A crude look at Crude

Quote from jjgallow:

Thank you kindly Apex,


Let me first say that, despite our opposite sentiments, I really appreciate your expertise. Hopefully, if we trade well, we can both make money even though one of us will be fighting the market to make it, lol.

You've given me a lot to mull over, but what struck me most noticeably was the rule of wave 4 not crossing wave 1.
thank you apex
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Thanks again for the remarks. Well we can definately both profit having different sentiments, so that is definately a plus.

Im going to be blunt and honest with you. I only use ew analysis when it is clear as day. When something is kinda fishy or could be this, could be that I just ignore it and concentrate on other factors. You will find its very subjective so its best to just stick with the bare basics.

In a classic elliot wave, yes, wave 4 must not overlap wave 1. This is why I disagree with the chart you posted at the end of your post. I would call that a wedge. A 5 wave move where wave 4 overlaps wave 1.

With a typical ewave, wave 3 is the most extended. So in oil, I would say its unlikely that its just completing a wave 4 if I am understanding your count correctly. (see attached chart to see if this is the wave count you were thinking of)

I like how you made the comment "less likely" at the end of your post. This shows that your thinking with odds and probabilities and not sure things. The truth is, oil can do whatever it wants, but it is your goal as a trader to accumulate edges and trade with probabilities in your favour.

Best Regards,
Apex
 

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This is a great example without 20/20 hindsight. You can see that we could possibly be in the process of creating a bearish wedge within a wave 5 on a weekly, daily, and 81minute. It will be nice to watch this unravel....
 

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Thank you apex,

I really appreciate it!

It will take me a while to really absorb it all. My first thought is that I am not opposed at all to the bullish wedge interpretation.

If I understand that correctly, that would mean we still have a wave 5 down...possibly a double-bottom at 50, then a strong bullish movement.

I've also considered looking over a large time period...we've just experienced one of crude's greatest price rises in its history, which means that we may still be in a corrective wave.

I have attached a rough idea for this in the chart below. Again...wave 4 rule is broken...sort of (although this was not a front-month at the time)
 

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Wonering if I should cover here Crude is very nasty and its just to darn early in the day for it to keep going down, it never does when Im short : ) Still holding but really itchy trigger finger.
 
Wondering is what I meant to say, Anyhow the longer it hovers above 58.00 now they might try to do a squeeze Crude has become a daytraders dream and these position trades dont really work unless you buy at the bottom of the channel or short at the top.
 
Quote from kashirin:

what' happens now is a complete nonsense
oil can move $2 in less than an hour
it lost any connection with reality.

Although it's fun and good money but Im afraid soon it might be $10 swings within a day
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There was a refinery fire at a Valero refinery in Delaware. The rumor hit and the thing took off. This wasn't just a technical bounce, but I agree

Buy the rumor sell the fact...
 
Well well well,

Oil's at $60.

Again.

In the recent past, I'd shorted it at $60, but I'm an on-board bull this time.

As shown on my chart, resistance has been broken. The move looks very determined, and I can't imagine any resistance until at least $61.32, short term.

($62 long term)

I have not been a bull for a while, but lately my bearish trades have been cutting into my profits. I guess we'll see how this side works out :)
 

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the problem here is not technical indicators but what US government wants

they decide what oil price will be and not the marker

currently I'm almost sure there is no chance for oil to go beyond 60
 
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