You are using an out of date browser. It may not display this or other websites correctly.
You should upgrade or use an alternative browser.
You should upgrade or use an alternative browser.
A Beginner's Mind
- Thread starter Huyang
- Start date
I found out my biggest problem so far is not to exit immediately when other traders are not agreeing with me after i enter a trade. Many times i immediately knew that i longed swing high or shorted swing low after entries but i chose to wait being stopped out but not to actively managing the trades which really does not make sense. Although market may go in my way right after i exit, at least i would keep loss small and most of time market would move against me much more if not exit immediately. I need to start to watch carefully whether other traders are agreeing with me after entries and exit as soon as possible if other traders are not joining.
Week 6 Monday: My current objective is to test one setup at this time for NQ only, and observing NQ, recorded in the excel sheet having columns such as entry, stop, exit, MAE, MFE.
Summary of week 5: When I was focusing on the process and following the setups even when setup not precise or not good, trading is with less stress and smaller loss or bigger profit. Otherwise trading is stressful and exit winners early and exit losers too late. Based on the experience, i think it is time to get simple statistics for one setup in excel sheet, learned from NoDoJi's sharing.
So during the weekend, i have started to record simple statistics for one particular PB setup in a excel sheet by bar by bar. Today I recorded the setup information in the excel sheet for today's NQ in real time, mainly the setups i spotted in real time and some i missed but should have been taken.
NoDoJi wrote the following in a post (I forgot the link):
I choose a price action pattern to study, open a spreadsheet and log data surrounding every appearance of that pattern until I've compiled stats for enough trades to determine if some sort of statistical significance jumps out at me. I do everything by hand, no automated backtesting for me.
I already know in advance that I'm looking for two kinds of opportunities, so that narrows down the data I need to collect.
1) I look for patterns where the R:R is equal, but the win rate is at least 60%
2) I look for patterns where the R:R is positive enough to overcome a win rate of 50%
I eyeball things at first and do quick mental calculations. Or sometimes while trading day after day, I notice a certain thing seems to happen "a lot". I know from experience that this belief that something happens more often than not is frequently nothing more than selective memory, so I define the pattern and the context in which I imagine it's happening more often than not, and I then do the statistical analysis by looking for every appearance of the pattern over the past 4 weeks to see if there's any significance to it, or if I was merely remembering the successes and ignoring the failures. If a 4-week review shows promise, I continue to evaluate the setup until I have a sample size that satisfies me.
I probably did this the hard way, but it's done. I've been trading the same two core setups for a long time now.
Summary of week 5: When I was focusing on the process and following the setups even when setup not precise or not good, trading is with less stress and smaller loss or bigger profit. Otherwise trading is stressful and exit winners early and exit losers too late. Based on the experience, i think it is time to get simple statistics for one setup in excel sheet, learned from NoDoJi's sharing.
So during the weekend, i have started to record simple statistics for one particular PB setup in a excel sheet by bar by bar. Today I recorded the setup information in the excel sheet for today's NQ in real time, mainly the setups i spotted in real time and some i missed but should have been taken.
NoDoJi wrote the following in a post (I forgot the link):
I choose a price action pattern to study, open a spreadsheet and log data surrounding every appearance of that pattern until I've compiled stats for enough trades to determine if some sort of statistical significance jumps out at me. I do everything by hand, no automated backtesting for me.
I already know in advance that I'm looking for two kinds of opportunities, so that narrows down the data I need to collect.
1) I look for patterns where the R:R is equal, but the win rate is at least 60%
2) I look for patterns where the R:R is positive enough to overcome a win rate of 50%
I eyeball things at first and do quick mental calculations. Or sometimes while trading day after day, I notice a certain thing seems to happen "a lot". I know from experience that this belief that something happens more often than not is frequently nothing more than selective memory, so I define the pattern and the context in which I imagine it's happening more often than not, and I then do the statistical analysis by looking for every appearance of the pattern over the past 4 weeks to see if there's any significance to it, or if I was merely remembering the successes and ignoring the failures. If a 4-week review shows promise, I continue to evaluate the setup until I have a sample size that satisfies me.
I probably did this the hard way, but it's done. I've been trading the same two core setups for a long time now.
Week 12
In the journey to learn day trading, i have received many generous help. With sincere appreciation, i wish all a Merry Christmas!
I have been testing setups and reading books. Slowly i am forward testing the setups again. At this time, i am reading the book the disciplined trader. Today's trades in 5m :http://i.imgur.com/Ph35V3p.jpg and in 1m: http://i.imgur.com/MFD59HS.jpg
blue arrow: long entry
red arrow:short entry
white arrow: exit
In the journey to learn day trading, i have received many generous help. With sincere appreciation, i wish all a Merry Christmas!
I have been testing setups and reading books. Slowly i am forward testing the setups again. At this time, i am reading the book the disciplined trader. Today's trades in 5m :http://i.imgur.com/Ph35V3p.jpg and in 1m: http://i.imgur.com/MFD59HS.jpg
blue arrow: long entry
red arrow:short entry
white arrow: exit
week 15 Happy New Year to All!
Have been reading the book the disciplined trader. The first day in 2014 tried to forward test the setups. Lesson learned today: when sensing the reason for entry may not be valid anymore, should just exit without hesitation. Still fear of missing out or fear of loss is limiting my actions or scope of my perceptions, the prefect reflection of my development as a beginner in trading.
trades in 1m : http://i.imgur.com/nwIvzpQ.jpg
trades in 5m:
Have been reading the book the disciplined trader. The first day in 2014 tried to forward test the setups. Lesson learned today: when sensing the reason for entry may not be valid anymore, should just exit without hesitation. Still fear of missing out or fear of loss is limiting my actions or scope of my perceptions, the prefect reflection of my development as a beginner in trading.
trades in 1m : http://i.imgur.com/nwIvzpQ.jpg
trades in 5m:
Attachments
Week 15 Still the same lesson: when the reason for entry not valid anymore, should exit without hesitation.
Trades in 1m http://i.imgur.com/z2zq7Gf.jpg
Trades in 5m:
Trades in 1m http://i.imgur.com/z2zq7Gf.jpg
Trades in 5m:
Attachments
Week 15 Wednesday
Note: the last short exited at 52.5 but not 52 as shown in the chart.
trades in 1m: http://i.imgur.com/I65gZMC.jpg
trades in 5m:
Note: the last short exited at 52.5 but not 52 as shown in the chart.
trades in 1m: http://i.imgur.com/I65gZMC.jpg
trades in 5m:
Attachments
Week 15 Thursday: Yesterday, a profitable easy trade at open, then 2 losing trades and 3rd trade with a big heat. For me, more does not mean better: today just one trade.
Trade in 1m: http://i.imgur.com/uCZLhAj.jpg
Trade in 5m:
Trade in 1m: http://i.imgur.com/uCZLhAj.jpg
Trade in 5m: