A gift. Thank me after you get rich.

Quote from usdBull:

This kind of post is exactly why I am bullish the dollar and the US economy.

bull
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interesting. have you noticed lately whenever the equity indexes do well, the US dollar shrinks?

Rallies right now are completely driven by optimism of stop to fed rate increases. But that very stop is a dollar weakening force.

The fed can't control inflation pressure from energy prices. It can only stimulate recession to stop inflation by causing demand destruction to energy.

this is a signal, Mr. Bull. Its not a signal for years of bullish growth.
 
Just in time for a deflationary crash. Oct. 2002 lows revisited?

Look at the Japanese Index from 1990-1998. This should be similar to what happens to the US markets.

We are in Japans 1996 period diverging down.

Japan is diverging up with China and Asia.

Place your bets ladies and gentlemen this should get interesting.:D
 
Quote from 2cents:

c'mon BNT, u know i know u don't :p

anyway, jokes aside, roubini's views are interesting, no question, but they are absolutely not unique, be aware of that... even my granma was saying that with rates going up, housing wld slow down, as far back as 2004!!! beats roubini, right?

other thing is, the Fed is only one part of the equation... your correct that the Fed alone can only do so much... the rest is in the hands of... Gvt... yeah, pretty scary i know... will they kill the golden goose??? will Bill the trapper be proven right at last??? watch our next episode!
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problem is the gov has its hands tied. The deficit is way to big to even allow the current rate of spending to continue, especially in a recession. We ran a DEFICIT during an economic boom when we should have been saving the surplus for a rainy day. During the Clinton era we ran a surplus and Bush proceeded to spend it all and much much more in the process.

This coming recession wont be like the post-bubble "lite" recession of 2001. During that period, the us consumer was resilient as a result of high savings and recent strong growth in real wages. Difference today is the consumer doesnt have any savings and has been pulling value out of their homes in order to spend and increasing their debt load (spending money they dont have) - they think they are pulling out equity, but only increasing and prolonging their indebtedness! Once the energy costs feed through the system and housing slump really set in you'll be surprised at how overextended the avg US consumer is. Consumer spending is in real trouble and Fed is going to have to raise rates or pause (way too optimistic) to contain inflation. So consumer demand is out the window. What about corporate demand?

No way - businesses will have to either cut costs in line with lower sales/demand forecasts or risk having their stock prices tumble.

It's all going to happen very slowly. Wake up in Q1 2007 and realize we are in the midst of a recession and protracted bear market.
 
Quote from QQQShort:

And, if the market goes up ...
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What kind of question is that? If the market goes up they decrease in value. But I addressed this already. Did you read my post?

The market isn't going up over the next 12-18 months. Recession, bear market - that usually means stocks lose value. That's what's oing going to happen, not some year-long bull rally based on... ??? declining corporate sales and weakening consumer spending? How about the record deficit, slumping housing sector and record (and semi-permanent) energy prices? These are real things that are just beginning to go bad and will get worse very quickly over the next year. Panglossian Optimists. Hoping and praying for a continuation of bullish trends in the face of increasingly irreversible bearish indicators. Let's deal with reality here, especially since this could get ugly for the working class people of this country who have failed to save adequately and will be hit hard at home and at the pump. Bad times ahead.

Remember, I'm talking about going long puts, not shorting S&P futures. I don't have to worry about leverage working against me - short term rallies are just opportunities to buy cheaper puts.
 
Quote from BrandNewTrader:

Steve, you're right - he hasn't won a Nobel PRize. I was wrong. I obviously got him mixed up with someone else.

However.

He is still one of the most credible and well respected economists in the world. Below is his executive bio from the site. And I repeat, he's been calling events on an ongoing basis since the middle of 2005 and has been correct each time. He is now predicting a US recession by Q1 2007 with 100% certainty and other economists simply cannot refute his arguments.

I suppose I deserved being called a dildo for making that folish mistake. But you're still welcome. =)

What did you think about the analysis? Oh wait, let me guess, you didn't read it b/c blah blah blah... check it out and let us know what you think...

Nouriel Roubini, Chairman

As Chairman of Roubini Global Economics, Nouriel supervises the editorial policy that has made RGE Monitor the world's leading source for macroeconomic and geostrategic information.

Nouriel is a Professor of Economics at the Stern School of Business at New York University (see http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~nroubini/ for his Stern homepage).

His applied academic research includes seminal work in international macroeconomics, global macro policies, financial crises in emerging markets and their resolution, and the reform of the international financial architecture. As a leading economist in the field of international macroeconomics, Nouriel has had significant senior level policy experience. Numerous policy appointments include former assignments as Senior Economist for International Economics at the White House Council of Economic Advisors, Senior Advisor to the Under Secretary for International Affairs at the U.S. Treasury, Director of the Office of Policy Development and Review at the U.S. Treasury. He has been a policy and research consultant at the IMF since 1985, and is a member of many leading policy forums and organizations including the Bretton Woods Committee, the International Roundtable of the Council of Foreign Relations, the NBER and the CEPR. Nouriel is a consultant for a wide range of policy institutions, Central Banks, and a number of senior executives from major financial institutions. His recent book with Brad Setser on financial crises in emerging markets, Bailouts or Bail-ins? Responding to Financial Crises in Emerging Economies, was published by the Institute for International Economics Council of Foreign Relations in 2004.
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marketing fluff.
 
Quote from BrandNewTrader:

He's been predicting the coming us/global slowdown since mid 2005, and based on events since then has hardened his stance to high probability of recession, and now finally to 100% probability of US recession followed by global slowdown. So in effect, he's been calling this for a while now and has been right. Read the link and the links in the blog if you care to learn more...
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the US markets aproached all-time highs this year.

what good is calling bad times when you have to keep rolling your timeframe?

i predict there will be a global economic slowdown in the next 100 years. give me a cookie.

if you can't offer a 60-90 day window, get lost. (sorry, but this repeated prognostication that is always "over the next hill" is tiresome..)
 
Quote from krazykarl:

the US markets aproached all-time highs this year.

what good is calling bad times when you have to keep rolling your timeframe?

i predict there will be a global economic slowdown in the next 100 years. give me a cookie.

if you can't offer a 60-90 day window, get lost. (sorry, but this repeated prognostication that is always "over the next hill" is tiresome..)
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November 2006 looks busy.
 
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