a comparison of moving averages ... and introducing a new one.

C

carlberky

The chart shows the simple (green), weighted(red), exponential(blue) averages ... and what I've named the Fib Weighted average (black).
The worst performing is the simple average ... and clearly the best is the Fib.
Obviously, the Fib is not as smooth, but if there is any interest, I'll give the formula.
 

Attachments

Quote from carlberky:

The chart shows the simple (green), weighted(red), exponential(blue) averages ... and what I've named the Fib Weighted average (black).
The worst performing is the simple average ... and clearly the best is the Fib.
Obviously, the Fib is not as smooth, but if there is any interest, I'll give the formula.
More...

I notice the fib wtd stays closer to the price line, but I'm most interested in what happens when price pulls back to the MA.

Could I trouble you to post this with candlesticks so we can see which MA is 'respected'?
 
Quote from justrading:

I notice the fib wtd stays closer to the price line, but I'm most interested in what happens when price pulls back to the MA.

Could I trouble you to post this with candlesticks so we can see which MA is 'respected'?
More...


Chart attached.

I never mentioned that the averages are 21 periods of the closing price. The heavy stair-stepping line is of the close.
 

Attachments

Quote from carlberky:

Chart attached.

I never mentioned that the averages are 21 periods of the closing price. The heavy stair-stepping line is of the close.
More...

Thanks, it's interesting. If you are willing to share the formula I'd like to test it myself.

No rush, I'm in the midst of rebuilding all my charts so it'll take me a while.
 
Quote from carlberky:
----simple (green)....
----weighted(red)....
----exponential(blue)....
----Fib Weighted average (black).
----worst performing is the simple average....
----clearly the best is the Fib.
----Fib is not as smooth....
----if there is any interest, I'll give the formula.
More...
1) What does it mean for a moving average to be "best"? :confused:
2) The smooth average should keep you in trades "longer" because it is not as sensitive to more recent price data compared to the other types of moving averages that can get shaken out of positions faster because of price spikes. :cool:
3) Once again, will you be able to hold NG positions through the "big" reports where the moving average will get you out of positions "too late"? :eek:
 
I'm guessing Fib Weighted means it's just an exponential average with α = 1,618? How is it clearly the best one? Based on what?
 
Quote from nazzdack:

1) What does it mean for a moving average to be "best"? :confused:
2) The smooth average should keep you in trades "longer" because it is not as sensitive to more recent price data compared to the other types of moving averages that can get shaken out of positions faster because of price spikes. :cool:
3) Once again, will you be able to hold NG positions through the "big" reports where the moving average will get you out of positions "too late"? :eek:
More...
1) "best" to me means closer to that which is being averaged.
2) Rather than be kept in trades "longer", I'm more concerned with getting out of a bad trade sooner.
3) Once again, I don't care about no stinken reports! There is NO moving average that Id use that will keep me in a position after a spike .
Thank you for your comments. You made me realize the importance of using "open" prices for the average. enabling a trigger stop. Almost a whole day of hurt can be avoided by not using the "close".
 
Quote from justrading:

Thanks, it's interesting. If you are willing to share the formula I'd like to test it myself.

No rush, I'm in the midst of rebuilding all my charts so it'll take me a while.
More...
Sure thing. Let me know when you are ready and I'll email it to you.
 
Quote from Trader.Fighter:

I like the Jurik MAs, a little pricey but works for me.
More...
Would it be possible for you to post a chart of it, as well as a weighted average?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top