Buy in August? That seems a nebulous idea to buy just before the historically two worst months of the year. Buying in January is higher percentage, and if it doesn't work out quickly, stay out for the rest of the year---if you aren't a trader.
A comparison of 4 bear markets and where we are at today...
- Thread starter Port1385
- Start date
Buy in August? That seems a nebulous idea to buy just before the historically two worst months of the year. Buying in January is higher percentage, and if it doesn't work out quickly, stay out for the rest of the year---if you aren't a trader.
===============Quote from Port1385:
I found this on another site. This isnt a chart I created.
Here are my observations:
1) In 1974 and 2002, the bear market followed down a well defined path before there was one big fallout which marked the bottom. In the current bear market, this same fallout has come much earlier.
2) We are right around similiar levels where there were notable turning points in past bear markets.
3) In the 1974 and 2002 bear markets, the index revisited similiar areas (double bottom) before moving higher.
4) The 1929 initial drop and the late 2008 drop do look very similiar.
Im going to look for a re-test of the old lows and then for the bull market to begin. However, that last drop we had was very sharp quite similiar to the 1929 drop. Sometimes a high volume selloff does not mark a bottom, but the beginning of a long and perilous drop.
Not exactly sure about the 1929 crash,party caused by taxes/ tariffs;
thought the DOW went down 80%+/ -peak to valley like QQQ did last bear????????????????????????????????????????????
[NasdaQQQ,$120 area downtrended to 20.00 area, peak to valley/all data;
wisdom is profitable to direct.]
Maybe the start of a bull market in real estate,yes;
and auto's, technically speaking.Maybe , maybe not in autos.I am still thinking about buying/leasing/selling cars 11 hours per week.
Dave Ramsey [FOX business]says to buy a new car, you should be a millionaire [7 figures];
agree/agree, i may buy/rent/lease a a new car/ demostrator.
If you know how to sell [most auto salesmen do NOT, no wonder auto dealers go out of business so much],
you can get a good deal on ''demonstrator''
====================================
Quote from ess1096:
Looking at the very long term chart, it is not at all out of the question that the market could drop to the trendline. So far the horizontal support has held since the mid-late 1990's. SO FAR. But if that support gives way there is a long bear ahead.
I doubt we will see a raging bull market again for quite a while. IMO, the chart from 1995-2020 is more likely going to look like it did from 1963-1983. It will probably drift in a sideways range until it hits the trendline and resumes the long term Bull market.
Looks like a log chart.....do you have one that has a constant scale?
It is a waste of time to look at long term index charts like the Dow and S&P 500. The indexes are WEIGHTED and are susceptive to number foolery.
The indexes MEAN NOTHING. Their values MEAN NOTHING. They are no more than an instrument used to fuck with the public's mind. You cannot take a CUMULATIVE index and apply ANY LOGIC TO ITS TRUE VALUE OVER TIME. You cannot take ANY secondary data generated based ON THAT INDEX and apply it with logic OVER TIME.
Components move IN AND OUT of the index over time. You cannot judge the value of the index because it is not a static fixed representation of the 30 same components. It is worthless to spend time judging any valuation based on the indexes.
This is where the naive trader and investor fall victim.
You should be focusing on the 30 COMPONENTS of the Dow Jones Industrials instead of the entire index itself. Focus on the PERCENTAGE MOVE of each component and its history.
The indexes MEAN NOTHING. Their values MEAN NOTHING. They are no more than an instrument used to fuck with the public's mind. You cannot take a CUMULATIVE index and apply ANY LOGIC TO ITS TRUE VALUE OVER TIME. You cannot take ANY secondary data generated based ON THAT INDEX and apply it with logic OVER TIME.
Components move IN AND OUT of the index over time. You cannot judge the value of the index because it is not a static fixed representation of the 30 same components. It is worthless to spend time judging any valuation based on the indexes.
This is where the naive trader and investor fall victim.
You should be focusing on the 30 COMPONENTS of the Dow Jones Industrials instead of the entire index itself. Focus on the PERCENTAGE MOVE of each component and its history.
Quote from Port1385:
This is another chart to make you think...it took me a few minutes to decipher it.
It is always a safe bet to get out of the market as the 10-year annualized return approaches 14%. It is the best time to get in the market as the 10 year annualized return approaches 8.5 percent.
We are still at around 6% which makes me think there is a little more downroom to go. The average of the 3 low appoints is around 8.763%.
Assuming the next turning point in the S&P is 8.5%, what would be the assumed price at that turning point? I used a simple proportion and came up with a target price of 650.
I could be wrong in doing my math. I used simple high school algebra. Please correct me if I am wrong.
(5.96X931.8)/8.763= 633.74
I have arrived at the mid-600s as my target price on the S&P through many other methods. For example, I used the NYSE margin debt data, a few simple trend lines on Excel and some simple proportions to arrive at that mark. I used a few simple charts to arrive at that mark as well.
All of the data that I see shows a target of the mid-600s where I believe the bottom will be.
Since you are the one screaming in previous threads about the market collapsing what do you think of that chart above?
Im playing devils advocate here. Surely you would be more inclined to go a BULL short term than a BEAR based on that data. A 5% drop in the INDEX isnt going to kill you at this point, will it?
You will lose more than 5% screwing around playing daytrading games this year than if you were to just buy 100% of your portfolio with SPY and sit tight.
Down at these levels you short the spikes and buy the dips. Looking at 10 year horizons is crystal ball Ms. Cleo foolery.
What did I say here previously:
They are no more than an instrument used to fuck with the public's mind
Having traded the markets for over 25 years, I'd say you are making a huge ass assumption of my cognitive skills and knowledge over that time.