A 70k bet that I can't make a 50% gain in 2009

Quote from DT3:

JScott,

I'm not talking about adjusting the stop based on the ATR, rather just passing on the trade if the stop is smaller then the ATR. What you said about the best trades working from the start is very true though.

Puddles- ATR stands for Average True Range. Basically it measures how volatile a security is over a certain time period. In case of RIMM the 5 min ATR was 29 cents, which means that given any 5 minute period RIMM can move up or down by 29 cents
More...

Understood. I only meant to suggest that a target that is 2x ATR is harder to hit than one that is say 1.4x ATR.

Of course, then you need to decide how far back you go to calc the ATR (since open, 14 bars, 1 bar, etc). For example, the ATR for RIMM was .19 if you use a 14 bar average (volatility was declining).

I'm sure there's an optimal answer . . . just don't know what the right answer is and still keep it all very simple. Good post though.

Thanks.

JS
 
<img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20100604/spy.png">

<img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20100604/cost.png">

<img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20100604/rimm.png">

<img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20100604/urbn.png">

<img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20100604/omc.png">

10:19

SHORT COST 56.76
STOP 56.87
TGT 56.54

- SPY gaps down and heads up, COST heads down
- short under lower high
- out -0.11

11:10

SHORT RIMM 61.01
STOP 61.18
TGT 60.67
- tailed geezy on this one, got no fill on EL short at the same time (he nailed that one.. scanner!)
- out +0.34

11:29

SHORT RIMM 60.63
STOP 60.75
TGT 60.39

- tried to parlay that rimm weakness into another winner with a tighter target
- out -0.12
- should have re-loaded on any of the next .. NINE lower highs as they were all winners..

14:06

SHORT URBN 37.02
STOP 37.12
TGT 36.82

- from 1-2pm SPY is on a slow drift down with a few bounces
- just after 2pm SPY puts in 2 pretty big green bars (relative to the time of day)
- URBN barely comes back, short under the lower high
- came within 1c of my stop, out b/e

15:06

SHORT OMC 36.08
STOP 36.15
TGT 35.94

- from 2-3pm SPY had alternating green/red bars in a slow drift down (on a friday afternoon, imagine that!)
- OMC just red bars
- Super tight lower high, short under it. Stop to .15 rather than above the high of the prior bar as that would have been too tight
- After what seemed like an endless amount of chop, out +0.14

8-7-1 for the week. right on plan.

http://puddles.humanfund.ca/wp/2010/06/04/2010-06-04-trades/
 
<img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20100607/spy.png">

<img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20100607/mhs.png">

<img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20100607/fcx.png">

10:19

LONG MHS 59.38
STOP 59.20
TGT 59.74

- MHS opens a lot strong than SPY
- This was off a 2 minute chart but I didn't post it (sorry, lazy today)
- Long over a 2 minute higher low
- out -0.22

10:51

SHORT FCX 61.24
STOP 61.51
TGT 60.70

- FCX weak relative to SPY since the open.
- As SPY retraces to positive terroritory FCX never turns green
- Look for a nice lower high to short under
- out +0.53

http://puddles.humanfund.ca/wp/2010/06/07/2010-06-07-trades/
 
10:19

LONG MHS 59.38
STOP 59.20
TGT 59.74

- MHS opens a lot strong than SPY
- This was off a 2 minute chart but I didn't post it (sorry, lazy today)
- Long over a 2 minute higher low
- out -0.22

I go long MHS at 59.17 on the higher low 5 min chart that hotpuddles posted and move my stop to break even when I am up +.40 (gets to 59.57)..stopped out b/e.
Shorted FCX later in the day as well.....nice chart!
Nice trading puddles....
 
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