A casino has only a slight edge so...
- Thread starter harrytrader
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Quote from harrytrader:
... what make you think objectively that you have much more edge than a casino in Stock Market.
Question to distract for this we to compensate bad news from the World.
In my opinion, a trader must have a better edge than a casino in order to survive. The smaller your edge is, the more you must rely on the law of large numbers to realize your edge. Stated differently, the smaller your edge is, the more trading capital you must have if you expect the law of averages to kick in and save you, assuming reasonably conservative trade size relative to capital. Properly capitalized casinos can withstand far more adversity than most traders. It also helps that their probabilities are crystallized, whereas the "probabilities" referred to in market parlance have more to do with uncertainty. Market "probabilities" lack the hard numbers of mathematical games. This further enhances the risk to the market participant, thereby requiring an even better edge.
This is blatant irresponsibility on your part. Upon reading your first post, I rushed out to the Bellagio high rollers room and bet the farm on 22 black. Just as the ball landed, the power went off (see CNN news) and as I was standing there in complete darkness, all I could remember was the croupier's announcement of "game aborted - all bets to be returned". Feeling somewhat relieved, I pushed my way through to the wheel and aimed my keychain flashlight at the little white ball. It was on 22 black. In an effort to calm down, I sprinted head-on into a 3 million dollar Monet and found myself executing a perfect swan dive into the lake below, where I spent the rest of the day doing the backstroke.
You should be.
Doesn't atlantic city gambling give best probability in the US? Due to the option to buy insurance? anyone have any feedback on this? heard that they do and i know this guy who goes to AC just ebcause of this. anyways.... i don't even gamble...
Unless you count cards, you should always decline the insurance bet, which has a house edge of about 7%. Needless to say, your friend will find insurance everywhere, not only in AC.
Monet or Money 
If it is really Monet you are a barbarian against the Artistic Culture
If it is really Monet you are a barbarian against the Artistic Culture I fully agree notably with the uncertainty aspect I underlined in past post. Uncertainty is different from standard deviation : it is a big error to consider that standard deviation is a good mesure of risk. In statistical process control quality field, it is considered that a system is under control, that is to say not risky or stable, if the standard deviation is constant (it doesn't mean nevertheless that the quality is good as it depends on the average also). So the real risk is not mesured only by standard deviation per se because a standard deviation that is constant can just be forecasted and so discounted in present value and so risk covered and so not a real risk. It is the supplement part that is not predictable that constitutes the real risk. That's why hedge fund or people can be fooled by having found an edge because they only count on the average and suppose that standard deviation is constant whereas it is not. That's why all the VAR theories about risk management are just fake because it is unrealistic and in fact creates even more systemic risk into the market as they don't take into account the uncertainty part. And so leverage are overexaggerated.
