A 70k bet that I can't make a 50% gain in 2009

<img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20100520/spy.png">

<img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20100520/pwr.png">

<img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20100520/dal.png">

10:37

SHORT PWR 20.79
STOP 20.91
TGT 20.57

- Super weak day, basically everything gaps down. Try to only look for shorts
- SPY tries to retrace with two nice big green bars from 10:25 on
- PWR heads lower on the 10:30 bar
- Short below that bar at 20.79

10:49

SHORT DAL 12.99
STOP 13.04
TGT 12.89

- Same story as PWR, as SPY tries to retrace DAL heads lower.
- A few bars test 13.00 but don't break through..
- With great relative weakness and 13.00 being a support level (round number) we try to short the break
- DAL quickly runs to 1c of our target where we move our stops to b/e
- That was as close as we got until 2 hours later when DAL makes a new LOD right at our target
- fu dal

1-0-1 today

I didn't make this post before the game and now the flyers are down 2-0, this is clearly a sign.

http://puddles.humanfund.ca/wp/2010/05/20/2010-05-20-trades/
 
Quote from HeartAttack:

Puddles,
Sorry if this was already asked, but do you trade off signals you get from a scanner or are you fully discretionary. Thanks
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No signals in a technical sense, just pattern recognition.. lower highs, higher lowers, relative weakness..
 
Geez or puddels,

I'm half way through the journal but had a question regarding how you scan for stocks to trade. I apologize if this was asked before but you said that you look for stocks that are extended, does that mean stocks that are up or down a certain % in the past x trading days, or are you referring to stocks that have had a gap of x% during the trading day.

Thanks for sharing, I'm finding the journal very informative and look forward to finishing it. Also great job puddels in keeping things going, continued success to you both.
 
Quote from DT3:

Geez or puddels,

I'm half way through the journal but had a question regarding how you scan for stocks to trade. I apologize if this was asked before but you said that you look for stocks that are extended, does that mean stocks that are up or down a certain % in the past x trading days, or are you referring to stocks that have had a gap of x% during the trading day.

Thanks for sharing, I'm finding the journal very informative and look forward to finishing it. Also great job puddels in keeping things going, continued success to you both.
More...

Basically something that's been moving strong up or down over the past few days..

Take a look at VRX daily chart up to May 3rd. I'm looking for it to push into new levels (52w high or low) multiple days in a row and closing on the highs (or lows)
 
Up to date on the thread, some great stuff here.

A couple of questions

1. You said you scan the charts and look for stocks making new highs or lows to take trades in the same direction , but if I'm not mistaken one of the set ups geez mentions is shorting a stock that has had a decent run up after it gaps up and comes down a bit. How do you make the distinction between the two, why are we looking to short it if it has continued to move in the same direction, isn't this a low probability trade?

2. How do you define buy/sell signals on daily charts, is it just stocks that are making hh/hl and ll/lh? If a stock is basing on the daily chart, and the market continues to move higher/lower are you more inclined to look for trades in the same direction or opposite direction of the market in that stock?
 
Quote from DT3:

Up to date on the thread, some great stuff here.

A couple of questions

1. You said you scan the charts and look for stocks making new highs or lows to take trades in the same direction , but if I'm not mistaken one of the set ups geez mentions is shorting a stock that has had a decent run up after it gaps up and comes down a bit. How do you make the distinction between the two, why are we looking to short it if it has continued to move in the same direction, isn't this a low probability trade?

2. How do you define buy/sell signals on daily charts, is it just stocks that are making hh/hl and ll/lh? If a stock is basing on the daily chart, and the market continues to move higher/lower are you more inclined to look for trades in the same direction or opposite direction of the market in that stock?
More...

1. This is only for stocks that are extended on the daily chart. A stock can only run in the same direction at a high velocity for so long.

2. The daily chart, intra-day chart and relative strength are all taken into account and should correlate. Looks long daily, looks strong intra day and looks stronger relative to SPY and vice versa.
 
Quote from geez:

Sigh, my 15 minutes of fame are over..its all Puddles this, Puddles that,
Puddles, Puddles, Puddles now!!!

(Nice trading dude, glad to see when everyone was trying to find longs today you were eyeing the overall weakness)
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How about a day of live calls by the master.... puddles...eerrrr I mean geez :D . One day of live calls for old time sake? Thanks Jim
 
Quote from jim c:

How about a day of live calls by the master.... puddles...eerrrr I mean geez :D . One day of live calls for old time sake? Thanks Jim
More...

Actually...I do, right Puddles?
 
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