A crude look at Crude

Quote from kashirin:

I think correction is now from 50 to 60 and trend is down

oil moved down to 50s without external intervention just because of the weather

so another 10 $ after negotiations between USA, saudi Arabia and Exxon and BP

Don't you understand that oil terrorist tax must be stopped?

Politicians in the USA eventually understood that. That's why oil moved from 78 to 60 and not because 78 was too fast

Oil is not the market now. Oil is the terrorists main weapon. ANd the main direction now is not Iraq or Iran but the oil price
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You are certainly entitled to your opinion...I however, disagree with it.

Do some research on T. Boone Pickens and his outlook... He is to energy futures what Warren Buffet is to business--I wouldn't want to be betting against him. The research might save you a lot of money, that is unless this is purely opinion based. It being that this site is called Elite Trader, I doubt that is the case.
 
Quote from kashirin:

Wow! 2 points in 1 hour
What bad happened?

Although I strongly beleive doesn't matter what happens in the world oil won't be allowed into 70s this year.
It's political now. Bush eventually has to accept that most of oil money go to enemies or at least not friends.
And Exxon with BP will follow the course.
Oil will be in low 40s by end of the year
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A force majeure at Oxy's Elk Hills field in California.


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=apgN5oAOfGng&refer=home
 
Thanks Jays,

Wow, that's some relatively insignificant news to cause a $2 rise. I take two things from that:

Oil is VERY easily triggered right now...strong bullish sign.

There has to be a retracement from something that trivial. at least for the moment.
 
Some very good points made here.


I'll throw in my view:

Supply vs Demand...

World oil demand going up.

Cheap oil supplies going down.


Politics plays a roll, but can be easily misinterpreted.

I'm long on oil..though not every day (wish I hadda stayed long today!)
 
we just "spiked" over $60 again ...

in march 07 futures ... perhaps some of this was due to

"stops" being triggered in jittery markets and this conditions

:eek:
 
the interesting thing that huge orders were in range 59.9-60

someone needed to get 60 printed. ALthough I don't really think we broke 60 support till we see 60 during regular hours
 
Good points, definitely a psychological push for 60 and definitely many short players stopped out.

I think the market will need to digest the idea of $60 crude, resetting stops and entry points.

I still feel as if a retracement is in order tonight. Friday should be strong.

Then there's next week...do we have any cold weather left? I'm wondering about its strength then.
 
Quote from kashirin:

the interesting thing that huge orders were in range 59.9-60

someone needed to get 60 printed. ALthough I don't really think we broke 60 support till we see 60 during regular hours
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You mean resistance. Support is below the market, resistance is above. Unless I'm missing something I think you used the wrong word.

It may well break 60 tomorrow, but as Jggallow points out, this was a big run up in a short period of time for a small amount of crude in terms of what we actually produce and consume as a nation (don't quote me, but this is a 120,000 a day field, and I believe we produce between 11-13 Million bbls. a day, and consume 21-23 Million bbls. out of a worldwide total of 84 or 85 million bbls.--if someone thinks those numbers are off, please correct me)....
 
Well, we got $60 printed.

I still swear I'm a long term bull, but:


Next week, I see down and I'm reasonably confident in it.

That doesn't mean anyone reading this should trade based on my confidence, but personally I already have my short in.

I thought about waiting until the close, as it may close above $60.

....but then I remembered yesterday, when I thought it would go up but still missed on $2 action out of waiting for the "right moment".

This may be more of a one-week play, or at least multi-day play.
 
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