A few Macro Economics Questions

TimtheEnchanter

TimtheEnchanter

1) How long can the FED keep its purchasing 120 billion a month of stuff?
2) After they quit purchasing and try to unload that, who will buy it?
3) What would be the true 10-year rate if they were to stop tomorrow?
 
I have a question, if anyone can answer, I will be glad.
while trading futures, is there any service that provide the details about how many trades were carried out at bid and how many at ask during the day or during 4 hour candle?
 
coolman said:
I have a question, if anyone can answer, I will be glad.
while trading futures, is there any service that provide the details about how many trades were carried out at bid and how many at ask during the day or during 4 hour candle?
More...
This is the economics section and you are hijacking my question...yours should be in futures or trading...but the answer is DOM dept of the market wherein some platforms you can see the number of bids and offers.
 
TimtheEnchanter said:
1) How long can the FED keep its purchasing 120 billion a month of stuff?

2) After they quit purchasing and try to unload that, who will buy it?
3) What would be the true 10-year rate if they were to stop tomorrow?
More...
1. "The Fed can print an infinite amount of money"... the check/balance is INFLATION. They keep printing money... but they're playing with fire.. if prices rise faster than they can print... that's BAD, aka hyperinflation. If a beer costs $50, ehat good is it? They're not really making any progress, and in the extreme this kind of thing leads to wars and death. Inflation number was "hot" in May. 5% YOY! It raised an eyebrow.

2. If they quit purchasing then it's back to free market: price discovery, and real counterparties. This has been a big problem in the past; note the 2019 crash in the repo markets when they turned the taps off. [1]
This is risk of triggering a market crash if they taper. They've dubbed this a "Taper Tantrum."

3. I assume you mean "true 10-year YIELD." The Fed acting as counterparty is "artificial" manipulated demand, which keeps the yield low. If they stopped, demand would be from market participants... and who knows how much or little is there? I think that bankers would be hesitant to step in front of this trade. There is risk here. Bond prices would drop dramatically, driving yields up. (Bond yields rise as prices fall). Again, if use the repo example from 2019, I'd expect yields to spike up to 10% as price discovery occurs, and maybe settle back to 5%? This would cause a lot of Economists and Investors to $hit their pants... probably never happen. You can see why they're handling this whole tapering thing delicately.

Not advice: All my not-so-humble opinions.

ps Right behind tapering is a Fed fund rate increase. It now stands between 0 and 1/4%. They don't like this, because it's a tool missing from the box. Going to a negative FFR is a can of worms, and so they can't lower rates any more to stimulate the economy. They want to raise this rate ASAP.

1. https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/staff_reports/sr918.pdf
 
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:) I did not mean to hijack. It was my 1st post and I was unable to figure out, where to post my question? and even how to post. :)
thanks for your reply though.
can you please help me recommending some cheap platform to give me, no of bids and offers in a given time frame like, daily or 4 hours?
 
kmiklas said:
1. "The Fed can print an infinite amount of money"... the check/balance is INFLATION. They keep printing money... but they're playing with fire..
More...
Taper tantrum was 2013 (first time anyway), otherwise agree with your other comments.
 
coolman said:
:) I did not mean to hijack. It was my 1st post and I was unable to figure out, where to post my question? and even how to post. :)
thanks for your reply though.
can you please help me recommending some cheap platform to give me, no of bids and offers in a given time frame like, daily or 4 hours?
More...
Here please:

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/forums/order-execution.30/

Click the green rectangle that says start a new thread.

Have fun.
 
coolman said:
I have a question, if anyone can answer, I will be glad.
while trading futures, is there any service that provide the details about how many trades were carried out at bid and how many at ask during the day or during 4 hour candle?
More...

Your thinking "Time & Sales" which is a common feature in most platforms. It is as fundamental as charting.

When manually trading, you set it to the resolution that you can digest, say 4 hours. You should expect a single "print" aggregated by your chosen duration (every 4 hours).

The prints will be typically color-coded:

Red means price is ticking down at that trade price/time/quantity i.e. Bids are getting hit
Green means price is ticking up at that trade price/time/quantity i.e. Offers are getting lifted
 
xandman said:
Your thinking "Time & Sales" which is a common feature in most platforms. It is as fundamental as charting.

When manually trading, you set it to the resolution that you can digest, say 4 hours. You should expect a single "print" aggregated by your chosen duration (every 4 hours).

The prints will be typically color-coded:

Red means price is ticking down at that trade price/time/quantity i.e. Bids are getting hit
Green means price is ticking up at that trade price/time/quantity i.e. Offers are getting lifted
More...

XAND! LTNS! Oh, I have so missed your little dog with the bondage ball!
 
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