A few reasons why I am shorting this bounce

Quote from vhehn:

looking back about a year supports trendfader and his method.the market hasnt been kind to late shorters trying to short weakness. there are many examples of the market looking like a perfect short in both indexes and stocks and it did a complete reversal. if you want to short this market you have to be quick on you feet and take profits fast. maybe this time will be different but too soon to tell right now.
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I always begin to scale into my short as soon as momentum weakens. I look at vix, resistance, old highs, volume and how the tape is fairing.

Usually I begin to cover quickly as soon as I am in a profit. In the case of IWM.. 50 cents is a decent profit point to start to scale out for profit. Ideally I try to make 2-5 points on the whole move.

When you go long in a bull market its much easier because the market is churning up slowly so its less forgiving. Thats why its safer and probably for a beginner the smarter thing to do.
 
There is actually a lady in the stock market wizards that makes a living only shorting. She averaged %15 a year throughout the 90's which is a amazing considering the bull rally we had.
Obvisouly once the bear market came in 2000 she made triple digits and cleaned up.

My point is.. if u can manage risk properly you can make money play both sides of the market regardless of what the major trend is. Sure it might look easier to just buy the dips in a bull market.. but in reality it only looks easy on the chart after the fact.

Most of the time market is just going nowhere stopping out traders that are chasing momo. The ideal strategy for some one like my in a bull market is to trade longs on full position and shorts on half position. This way I have some more odds on my side. That is exactly what I am doing now.

Talkers like Waggie have it glued in their head that the only way to make $ is to find a trend and ride it. If its so easy and thats all u have to do.. why do most people lose $? Is it really the discipline? Maybe.. but i just think their methods are flawed to begin with.


--MIKE
 
Quote from Trend Fader:

"The ideal strategy for some one like my in a bull market is to trade longs on full position and shorts on half position. This way I have some more odds on my side. That is exactly what I am doing now."

Oh, so now you are telling us that you have a full long position too?

Gee, how come you never, ever, have mentioned being LONG?

Perhaps it's because that you are full of crap and simply make stuff up as you go along?

I think so.
 
Quote from Trend Fader:

Covering some my shorts here. IWM almost down a point today.

I will remain 25% short again.

I will look to re enter short into a nice short covering rally.

So far so good.
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I have no opinion on direction right now... not clear although ST trend doesn't look much higher here. Triple witch this month is going to be wild. I have a wide strangle, and now long and short options on MNX; still look for some large move higher into mid-March... maybe week of expiry or Friday before. Just a hunch.

Full moon on 6th... so later this week could be real volatile.. and maybe it will be to the downside. :eek:

Like that you're covering to take some profits....! Who was it who said he made his fortune by always getting out a little too early? I sold some puts on MNX this morning.... a little too early also. :p


regards.

ICe
:cool:

p.s. it is amazing to me how the put/call ratio is no longer much of a contrarian indicator. Market being "run" by large hedge funds and when the index ratio is high.... most of the time lately the broad market has moved in that direction. This is entirely different from 90s. Any opinions on p/c ratio???
 
Quote from waggie945:

Quote from Trend Fader:

"The ideal strategy for some one like my in a bull market is to trade longs on full position and shorts on half position. This way I have some more odds on my side. That is exactly what I am doing now."

Oh, so now you are telling us that you have a full long position too?

Gee, how come you never, ever, have mentioned being LONG?

Perhaps it's because that you are full of crap and simply make stuff up as you go along?

I think so.
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Continue to bash as I continue to make money. You just dont understand what I saying and twist my words to make me look foolish. Overall I am not trading heavy to the short side right now as I did to the long side prior to Jan. If we were trading under the 50ma and in a downtrend.. I would be shorting at full strength.

Before January I was much more bullish on the market.. and thats where I was more prone to buying on the dips. Since I started this thread.. My bias has been to the short side.. which coincides to the blow off rally we had in Jan.

If i would of started this thread before January my bias would of been long and would have been more agressive there.



--MIKE
 
Quote from abogdan:

You know what, it has been a great call regardless what anybody says to you. I tip my hat.
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Thanks. March 1 is when I started to short and I already have locked in decent profits. I will trail out the rest of the position as we set up for a possible test of the lows.


--MIKE
 
Quote from Trend Fader on 3-03-2004

"The ideal strategy for some one like my in a bull market is to trade longs on full position and shorts on half position. This way I have some more odds on my side. That is exactly what I am doing now."

Trend Fader, please tell me how I am now "twisting" your words?

What part of That is exactly what I am doing now is it that you don't understand?

I'm sorry, but I don't buy your BS.
 
So . . .

What you are doing EXACTLY right now is:

"trade longs on full position and shorts on half position. This way I have some more odds on my side."

Above quote by Trend Fader 3/03/04
 
But for some reason you never have indicated that you actually have a "long full position". All you do is talk about how you are shorting, right?

Please point out to us where it is on this thread, or any others in the past 3 months that states that you have a "long full position".

I dare ya to prove me wrong.
 
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