Options are a zero sum game. Therefore, if options are priced efficiently, and if the pricing assumptions in your "probability calculator" are the same as those used to price the options, then with no bid/ask spread and no commissions you would expect *every* option trade when opened to have an expected value of 0. Throw in commissions and the highly non-negligible bid/ask spreads that options have and *every* trade will start with a negative expected value.
The bottom line: You can not make money in options unless you have an edge, either in predicting the movement of the underlying prices or in predicting the change in volatility (or both). But this is true of many other trading instruments, such as futures. Every long term successful trader has an edge, it really is that simple. The options calculator in TOS will not give you that edge.
The bottom line: You can not make money in options unless you have an edge, either in predicting the movement of the underlying prices or in predicting the change in volatility (or both). But this is true of many other trading instruments, such as futures. Every long term successful trader has an edge, it really is that simple. The options calculator in TOS will not give you that edge.
