but I can usually tell in the beginning who will succeed and who will not based on their attitude, personality type and amount of determination. If you are not hungry enough then it's best to quit before you even start.
A list of all scam unregulated 3rd party educational vendors
- Thread starter emg
- Start date
I can help you recognize the trend of the market.
Help you set-up your monitor
Have you watch videos
Understand what a stop is
How to maximize gain (see that is the top, if you sell there you maximize)
Trade 1 lots for you to see. Lose $25, so what you will give me way more.
Show you fibs and you can say "wow." don't worry, they don't work in real-time only on charts i know they would have worked on. nah, didn't trade the chart i'm showing you.
How to read the tape (when it goes fast and lots of red colors, i'll say "look, selling pressure. longs getting out. shorts in control."
and i'll show you lots of charts from the past and how you could have traded it. see this bottom, buy here. stop here.. wow, we are making millions if we had a time machine.
All for $7,658
Or 11 easy payments
OK, OK $599
really. OK, between me and you....$99
How about this. $25 and I never talk to you again.
Can you send it now???!!!!
Help you set-up your monitor
Have you watch videos
Understand what a stop is
How to maximize gain (see that is the top, if you sell there you maximize)
Trade 1 lots for you to see. Lose $25, so what you will give me way more.
Show you fibs and you can say "wow." don't worry, they don't work in real-time only on charts i know they would have worked on. nah, didn't trade the chart i'm showing you.
How to read the tape (when it goes fast and lots of red colors, i'll say "look, selling pressure. longs getting out. shorts in control."
and i'll show you lots of charts from the past and how you could have traded it. see this bottom, buy here. stop here.. wow, we are making millions if we had a time machine.
All for $7,658
Or 11 easy payments
OK, OK $599
really. OK, between me and you....$99
How about this. $25 and I never talk to you again.
Can you send it now???!!!!
hey, that is really funny but i am afraid that is how it is accomplished.
come on, you wannabe.... do your own homework, so you can be just as great as those trading for a living. however, do give yourself about 9 months, practising full time, to become more or less breakeven....
Doc, they feed on your lack of confidence, neediness, and at times, even laziness. That's when they have the best chance to get the most money out of you...before the market does.
You'll notice how none of them want to introduce you to common statistical tools/measurements so that you can better your own performance without their help or expose how mediocre the method they're trying to pitch to you really is. [Many of them aren't even bright enough to do this themselves]
Perhaps the biggest underlying lie they all have in common is that they insist their method is "proprietary" because the market would adjust if it became known and render it useless or far less useful. Billion dollar funds move the market. All approaches which work take advantage of hitching rides on top of that and not the other way around. The truth is that their method, if it does work, is so simple at its core (and derivable from free resources), that you would feel absolutely cheated if it weren't embellished to the nth degree as part of its presentation.
Here's what I absolutely must do when researching any trading method:
1. Find the winners first. I want a minimum of 150.
2. Measure how far each move went minus 1 tick. If you use a buy/sell stop to enter instead of a limit order then subtract 2-3 ticks instead (accounting for entry slippage). That is called your maximum favorable excursion (MFE).
3. Measure how far each winner went against you before getting to the MFE. This is your maximun adverse excursion (MAE).
4. Out of all those trades, what is the largest MAE you would have to endure so that you could capture around 95% of those winners? I add 1 tick to that number. This is my stop loss.
5. You'll have a lot of good stats you can derive from the numbers collected. You can see the individual reward to risk ratios, the average, where the largest pct of MFE's are found, etc. This is all good stuff to help you with the next part.
6. Find the losers. Every loser is the stop loss amount you've already calculated.
7. A winning system derived from this data must give a positive number from this formula known as Expectancy:
Expectancy = (avg win * winning pct) - (avg loss * losing pct)
This is the hard part in getting your edge. If there's more losers than winners, then you have to find a way to filter down those losers without adversely affecting the population of winners. You know the drill...staying out of chop if your system is based on trends...staying out of trends if your system thrives in chop.
Here is the thing that just about all traders aren't told when they start. They usually learn it from trial and error, but here it is:
There is an INVERSE relationship between your winning pct and your payoff ratio (i.e., avg win / avg loss). In EVERY winning system (i.e., a positive expectancy system) the higher your winning pct is, the lower your payoff ratio is going to be. The lower your winning pct is, the higher your payoff ratio will be. This mathematical observation is correct. It's not as directly inverse as a bond price is to its yield but it is along those same lines. It's a gravitational effect.
I can tell you from the above paragraph that anyone who claims that s/he wins 80% of the time and wins 1.5+ times more on the winners vs. the losers over 100's / 1000's of trades is a fraud. [yes, scratch trades are still risk so you have to count them too in the totals of the win/loss population and expectancy formula]
Given this knowledge, you can craft the above information you've collected about a trading method you're pursuing into a high winning pct system with a lower RR ratio or a lower winning pct system with a higher RR ratio.
You want numbers in this game like the ones I've cited above. And you have to continually record and monitor them for changes once you've chosen a particular method proven (by you) to be a winner. Of course, volatility is the major factor which brings about adverse or advantageous elements in a trading method so the more adaptable it is to this, the longer lifespan you can expect to get out of its application.
I had better stop now lest I get accused by the austinp's of the board of trying to sell something myself. ;-)
You'll notice how none of them want to introduce you to common statistical tools/measurements so that you can better your own performance without their help or expose how mediocre the method they're trying to pitch to you really is. [Many of them aren't even bright enough to do this themselves]
Perhaps the biggest underlying lie they all have in common is that they insist their method is "proprietary" because the market would adjust if it became known and render it useless or far less useful. Billion dollar funds move the market. All approaches which work take advantage of hitching rides on top of that and not the other way around. The truth is that their method, if it does work, is so simple at its core (and derivable from free resources), that you would feel absolutely cheated if it weren't embellished to the nth degree as part of its presentation.
Here's what I absolutely must do when researching any trading method:
1. Find the winners first. I want a minimum of 150.
2. Measure how far each move went minus 1 tick. If you use a buy/sell stop to enter instead of a limit order then subtract 2-3 ticks instead (accounting for entry slippage). That is called your maximum favorable excursion (MFE).
3. Measure how far each winner went against you before getting to the MFE. This is your maximun adverse excursion (MAE).
4. Out of all those trades, what is the largest MAE you would have to endure so that you could capture around 95% of those winners? I add 1 tick to that number. This is my stop loss.
5. You'll have a lot of good stats you can derive from the numbers collected. You can see the individual reward to risk ratios, the average, where the largest pct of MFE's are found, etc. This is all good stuff to help you with the next part.
6. Find the losers. Every loser is the stop loss amount you've already calculated.
7. A winning system derived from this data must give a positive number from this formula known as Expectancy:
Expectancy = (avg win * winning pct) - (avg loss * losing pct)
This is the hard part in getting your edge. If there's more losers than winners, then you have to find a way to filter down those losers without adversely affecting the population of winners. You know the drill...staying out of chop if your system is based on trends...staying out of trends if your system thrives in chop.
Here is the thing that just about all traders aren't told when they start. They usually learn it from trial and error, but here it is:
There is an INVERSE relationship between your winning pct and your payoff ratio (i.e., avg win / avg loss). In EVERY winning system (i.e., a positive expectancy system) the higher your winning pct is, the lower your payoff ratio is going to be. The lower your winning pct is, the higher your payoff ratio will be. This mathematical observation is correct. It's not as directly inverse as a bond price is to its yield but it is along those same lines. It's a gravitational effect.
I can tell you from the above paragraph that anyone who claims that s/he wins 80% of the time and wins 1.5+ times more on the winners vs. the losers over 100's / 1000's of trades is a fraud. [yes, scratch trades are still risk so you have to count them too in the totals of the win/loss population and expectancy formula]
Given this knowledge, you can craft the above information you've collected about a trading method you're pursuing into a high winning pct system with a lower RR ratio or a lower winning pct system with a higher RR ratio.
You want numbers in this game like the ones I've cited above. And you have to continually record and monitor them for changes once you've chosen a particular method proven (by you) to be a winner. Of course, volatility is the major factor which brings about adverse or advantageous elements in a trading method so the more adaptable it is to this, the longer lifespan you can expect to get out of its application.
I had better stop now lest I get accused by the austinp's of the board of trying to sell something myself. ;-)
@SteveH
great thought and understanding.
but remember you are not addressing econs 101 or trading 101 or even finance 101....!
it would be much more effective and easy on most brains, if you could restate in everyday language with several examples to clarify each point.
only if you have the time and inclination to ease other traders into your private cognition. any rate, luv it. and thx for sharing.
Spoken like a true perennial loser. Dude you just curve-fitted and you didn't even realize it
The markets will eat your perfectly crafted, carefully constructed, tirelessly researched, and neatly packed statistics and send them out it's rear-end....
All good points, I agree with the 80% stuff,, I have winning weeks with only 40% winners, money management was the key. 80% is pretty tough to maintain for the long term,, and not necessary,, I have had many losing trades, which in itself is another diiscipline to tolerate, but I can't remember the last losing week I've had. Getting seasoned to accept much failure but come out a winner is something most people have a hard time with,, at least I did.. However you want to look at it, or analyze or call it, If you can hang in there through tough stuff, the good will outweigh it, if you can find a small edge and the stomach for it. That is why swing and position trading is so much easier. Actually I do all three. Heck I remember reading that if you were to cover up one number on a roullette table,, the house would never play with you,, that is not much of an edge in the houses favor,, nor do we need much of an edge to come out on top. And I also agree with the personality thing, as style does have a part.. Some people cannot hang in through a move long in a favorable direction,, takeing small winners with small losers isn;t going to help,,, I guess tht's where I see the seasoned trader come in,, having the cool head to accept great winners and let them run,, I had to laugh once about a commercial that I think Etrade or someone was running about how they open 1000 new accounts every day... They never said how many accounts they CLOSE every day.. And lastly,, I must say, but I am certainly ready to be proved wrong,, that I truly believe that the only reason that people teach is because it is a sure thing,, why take the risk, when I can whore money out of others. No risk,, no retributions in this game,, The only one where an overseeing organization is truly necessary.. A teacher/mentor should have to prove tht his stuff works, before he can charge for it,, Like Moore lying about his trades, and getting busted by the SEC.. what a piece of crap. Good luck to all,, Doc
Found this thru 3rd party vendor off of Ninja Trader site
This might be a way to better organize your findings of 3rd party venders.
Found this thru 3rd party vendor off of Ninja Trader site
http://www.traderstell.com/
Trader
Doc,
I agree 100%.. It's 0% risk to take $1000's from other traders off the battlefield. That's why they do it. No loss vs. a probability of 40-50% you'll lose on any particular trade. What a no-brainer. I'm sure it becomes intoxicating after awhile...organize the delivery and wash, rinse and repeat. It's the easiest income you'll ever make from home. Wonderful for the ego too.
Desperate people tend not to ask the right questions.
I agree 100%.. It's 0% risk to take $1000's from other traders off the battlefield. That's why they do it. No loss vs. a probability of 40-50% you'll lose on any particular trade. What a no-brainer. I'm sure it becomes intoxicating after awhile...organize the delivery and wash, rinse and repeat. It's the easiest income you'll ever make from home. Wonderful for the ego too.
Desperate people tend not to ask the right questions.
A few simple tells is when they start to talk and talk and talk and talk....about nothing.
Remember, they have about 10 futures and 5000+ stocks to choose from. They find one and say "Look, see this volume and see this move up and if you used our 9th set-up properly they you make this much money." You always have a set-up for absolutely every price movement.
worst case you say "there will be draw downs. say you did lose a little that day, well look at this day......." and then if you can make this much every week, well that means this and that....all crap talk that MAKES THE TRADER FEEL GOOD WHILE LOSING MONEY FOR "EDUCATION".
it's a relationship business. until the guy runs out of money to pay for crap.
the absolute kicker is when one fraudster says the other guy in his same company is a moron. that's job security.
Remember, they have about 10 futures and 5000+ stocks to choose from. They find one and say "Look, see this volume and see this move up and if you used our 9th set-up properly they you make this much money." You always have a set-up for absolutely every price movement.
worst case you say "there will be draw downs. say you did lose a little that day, well look at this day......." and then if you can make this much every week, well that means this and that....all crap talk that MAKES THE TRADER FEEL GOOD WHILE LOSING MONEY FOR "EDUCATION".
it's a relationship business. until the guy runs out of money to pay for crap.
the absolute kicker is when one fraudster says the other guy in his same company is a moron. that's job security.