A Brief History of my Strategy Development

Take the time to try and prove the system doesn't work. If you can't then possibly it does.

Right now you are looking for examples of hammer signals that hit their targets. Look for hammer signals that didn't.

appreciate your finger pointing. I take my time to think it through and share the thoughts related to an example based on your comment.
 
Take the time to try and prove the system doesn't work. If you can't then possibly it does.

Right now you are looking for examples of hammer signals that hit their targets. Look for hammer signals that didn't.

Thank you again. I took my time: Thoughts related were, that counter measures are necessary, if the inital trading setup doesnt work out.

Besides I am doing a manuel backtesting. I know that is prone to hindsight and thelike but relying on strict parameters - not to trick myself. This is a process and like I don't programm code today like I did 7 years before I know I wont do backtesting in the future like I do it know. But I feel this is a good way to start things and to work it through. Thoughts always welcome.
Having a closer look to backtest setups where setup DOENST work out ... and all writing down im my backtest journal.
 
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So I added a counter measure plan. Here comes a live paper trade (wooo), I would take.

  • Complying with my set of Rules
  • Added a Counter Strategy
What I can see here:
  • daily looks messy but weekly shows me, that is no trend but a range
  • on the weekly i spot this as a support area
  • daily: on the left I see some Hammers and candles with long wigs down. These represent to me possible resistance on the move up
  • anyhow, price is cheap
  • I would expect, this setup to fail in the first place, but to be successfull in a second attemp - let see =)

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What still confuses me:
  • that correction comes in waves of downturn (red) and upturn (green) moves (from the High in the chart of the Inverted Hammer).
  • That downturn moves seem to loose momentum, but then suddently that immense red candle emerges
  • Also a tiny Hammer is able to stop that downturn AND to close (or will, not yet and of trading) green.
  • So who is in charge? Who controls and why? I figure that out and will come up with a explanation, that makes sense for me =)
 
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