A 70k bet that I can't make a 50% gain in 2009
- Thread starter geez
- Start date
SU,
To be honest, I rarely know when news is even coming out. The only reason I went long on banks was the multi day move down and then a gap down right into support area. I don't watch the news...the only thing I really like to know is FED day (best day to leave early and play golf).-G
I'll take a crack at trying to summarize the 4 trading patterns and today's setups. Mr. Geez trades 4 chart patterns:
Four Trading Patterns:
(1) Market weak, stock has good relative strength, buy the dip: If the stock moves lower buy over the first green 5 minute bar it makes (1st reversal). If the stock is basing, or pulling back just a little, buy it as soon as the market starts to reverse to the upside (usually 20-30 min after the open).
(2) Market strong, stock has weak relative strength, buy the dip: On a multi-day move down and then a big gap down on the daily chart, wait for the first higher low to buy.
(3) Market and stock extended, short the gap: Because of the indexes being extended and the gap up I look to get into shorts aggressively. Anytime I see a gap up after a multiday run up I am looking to get short. I'm looking to short any rally on the 5 minute chart as long as that rally doesn't go past (higher) than any prior pivot highs (showing strength again). When a stock is extended and the day before had huge buying after a multi-day rally and closed at the highs. I really like this for a day trade the next day. I expect people who have been long in this stock to take profits after that kind of move so the next day I look be aggressive in shorting it.
(4) Market strong, stock weak, short the prior pivot low: Watch a stock with relative weakness when the market has gapped up and moved higher. As soon as the market starts to make a reversal, or the weak stock breaks a prior pivot low, short the stock. I look for stocks that are getting extended in either direction and use either a 1 or 2 minute high (if going long) or low (if going short) as an entry.
Trade #1, Pattern #4:
Short 2000 FITB 6.89, 6.99 stop, 6.69 target
Trade #2, Pattern #1:
Long 400 AAPL 128.88, 128.38 stop, 129.88 target
Trade #3, Pattern #1:
Long 2000 FAS 9.33, 9.23 stop, 9.53 target
Trade #4, Pattern #2
Long 200 FSLR 178.88, 177.88 stop, 180.88 target
Trade #5, Pattern #3
Short 1400 DIA 84.74, 84.89 stop, 84.44 target
Thanks for your thread Mr. Geez, you have been a great inspiration for many, looks like you are on track to hit this years goal!
Four Trading Patterns:
(1) Market weak, stock has good relative strength, buy the dip: If the stock moves lower buy over the first green 5 minute bar it makes (1st reversal). If the stock is basing, or pulling back just a little, buy it as soon as the market starts to reverse to the upside (usually 20-30 min after the open).
(2) Market strong, stock has weak relative strength, buy the dip: On a multi-day move down and then a big gap down on the daily chart, wait for the first higher low to buy.
(3) Market and stock extended, short the gap: Because of the indexes being extended and the gap up I look to get into shorts aggressively. Anytime I see a gap up after a multiday run up I am looking to get short. I'm looking to short any rally on the 5 minute chart as long as that rally doesn't go past (higher) than any prior pivot highs (showing strength again). When a stock is extended and the day before had huge buying after a multi-day rally and closed at the highs. I really like this for a day trade the next day. I expect people who have been long in this stock to take profits after that kind of move so the next day I look be aggressive in shorting it.
(4) Market strong, stock weak, short the prior pivot low: Watch a stock with relative weakness when the market has gapped up and moved higher. As soon as the market starts to make a reversal, or the weak stock breaks a prior pivot low, short the stock. I look for stocks that are getting extended in either direction and use either a 1 or 2 minute high (if going long) or low (if going short) as an entry.
Trade #1, Pattern #4:
Short 2000 FITB 6.89, 6.99 stop, 6.69 target
Trade #2, Pattern #1:
Long 400 AAPL 128.88, 128.38 stop, 129.88 target
Trade #3, Pattern #1:
Long 2000 FAS 9.33, 9.23 stop, 9.53 target
Trade #4, Pattern #2
Long 200 FSLR 178.88, 177.88 stop, 180.88 target
Trade #5, Pattern #3
Short 1400 DIA 84.74, 84.89 stop, 84.44 target
Thanks for your thread Mr. Geez, you have been a great inspiration for many, looks like you are on track to hit this years goal!
Mr. Geez's trading plan:
I scan about 200 stocks each night looking for daily setups to trade the next day looking for extended stocks (in both directions) and stocks that look to be setting up buy or short patterns on the daily chart to play them intraday. I then scan the gap list in the morning to find early plays. I always have a few charts that I will keep up all the time (RIMM AAPL SKF SRS ) along with the indexes. Not for a swing trade but to enter for an intraday trade. I keep 4 lists of 25 stocks on my charts that I have up as I am trading during the day. I also keep 1 list for my top plays for the day. I always have a few charts that I will keep up all the time (RIMM AAPL SKF SRS ) along with the indexes. My main list consist of the indexes, the short ETF's, 3 semiconductor stocks (XLNX KLAC LLTC) 3 biotech stocks (AMGN BIIB CEPH) and other favorite stocks (QCOM AAPL RIMM AMZN). I always have a few charts that I will keep up all the time (RIMM AAPL SKF SRS ) along with the indexes.
Plan the trade, trade the plan. A perfect setup does not always work or go to target, but as long as you keep taking your perfect set ups over and over, then the overall win/loss percent should be in your favor. My trading plan says I can trade at a 50% win/loss ratio and do quite well. Losing is not a bad thing, every trader loses. But the good ones make more on the wins than the losses. That's the key! Accept the loss and move on, as long as it fits in your trading plan. I risk $200 per trade with a risk/reward of at least 1 to 1.8. Meaning winning trade should return $346 ($360-$14 for commission) and each loss should equal $214 ($200 + 14 commission). When I enter a trade, I exit at the stop or target.
I look for the trend on a daily chart and then turn to the intraday chart to find entries to trade. My criteria to enter is waiting for pullbacks, but not a break of a prior low. Depending on the dollar amount of the target, once the stock get close to my target, I move my stop to breakeven. I will never enter a trade without a preset stop and target. The stop is always a hard stop, no questions asked. If I get stopped I can always get back in on a new setup. I look to lose on 50% of my trades and I never trade with the profit and loss window showing.
Look for stocks that have relative strength or relative weakness to the opening move of the market. I enter my trades using limit orders. I exit on most trades with a market order. I enter my trades with a limit set about $.02-.04 over my desired price if going long depending on high much volume or how low of a stock price. As soon as I enter a trade I put a hard stop in at my stop price and an alert about $.10 away from my target. I never lift the hard stop. I always leave that in place until I am within $.10 of target, then I cancel the stop and try to "walk" my target down.
I scan about 200 stocks each night looking for daily setups to trade the next day looking for extended stocks (in both directions) and stocks that look to be setting up buy or short patterns on the daily chart to play them intraday. I then scan the gap list in the morning to find early plays. I always have a few charts that I will keep up all the time (RIMM AAPL SKF SRS ) along with the indexes. Not for a swing trade but to enter for an intraday trade. I keep 4 lists of 25 stocks on my charts that I have up as I am trading during the day. I also keep 1 list for my top plays for the day. I always have a few charts that I will keep up all the time (RIMM AAPL SKF SRS ) along with the indexes. My main list consist of the indexes, the short ETF's, 3 semiconductor stocks (XLNX KLAC LLTC) 3 biotech stocks (AMGN BIIB CEPH) and other favorite stocks (QCOM AAPL RIMM AMZN). I always have a few charts that I will keep up all the time (RIMM AAPL SKF SRS ) along with the indexes.
Plan the trade, trade the plan. A perfect setup does not always work or go to target, but as long as you keep taking your perfect set ups over and over, then the overall win/loss percent should be in your favor. My trading plan says I can trade at a 50% win/loss ratio and do quite well. Losing is not a bad thing, every trader loses. But the good ones make more on the wins than the losses. That's the key! Accept the loss and move on, as long as it fits in your trading plan. I risk $200 per trade with a risk/reward of at least 1 to 1.8. Meaning winning trade should return $346 ($360-$14 for commission) and each loss should equal $214 ($200 + 14 commission). When I enter a trade, I exit at the stop or target.
I look for the trend on a daily chart and then turn to the intraday chart to find entries to trade. My criteria to enter is waiting for pullbacks, but not a break of a prior low. Depending on the dollar amount of the target, once the stock get close to my target, I move my stop to breakeven. I will never enter a trade without a preset stop and target. The stop is always a hard stop, no questions asked. If I get stopped I can always get back in on a new setup. I look to lose on 50% of my trades and I never trade with the profit and loss window showing.
Look for stocks that have relative strength or relative weakness to the opening move of the market. I enter my trades using limit orders. I exit on most trades with a market order. I enter my trades with a limit set about $.02-.04 over my desired price if going long depending on high much volume or how low of a stock price. As soon as I enter a trade I put a hard stop in at my stop price and an alert about $.10 away from my target. I never lift the hard stop. I always leave that in place until I am within $.10 of target, then I cancel the stop and try to "walk" my target down.
Quote from TraderSU:
Who is this new guy with only 2 posts so far? Anyway - great jobLike your style ;-)
I want to know how he got the overhead picture of me at my desk! I thought I was the only one in here that had that ability.
I guess the secret is out too..... Geez can Rock the suspenders!!!
5/27/09:
THURS WATCHLIST:
Shorts: STX NTAP TEVA CTXS EBAY
Longs: CEPH
Days like today are very difficult for me. the indexes are strong, but the only patterns I like from scanning are short. I try not to overtrade and fight the market on days like today. I may try an early short on one of the extended stocks, then possibly wait for a lower high to short one later. For the most part I will follow the indexes, major ETF's and high volume stocks (aapl, rimm etc) for intraday trades.
Good trading all!
THURS WATCHLIST:
Shorts: STX NTAP TEVA CTXS EBAY
Longs: CEPH
Days like today are very difficult for me. the indexes are strong, but the only patterns I like from scanning are short. I try not to overtrade and fight the market on days like today. I may try an early short on one of the extended stocks, then possibly wait for a lower high to short one later. For the most part I will follow the indexes, major ETF's and high volume stocks (aapl, rimm etc) for intraday trades.
Good trading all!
