A Beginner's Price Action Trading Journal (mostly es, Al Brooks style)
- Thread starter futurescat
- Start date
Good luck. We retails need luck.
12/4 MON
Meh day. One of the sub-systems got its timing perfect today. The operator (yours truly) had to interfere, and closed a good position too soon.
Spent the weekend digging into my system. Got about one month's worth of rough stats to work with (October was too random to be useful <-- no clear trade labels no good idea which edge was being exploited, was mostly relying on PA tricks in isolation) -- so far, can see I am primarily trading three sub-systems ("setups" I guess). Each sub is influenced by
rules, operator interference (human discretion), and its probability-payout profile. Also ran a little simulation to see if the probability part may be contributing randomness to the results.
My takeaway-- one sub-system is probably garbage and I will not waste much energy or time on it for now. The other two show more promise. however, operator interference was a consistent problem. in addition, there aren't enough data points for stats to converge yet (each sub-system fires about once a day, simulation shows 50-100+ trials are needed for numbers to work under my assumptions, which is binomial 55/45 edge 1R *).
*in my assumption, the system (rules + discretion) has a very small edge because 1/ the rules aren't stress tested, also not super well defined, 2/ discretion was adding randomness, a consequence of having weak rules.
5m es
Meh day. One of the sub-systems got its timing perfect today. The operator (yours truly) had to interfere, and closed a good position too soon.
Spent the weekend digging into my system. Got about one month's worth of rough stats to work with (October was too random to be useful <-- no clear trade labels no good idea which edge was being exploited, was mostly relying on PA tricks in isolation) -- so far, can see I am primarily trading three sub-systems ("setups" I guess). Each sub is influenced by
rules, operator interference (human discretion), and its probability-payout profile. Also ran a little simulation to see if the probability part may be contributing randomness to the results.
My takeaway-- one sub-system is probably garbage and I will not waste much energy or time on it for now. The other two show more promise. however, operator interference was a consistent problem. in addition, there aren't enough data points for stats to converge yet (each sub-system fires about once a day, simulation shows 50-100+ trials are needed for numbers to work under my assumptions, which is binomial 55/45 edge 1R *).
*in my assumption, the system (rules + discretion) has a very small edge because 1/ the rules aren't stress tested, also not super well defined, 2/ discretion was adding randomness, a consequence of having weak rules.
5m es
12/5 TUE
small trading range day, coiling tighter into nfp.
es 5m
small trading range day, coiling tighter into nfp.
es 5m
12/6 WED
Trend day.
5m es
Trend day.
5m es
12/7 THU
Ok day.
Holiday markets getting a bit lazy, replaying a lot of recent programs, with moves getting more efficient over each repeat.
5m es
Ok day.
Holiday markets getting a bit lazy, replaying a lot of recent programs, with moves getting more efficient over each repeat.
5m es
12/8 FRI
NFP. ES contract rolling week will start
es 5m
NFP. ES contract rolling week will start
es 5m
12/11 MON
Small Monday before CPI, before FOMC, during es roll week.
5m es
Small Monday before CPI, before FOMC, during es roll week.
5m es
12/12 TUE
CPI report day. "Bad" news != bad news, the market firmly held a bullish bias.
Did not have the right trading mindset today. Disruptions in my personal life bled into trading. Spent most of the day collecting stats and backtesting.
es 5m
CPI report day. "Bad" news != bad news, the market firmly held a bullish bias.
Did not have the right trading mindset today. Disruptions in my personal life bled into trading. Spent most of the day collecting stats and backtesting.
es 5m
12/13 WED
FOMC day. Though there was a somewhat predictable iow tradable TR prior to the statement and presser, price movement paled in comparison to what came after. I did freeze after 2pm ET (B55)--the original plan was to avoid trading FOMC, and I did stick with it. I think a conflict that made it tough was-- this spike was one of the most textbook spikes I have seen in my limited experience and study, my decision diagram says the easiest thing to do given the circumstances was to buy the close/at market; yet my fomc rule says newbie sit back watch and learn (felt as if it's in a small data event context, obviously I haven't studied enough to know whether the usual PA rules are robust in those situations).
5m es
FOMC day. Though there was a somewhat predictable iow tradable TR prior to the statement and presser, price movement paled in comparison to what came after. I did freeze after 2pm ET (B55)--the original plan was to avoid trading FOMC, and I did stick with it. I think a conflict that made it tough was-- this spike was one of the most textbook spikes I have seen in my limited experience and study, my decision diagram says the easiest thing to do given the circumstances was to buy the close/at market; yet my fomc rule says newbie sit back watch and learn (felt as if it's in a small data event context, obviously I haven't studied enough to know whether the usual PA rules are robust in those situations).
5m es