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A few reasons why I am shorting this bounce
- Thread starter Trend Fader
- Start date
In reply, I hope to make a lot more money this year than I've in the last 7 months. If the market just chops around in a range similar to this last february range I should do as well as I would in a bull market.
I trade small cap biotech stocks. These stocks seem to have minds of their own as long as there isn't a serious market correction. They are manipulated by a dozen or so big shots who decide to increas or decrease the price. At least this is how it seems to be. My current position CRXA only has 45,000,000 shares floating.
I'd like to get more info on who controls them. No doubt I've a lot to learn which should make me a better investor.
I doubt I'll get chopped up. I'm quite reasonable, and I do a lot of research.
Restated question, does the average successful day, futures, or options trader make my %80 profit since July 2003 seem miniscule in comparison?
Thanks
RW
The NDX is down for 3 consecutive weeks and CSCO which accounts for 4.8% of the index is down for 6 consecutive weeks. Markets are obviously oversold in the intermediate term.
What happens to the NDX 20 weeks after a 3 consecutive down week period when the index is still trading above its 34-week moving average?
Answer: 11 out of 13 profitable signals.
What happens to the NDX 20 weeks after a 3 consecutive down week period when the index is still trading above its 34-week moving average?
Answer: 11 out of 13 profitable signals.
Your 80% return is not bad.
But then again, you'd be amazed at how much LUCK is often a factor in many people's returns but they usually cite their "superior research, hard work, discipline, etc.", as if that were enough to make them world capitalist #1.
Of course when they get blown out, those same people usually blame it on conditions, bad market, etc.
So, RETURN can only be compared to RISK taken, whether that risk was realized or not.
But then again, you'd be amazed at how much LUCK is often a factor in many people's returns but they usually cite their "superior research, hard work, discipline, etc.", as if that were enough to make them world capitalist #1.
Of course when they get blown out, those same people usually blame it on conditions, bad market, etc.
So, RETURN can only be compared to RISK taken, whether that risk was realized or not.
Quote from rowenwood:
In reply, I hope to make a lot more money this year than I've in the last 7 months. If the market just chops around in a range similar to this last february range I should do as well as I would in a bull market.
I trade small cap biotech stocks. These stocks seem to have minds of their own as long as there isn't a serious market correction. They are manipulated by a dozen or so big shots who decide to increas or decrease the price. At least this is how it seems to be. My current position CRXA only has 45,000,000 shares floating.
I'd like to get more info on who controls them. No doubt I've a lot to learn which should make me a better investor.
I guess I'll find out if I get chopped up soon enough. I doubt I will,
I'm quite reasonable and I do a lot of research. Thanks.
Restated question, does the average successful day trader make my %80 profit since July 2003 seem miniscule in comparison?
RW
yes I agree on all you wrote.
I went all the way up to 200% within three months then I dwindled all the way down to 30% and as of today I'm around 90% so that is nearly two doublings. Which means great luck or I'm doing something right. Of course I believe I've a good strategy, but my strategy isn't time tested nor shall it be. Once I get to 250%, hopefully this year, I'll pull out of the small caps for large caps.
My risk is a 10% loss. I put my stops at 10%. When I dwindled in late 2003 it was due to many bad trades in a row. In each trade I hit my stop and realized my loss. I'm glad to have experienced that because I learned a lot emotionally. I can say enough is enough which I think is probably one of the most difficult aspects of trading.
I went all the way up to 200% within three months then I dwindled all the way down to 30% and as of today I'm around 90% so that is nearly two doublings. Which means great luck or I'm doing something right. Of course I believe I've a good strategy, but my strategy isn't time tested nor shall it be. Once I get to 250%, hopefully this year, I'll pull out of the small caps for large caps.
My risk is a 10% loss. I put my stops at 10%. When I dwindled in late 2003 it was due to many bad trades in a row. In each trade I hit my stop and realized my loss. I'm glad to have experienced that because I learned a lot emotionally. I can say enough is enough which I think is probably one of the most difficult aspects of trading.
Trend followers can really get creamed in the choppy periods. They can get lots of false signals and tend to go long at the tops and short at the bottoms. Faders of course, will get creamed during the long trending periods. That's why there really is no one best style. Of course a really good trend follower would know when the chop is coming and stay in cash, or the converse for a fader. Personally, I don't fit into either category, not that I'm against either style.
Quote from Bolts:
Trend followers can really get creamed in the choppy periods. They can get lots of false signals and tend to go long at the tops and short at the bottoms. Faders of course, will get creamed during the long trending periods. That's why there really is no one best style. Of course a really good trend follower would know when the chop is coming and stay in cash, or the converse for a fader. Personally, I don't fit into either category, not that I'm against either style.
I agree... right now I believe we are in a trading range market. This is the longest period the Naz and Russell failed to make a new high. Thus rallies should be faded and drops bought.
Right now we are rallying so I am scaling a short entry. Of course I could be wrong and we could have a huge leg up.. but thats what trading is all about.
--MIKE