A 70k bet that I can't make a 50% gain in 2009

Quote from DblArrow:

I'm sure you mean well, but this statement always bothers me. The last sentence there is key. Losses are a part of the business; and a few losing trades or days does not mean the system was working until now. It simply means that this part of the 50% has dominated.

Many new folks take this to mean it is time to tweak the system or something worse dump it and on to the next version of the grail. The grail is in KNOWING what to expect form your system and trading it accordingly (accordingly here being take the setup regardless of how many losses you have had). Which I believe is what geez has shown us here.

Of course there is the possibility that the fundamentals of a system can change but we do not see that after a days string of losses and I do not believe that this type of system (technical, based on price movement) changes that much.
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I disagree with you....Geez's system has already shown its 50/50 win/loss ratio.It continues to make money due to the superb trade management of reward:risk=2:1.I can't see how the "fundmentals" of such a system can change...

What the newbies cannot understand is that a 50/50 system can,and will produce a series of winning or losing trades.That is called the "drawdown" of a a system and it has to be considered.

Geez's system will continue to work very well,with only one condition: that he will continue having the discipline to follow it religiously.That is,if Geez could hire a robot to execute his system,the system would continue producing profits.The amount of profits could vary,according to the markets condition,but in the long run the system is profitable.There is no doubt about it....
 
Quote from AA48:

I disagree with you....
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Not quite sure with what you disagree, but I believe what you said is in essence what I said.

My main thought to your previous statement had to do with "til now" which implies that something has changed, when in fact it had not.
 
My "till now" phrase,had to do with the ability of Geez to continue trading according to his plan.Understand?

Remember what the great Richard Dennis has said? "I could publish my rules in the newspaper and nobody would follow them".....He said that primarily because the Turtle's system,a superb trading system,needed a lot of discipline and patience to follow....
 
Geez,
congratulations on the trde in FAS....Back to profits!!!

But,I am completely confused now....On the daily chart,FAS was more a candidate for short than for long....Where is my mistake?
 
Quote from AA48:

Geez,
congratulations on the trde in FAS....Back to profits!!!

But,I am completely confused now....On the daily chart,FAS was more a candidate for short than for long....Where is my mistake?
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AA48..I just saw the intraday action on FAS and SKF (perfect lower high on SKF 5 min).
I posted this a.m. that daily charts not showing me much and would look to indexes for scalp trades..this one fit the bill.
 
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