If there's a chart imbedded in this article, will someone please post it?
For some reason my browser is filtering it if it's there.
Thanks.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a.aNom_itEAo
Stocks May Be Destined to Drop Below Marchâs Lows: Chart of Day
Share | Email | Print | A A A
By David Wilson
June 22 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. and European stocks are destined to fall below Marchâs lows if bear-market history is any guide, according to Jim Reid, a strategist at Deutsche Bank AG.
Share prices tend to hit bottom âat extremely cheap levelsâ relative to earnings during so-called secular bear markets, Reid wrote five days ago in his first equity strategy report. Secular bears consist of multiple rallies and declines, with each slump producing lower valuations than the prior one.
The CHART OF THE DAY shows the Standard & Poorâs 500 Indexâs price-earnings ratio since 1900, based on data compiled by Yale Universityâs Robert Shiller and cited in Reidâs report.
Shiller calculated the P/E ratio at 6.6 in September 1982, just before the 1980s bull market started. The gauge sank to less than six in the depths of the Great Depression and at the beginning of the 1920s. This year, it has stayed above 13.
âHistory tells us that at some point in the next decade there will be much more stressed valuations than today and a once-in-a-generation buying opportunity,â wrote Reid, who previously focused on credit-market strategy.
Even âa large rallyâ later this year and into 2010 may not be enough to prevent this scenario from unfolding, he added. The S&P 500 has climbed as much as 40 percent from its March 9 lows. Reidâs European benchmark, a local-currency version of the MSCI Europe Index, has risen as much as 33 percent.
(To save a copy of the chart, click here.)
To contact the reporter on this story: David Wilson in New York at dwilson@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: June 22, 2009 11:22 EDT
For some reason my browser is filtering it if it's there.
Thanks.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a.aNom_itEAo
Stocks May Be Destined to Drop Below Marchâs Lows: Chart of Day
Share | Email | Print | A A A
By David Wilson
June 22 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. and European stocks are destined to fall below Marchâs lows if bear-market history is any guide, according to Jim Reid, a strategist at Deutsche Bank AG.
Share prices tend to hit bottom âat extremely cheap levelsâ relative to earnings during so-called secular bear markets, Reid wrote five days ago in his first equity strategy report. Secular bears consist of multiple rallies and declines, with each slump producing lower valuations than the prior one.
The CHART OF THE DAY shows the Standard & Poorâs 500 Indexâs price-earnings ratio since 1900, based on data compiled by Yale Universityâs Robert Shiller and cited in Reidâs report.
Shiller calculated the P/E ratio at 6.6 in September 1982, just before the 1980s bull market started. The gauge sank to less than six in the depths of the Great Depression and at the beginning of the 1920s. This year, it has stayed above 13.
âHistory tells us that at some point in the next decade there will be much more stressed valuations than today and a once-in-a-generation buying opportunity,â wrote Reid, who previously focused on credit-market strategy.
Even âa large rallyâ later this year and into 2010 may not be enough to prevent this scenario from unfolding, he added. The S&P 500 has climbed as much as 40 percent from its March 9 lows. Reidâs European benchmark, a local-currency version of the MSCI Europe Index, has risen as much as 33 percent.
(To save a copy of the chart, click here.)
To contact the reporter on this story: David Wilson in New York at dwilson@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: June 22, 2009 11:22 EDT
