A few Macro Economics Questions

kmiklas said:
1. "The Fed can print an infinite amount of money"... the check/balance is INFLATION. They keep printing money... but they're playing with fire.. if prices rise faster than they can print... that's BAD, aka hyperinflation. If a beer costs $50, ehat good is it? They're not really making any progress, and in the extreme this kind of thing leads to wars and death. Inflation number was "hot" in May. 5% YOY! It raised an eyebrow.

2. If they quit purchasing then it's back to free market: price discovery, and real counterparties. This has been a big problem in the past; note the 2019 crash in the repo markets when they turned the taps off. [1]
This is risk of triggering a market crash if they taper. They've dubbed this a "Taper Tantrum."

3. I assume you mean "true 10-year YIELD." The Fed acting as counterparty is "artificial" manipulated demand, which keeps the yield low. If they stopped, demand would be from market participants... and who knows how much or little is there? I think that bankers would be hesitant to step in front of this trade. There is risk here. Bond prices would drop dramatically, driving yields up. (Bond yields rise as prices fall). Again, if use the repo example from 2019, I'd expect yields to spike up to 10% as price discovery occurs, and maybe settle back to 5%? This would cause a lot of Economists and Investors to $hit their pants... probably never happen. You can see why they're handling this whole tapering thing delicately.

Not advice: All my not-so-humble opinions.

ps Right behind tapering is a Fed fund rate increase. It now stands between 0 and 1/4%. They don't like this, because it's a tool missing from the box. Going to a negative FFR is a can of worms, and so they can't lower rates any more to stimulate the economy. They want to raise this rate ASAP.

1. https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/staff_reports/sr918.pdf
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Arguably one of the most misinformed posts I’ve read in some time.
 
TimtheEnchanter said:
1) How long can the FED keep its purchasing 120 billion a month of stuff?
2) After they quit purchasing and try to unload that, who will buy it?
3) What would be the true 10-year rate if they were to stop tomorrow?
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1. If you’re asking if there is a specific limit to how much the Fed can buy, the answer is tied to the availability of supply. The Feds strategy of asset purchases is to inject liquidity into the market. The Fed itself can add 0s to its balance sheet, so no limit on their end.
2. The Fed doesn’t need to unload— though if it does, it would be to remove liquidity. Fixed income securities are tied to a maturity (e.g. 6 months). So the Fed can hold to maturity and just choose not to reinvest. Sometimes they do sell back. For example, the Ny Fed next week will start selling back some mortgage securities, which tells us that they are looking to remove liquidity in the mortgage market (so mortgage rates *might* start creeping up). Who buys that stuff? Big investors with liabilities who need to match maturities to future outflows. Pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, and other institutional investors are the biggest buyers (both directly and indirectly).
3. If the Fed stopped what it was doing, the 10yr yield would drop, stock market would crash, and the economy would be hit with deflation.

This is because the developed world is in a deflationary super-cycle driven by a savings glut, low investment levels, and technology. If you go back to macro 101, you can read up on the Solow-Swan model, which identified the three determinants of growth: changes in labor force, changes in productivity, and changes in capital flow. Interest rates are tied to growth, through the “time value of money”, which means that lenders need to be compensated for opportunity costs. But if labor force growth is slow (or negative in some countries like Japan), and productivity flat, then interest rates will be low because there’s not a lot of growth. Capital will then flow to other regions experiencing higher growth rates.
 
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Reagan had it all wrong. Government is not the problem (well sometimes it is and sometimes it actually helps). The Fed is the problem.

It should not be the arbiter determining cost of money.

Yes I know, that is part of their dual mandate. It shouldn't be.

Although I was a kid I remember the 70's wage and price controls and how screwed up everything got.

This price controlled ZIRP asset bubble rigged economy is just waiting for the "right" pin to prick it.
Same as the last time and every other one since 1913.
 
TimtheEnchanter said:
1) How long can the FED keep its purchasing 120 billion a month of stuff?
2) After they quit purchasing and try to unload that, who will buy it?
3) What would be the true 10-year rate if they were to stop tomorrow?
More...

(1) As long as they want. Currency isn't real and they can create money at will by having banks lend. CPI doesn't track real inflation so as long as they continually change the definition there's no problem with them being majority owner of the top 10 stocks in the S&P.
(2) They won't because unloading will collapse the economy.
(3) Worthless.
 
Fed Reserve Company has a Hella Edge -
Need Money - Print Money
Who in their right mind would give that edge up, I axe you.

The smarter alternative would be to grease the right palms
set up residence in multiple international locations
and ride that pony into the ground, lay low, rinse repeat.
How many times has this happened throughout history?

This ain't their first rodeo.
The Fed is people with the same proclivities as any other human.
No better, no worse.

They're in the club and most of us ain't, (All of us? ynk)
Would you give up your certified counterfitting mocheen
or the contacts worldwide that it spins off?

How would you like your own central banking system?
Go for it! First, get ready to be patient. Generations.
It takes a Loooong time to make this shit come together.
Get in line.
Word to the wise? Don't be there when the fit hits the shan.

C'mon, get with the program, step it UP!
What's Andrew Jackson know, Anyway?
He Coulda Had It All. Chump.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Jackson

" " " " " "
"...In Congress, Henry Clay led the effort to reauthorize the Second Bank of the United States. Jackson, regarding the Bank as a corrupt institution that benefited the wealthy at the expense of ordinary Americans, vetoed the renewal of its charter. After a lengthy struggle, Jackson and his allies thoroughly dismantled the Bank. In 1835, Jackson became the only president to completely pay off the national debt, fulfilling a longtime goal. While Jackson pursued numerous reforms designed to eliminate waste and corruption, his presidency marked the beginning of the ascendancy of the party "spoils system" in American politics.".

Keep Stacking! Aint Nobody Gonna Be Doin It FoYa...

money 7997.jpg

money stack.jpg



 
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