A High Growth Proposition?

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Quote from Kassz007:

Personally, I think the 90%-99% of traders fail statistics to not mean very much.
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I agree. I tried to find actual stats on the Web - to no avail.

I do think there is a higher percentage of ET members that trade well enough. What that means...no one knows for sure.

As we all know, many traders are actually just gambling addicts in disguise, so it's no wonder so many accounts get blown.
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So basically the many that trade are "gambling" with <i>relatively small risk capital</i> and that the whole effort is mostly a "game".

After all if a hedge fund makes 100% in the first 2 years and then loses 75% in the third - the only one who wins is the manager!

How much capital can one risk with this "game"? I am pretty sure nearly all oppose the idea that a decently high CAGR trading strategy could never exist for more than a few years.

By investigating the potential of a serious approach - gains can stay vested and <i>compound</i> for years...arriving at a MUCH LARGER sum, rather fast.

<b>So what are the guiding metrics that determine that a "system" can be managed with a lofty compound annual growth rate for the long term?</b>

After all, a few have placed their vote that indeed gains on their full net worth can be managed. At what rate can only be speculated.

How Much $$$ Are You Managing?

I actively manage 1-25% of my net worth. 12 26.09%
I actively manage 26-50% of my net worth. 8 17.39%
I actively manage 51-75% of my net worth. 4 8.70%
I actively manage 75-100% of my net worth. 22 47.83%
Total: 46 votes 100%

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=174077
 
Not sure what I began writing and won't take the time to re-read it now. I just know that not many jump in with *contributing* dialogue, so I will put out another thought(s) - before I bombard you with the progressive trading result behind my strategy - complete with much, much supporting documentation.

If someone had a 10-year track record, with a decidedly proper money management routine that DID produce a CAGR (compound annual growth rate) of say 75% with an average DD (drawdown) of say 20% (calmar ratio of 3.75) with perhaps a MAX DD of 30%. . .

Would the average trader be compelled to take one-tenth their net worth and keep the funds vested for a couple of years - and then ADD another tenth and let it ride for 3 years?

Can you even calculate the ending return? Do you NOT think this is possible and thereby occupy your time at ET as a "social event" relegated to few k account to play with?

Do you even know how many years it would take to make this amount equal your entire net worth? Or do you know how many more years it would take to equal <b>10X</b> your net worth???

What if you could place a certain amount of confidence with just a 2.5 year track record? Do you think you could still place a relatively small amount of capital and get a *good feeling* about your investment to perhaps add a bit more an let it ride for a while???

Does anyone believe they can have 10-100 times their net worth in a matter of years with a said strategy or is this not even fathomable?

pay$ense

For me it doesn't matter, since once all details are worked out - which they are - one only needs to trade his/her own money. . .but it is perplexing that a developing traders pattern exactly toward exact goal - with documentation - is less interesting here than say a mug-shot of Bozo the Clown.

Can more than a person or two answer more than just 2 of these questions? I do have a follow up, but I am sure most haven't a care behind said goals. Must not understand the value behind a long-term compounding routine with contained drawdown. I guess most are relegated to the regular paycheck.


:cool:
 
This is just (1) example (not my own system) ETF Timer:

http://www.collective2.com/cgi-perl...913865537692259261397&oldsort=-7&queryfilter=

etf_timer.jpg


Granted the track record is *only* 1 year 7 months+, but with an 87% CAGR and 27% (max) DD - and an 81% win ratio on 16 QLD/QID ProShares ETF trades a 2.2 Sharpe ratio and 100% realism factor with 18,080 view times. . .

- one might make a case that trade management through tough market conditions could be worth a bet with 1/10 or 1/5 your net worth (with a set equity stop loss point).

Did you know that once/if things go hunky-dory for 6 months to a year - you might begin to *feel* that you may have stumbled onto something - this time <i>really worthwhile</i> (wrt trading)?!?

Might be worth a discussion. . .I don't know.
 
Quote from Random.Capital:

I took the list of trades and reverse-engineered the signals. This thing is NOT realistic - sorry.
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<b>Please explain,</b> because my 10+ years of experience <i>absolutely</i> does not draw the same conclusion.

19 out of 21 positive months - 13 out of 16 profitable "swing" trades - while the market has been all over the map!

Real-trades from subscriber accounts making serious gains is realistic. Care to share your return?

- besides, the <b>100% realism factor</b> is simply a rating on whether or not these ETF market orders at the open can be executed in subscriber accounts across the board without much difficulty in maintaining price and order.

a popular draw, too:

Viewed 18,178 times
Tracked by 433 My Analyst pages
With commentary: 24

Not saying vendor system will keep it up <b><i>- which is key to me -</i></b> for even another year. . .

FWIW, this trader's blog (not mine) does shows a certain amount of knowledge:

http://www.tcmllc.blogspot.com/

<b>Can anyone give the figure $100,000 launches to at this CAG rate in 5 years?</b>
 
Hint:

10yrperf.jpg


This is what a 50% CAGR looks like at the 10-year mark (power of compounding) with $200,000.

75% CAGR would yield?

pay$ense
 
Quote from paysense:

Of course, many of you will see this as a direct opportunity to gather a following to then sell my commercial products and services. Per ET rules <b>NO RE-DIRECTION LINKS WILL BE PROVIDED IN MY POSTS</b>.
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:D

Quote from paysense:

FWIW, this trader's blog (not mine) does shows a certain amount of knowledge:

http://www.tcmllc.blogspot.com/
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Quote from paysense:

This is just (1) example (not my own system) ETF Timer:

http://www.collective2.com/cgi-perl...913865537692259261397&oldsort=-7&queryfilter=
More...
 
I know that most people have a healthy amount of cynicism built inside - but <b>OddTrader. . .</b>

My statement refers to no re-directions to MY commercial products and services. These were examples pointing to OP (I am not his shill or otherwise promoting OP who is a competitor).

This was for discussion purposes, only. I would hope that most people could see this.

You've been around here a while. It would be great to hear OddTrader contribute.

Worthwhile merits, no?
 
Quote from paysense:

I know that most people have a healthy amount of cynicism built inside - but <b>OddTrader. . .</b>

My statement refers to no re-directions to MY commercial products and services. These were examples pointing to OP (I am not his shill or otherwise promoting OP who is a competitor).

This was for discussion purposes, only. I would hope that most people could see this.

You've been around here a while. It would be great to hear OddTrader contribute.

Worthwhile merits, no?
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Already too busy here:

How to be a Guru in 10 easy Steps
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2575479#post2575479

Frankly speaking: The site is yours, isn't it?
 
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