A couple of Hugh Hendry trading ideas

m22au · Feb 3, 2009

I've seen Hendry on CNBC Europe a number of times. While I like his confidence, it can tend towards the side of arrogance on occasion, especially where he makes ad hominem attacks against other guests.

To paraphrase Hendry, he sees an investment in gold now as like those who open a book and flip to the end.

While he is bullish on gold "long-term" (without defining what long-term is), he thinks it will go below 700 USD per ounce (and even lower) before it goes above 1030 USD.

More importantly, he is more confident about buying government bonds at current levels than he is with buying gold at current levels.

For what it's worth, I understand his thesis, and think that he could be right.

However I'm concerned about maintaining the purchasing power of my "money" and I'm long gold. Central banks and governments could continue to take increasingly extreme action, which may result in gold not seeing 750 USD again.

Quote from Debaser82:

I like him but why is this dude bearish on gold?

That is like so contrarian..

4XQs · Feb 3, 2009

Hendry is a cheeky b*stard - which I appreciate

I think I agree with him on gold. It's bound to break up sooner or later, but I think it might be a year or more away.

Daal · Feb 3, 2009

Quote from m22au:

I've seen Hendry on CNBC Europe a number of times. While I like his confidence, it can tend towards the side of arrogance on occasion, especially where he makes ad hominem attacks against other guests.

To paraphrase Hendry, he sees an investment in gold now as like those who open a book and flip to the end.

While he is bullish on gold "long-term" (without defining what long-term is), he thinks it will go below 700 USD per ounce (and even lower) before it goes above 1030 USD.

More importantly, he is more confident about buying government bonds at current levels than he is with buying gold at current levels.

For what it's worth, I understand his thesis, and think that he could be right.

However I'm concerned about maintaining the purchasing power of my "money" and I'm long gold. Central banks and governments could continue to take increasingly extreme action, which may result in gold not seeing 750 USD again.

I agree on gold. I hedge 50% of my USD exposure due my costs being in BRL (the other 50% I consider a risky trade in the dollar) and I began to use a bit of gold for that along with yen, cad and eur. Its hard to tell where gold is headed for the short-term but it had so much thrown at it and it still holds up, the big collapses in gold in 2008 came when the stock market was crashing which suggests it was due delevering by etfs, hfs, etc

Debaser82 · Feb 3, 2009

Quote from 4XQs:

Hendry is a cheeky b*stard - which I appreciate

I think I agree with him on gold. It's bound to break up sooner or later, but I think it might be a year or more away.

Could you share your view on as to why you have a feeling gold is overvalued in it's current trading range?

Cheers.

4XQs · Feb 3, 2009

That's solely from charting, nothing fundamental. So, I'm not really making an argument about why - just sharing what I think. (On the net it's pretty useless, but like you imply: it's interesting to hear why people form their opinions).

makloda · Mar 2, 2009

AK100 · Mar 2, 2009

STOP THE GOLD BUBBLE!

Gold can't go ANY higher from here, I mean at current prices it's DOWN 3% on the last 365 days.

Man, these bubbles can get out of control can't they?

A couple of Hugh Hendry trading ideas

m22au

4XQs

Daal

Debaser82

4XQs

makloda

AK100