You are using an out of date browser. It may not display this or other websites correctly.
You should upgrade or use an alternative browser.
You should upgrade or use an alternative browser.
A High Income Strategy for a Retirement Portfolio
- Thread starter jodistrict
- Start date
I agree with a concept that is central to this post. Think a bit more like a trader and less like someone consumed by the need for a constant return. I don't think 6% is a hard goal to meet in any market as long as you are ok with having a flat year or even a down year occasionally in a string of 8% and 10% years.
You're not working for wages where you need the same return every month. I think fixed income going forward will prove to be a disaster. You can practically hear the damn printing presses churning out dollars and there is at least a 50% chance that sometime in the next five years we will see significant inflation and significant price declines in all sorts of fixed income assets.
Stay loose and don't lock in just to feel comfortable about the future. The future requires you to be flexible and the best way to do that is to stay liquid.
You're not working for wages where you need the same return every month. I think fixed income going forward will prove to be a disaster. You can practically hear the damn printing presses churning out dollars and there is at least a 50% chance that sometime in the next five years we will see significant inflation and significant price declines in all sorts of fixed income assets.
Stay loose and don't lock in just to feel comfortable about the future. The future requires you to be flexible and the best way to do that is to stay liquid.
Quote from chimera:
a good trader and i mean investor in good stocks, low risk, let profits run etc should be able to create 10%+ p.a. on average. not every year work on 20% one year, flat the next etc.
It is possible to make 6% with zero risk.
You do that by combining safe CD's with a Quantitative Algorithmic trading system. Like my own that gives an annual average return of 50% for 15% of risk.
Example:
Equity: $1,000,000
90% you invest in a CD paying 2%, gives you $18000 for $0 risk.
10% you put into the QAT yielding 50%, gives you $50,000 for $15,000 risk.
Best case senario: + $68,000
Worst case: + $3,000
You do that by combining safe CD's with a Quantitative Algorithmic trading system. Like my own that gives an annual average return of 50% for 15% of risk.
Example:
Equity: $1,000,000
90% you invest in a CD paying 2%, gives you $18000 for $0 risk.
10% you put into the QAT yielding 50%, gives you $50,000 for $15,000 risk.
Best case senario: + $68,000
Worst case: + $3,000
I'm confused. How is that no risk. Isn't the real risk that he yields $3,000 on his million or .3%? On what planet is that zero risk? Do you believe that an outcome that yields you $3,000 on a million over the course of a year is anything but a statistical profit that allows you to feel good about screwing yourself?
And that is accepting that your your "QAT" has some realistic chance of yielding 50% of which I have exactly zero evidence.
And that is accepting that your your "QAT" has some realistic chance of yielding 50% of which I have exactly zero evidence.
Quote from bln:
It is possible to make 6% with zero risk.
You do that by combining safe CD's with a Quantitative Algorithmic trading system. Like my own that gives an annual average return of 50% for 15% of risk.
Example:
Equity: $1,000,000
90% you invest in a CD paying 2%, gives you $18000 for $0 risk.
10% you put into the QAT yielding 50%, gives you $50,000 for $15,000 risk.
Best case senario: + $68,000
Worst case: + $3,000
Yes, you are clearly confused. risk = loss of money, in financial terms. So if no loss of money, no risk.
In real world trading system returns would see annual fluctuations around their long term average mean. Ranging from 10%-100% in this case. But over a 5-10 year period you will receive your mean.
Just an example, you may pick a good algo CTA program returning above >30%
In real world trading system returns would see annual fluctuations around their long term average mean. Ranging from 10%-100% in this case. But over a 5-10 year period you will receive your mean.
Just an example, you may pick a good algo CTA program returning above >30%
Quote from Swan Noir:
I'm confused. How is that no risk. Isn't the real risk that he yields $3,000 on his million or .3%? On what planet is that zero risk? Do you believe that an outcome that yields you $3,000 on a million over the course of a year is anything but a statistical profit that allows you to feel good about screwing yourself?
Sites that rank CTA:s, a few:
http://www.iasg.com/managed-futures/
http://www.managedfutures.com/top_cta_rankings.aspx
http://www.rapacapintro.com/
http://www.attaincapital.com/managed_futures_rankings‎/
http://www.absolutereturns.com/
http://www.barclayhedge.com/research/cta-rankings.html
http://www.iasg.com/managed-futures/
http://www.managedfutures.com/top_cta_rankings.aspx
http://www.rapacapintro.com/
http://www.attaincapital.com/managed_futures_rankings‎/
http://www.absolutereturns.com/
http://www.barclayhedge.com/research/cta-rankings.html
Quote from slacker:
Hi Bln, where are you searching for a CTA with 30% returns?
Thank you,
So, if I buy a 30 year Treasury right now yielding maybe 3.4% and six years from now inflation runs rampant and that same paper yields 6% by your calculation I haven't bent myself over and rammed a hot poker up my butt? Of course I could hold it another 24 years and get my principal back and maybe sit through a hyperinflation where the yield on that paper goes to 15% or higher. You are under the impression that as long as you get your money back plus a few crumbs you by definition can't have run any risk because you did not suffer a loss in accounting terms.
Like I said I have no idea on what planet that is reasonable. Does that mean in Zimbawea (sp) if I got my money back in a year plus 25% I made a profit even though the currency depreciated by 80 or 90% ... or maybe 97%?
You a living in a fantasy if you calculate profit and loss with that equation and then back into a risk assesment.
Like I said I have no idea on what planet that is reasonable. Does that mean in Zimbawea (sp) if I got my money back in a year plus 25% I made a profit even though the currency depreciated by 80 or 90% ... or maybe 97%?
You a living in a fantasy if you calculate profit and loss with that equation and then back into a risk assesment.
Quote from bln:
Yes, you are clearly confused. risk = loss of money, in financial terms. So if no loss of money, no risk.
In real world trading system returns would see annual fluctuations around their long term average mean. Ranging from 10%-100% in this case. But over a 5-10 year period you will receive your mean.
Just an example, you may pick a good algo CTA program returning above >30%
Quote from slacker:
Hi Bln, where are you searching for a CTA with 30% returns?
Thank you,
I wouldn't listen to anything this guy says. Read his previous post where he says no loss of money = no risk. He clearly has no grasp of how life works. A retiree earning 0.3% IS LOSING MONEY. It's called inflation. and said retiree would be losing about 2.5-3%, and considering this person wants a 6% return they would actually be losing 9% by his "risk free" 0.3%.
No, you got it wrong. He is earning 6% risk free over a +5 year period. Some years will be above, some years will be below, on average 6%
The returns of one single year is irrelevant.
The returns of one single year is irrelevant.
Quote from Took2Summit:
I wouldn't listen to anything this guy says. Read his previous post where he says no loss of money = no risk. He clearly has no grasp of how life works. A retiree earning 0.3% IS LOSING MONEY. It's called inflation. and said retiree would be losing about 2.5-3%, and considering this person wants a 6% return they would actually be losing 9% by his "risk free" 0.3%.