A 70k bet that I can't make a 50% gain in 2009

Quote from sudhaker:

Good one :-)

<img src="http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2419080" />

Does any one trade with Geez's published trade which is posted almost real-time?

I seriously got tempted couple of times on a slightly better entry.

Ok...maybe this is a problem with Big Charts during the day.
My chart of UNH has two 5 min. bars up ( the 10:35 and 10:40 bars)....A break of the 10:40 bar creates a lower high(29.20) and the pivot high is 29.32. Does everyone else have this on the 5 min chart of UNH?
I just checked bigcharts and it now has the 10:35 and 10:40 bars as green...and it is much easier to see the lower high which I shorted...hope this helps-G

Once again, the reason I took this short was based on the daily chart being extended to the upside, the almost vertical run up on the 5 min chart from the open (very similar to WLP), then waiting for the lower high to confirm some weakness to short.
 
First of all,I want to thank Geez for taking the time and effort to answer to all of our questions and comments.Geez is a "real" guy,he obviously trades seriously...He is not the "paper trading" guy and he doesn't try to sell anything...

From my own educational background in trading,I can understand that Geez has studied a lot and,most of all,he was able to split the garbage (95% at least...) from the useful things.If anybody ever tries to sell you a book or a seminar that does not include money management,run away as fast as you can...The guy is not a trader,he is a salesman......

Second,it's useless to try to follow Geezs' trades with charts from sites like Bigcharts.You Americans need a real time provider with good charts such as E-signal or similar.I pay for such a platform in Greece.If you want to be professional traders,you need professional tools.

Third and last,I'll repeat that the potential of this strategy is unlimited.If Geez tries to exploit the full potential of his now bigger account,the results will be miraculous....The entry setup is very simple,although it's expressed in several ways.Geez buys strength and sells weakness.And then,the money management takes control.

Geez,I believe that your system should work equally well in any market and in any time frame.Maybe if you try to work in a 10min,or 15min. chart you'll have less trades per day,but the system should work fine.

In any case,you are doing a great job here and personally I am grateful to you.I was backtesting my system,which as I've already told you is similar to yours,and the results were poor...The reason? I was working with a 1:1 ratio and I was moving my stop after that ratio was achieved (partial exits).The results? 55-60% w/l ratio and an overall loss!!! The reason? with that money management,I've had a ratio of Average win/Average loss of 0.80.....Reading this thread,I realized that this was ridiculus! So,I ran the same backtests following your trade management rules and the results climbed to 1.90!!! The net result? the same w/l ratio (about 57%) and a brilliant 30% net profit in less than a year....

Thanks Geez...have a nice weekend.
 
Quote from geez:

An MBA student would want to analize each and every trade.....and would NEVER want to be wrong. They are "way too smart" to be wrong. This is one of the biggest hangups for alot of traders, I believe....the fear of being wrong.
Most people who get into trading came from a prior profession that they excelled at (doctors, lawyers, bankers). Now you tell that person they have to except losses and they are not used to that. Lawyers hate to lose...doctors hate to lose...bankers hate to lose...they all want to be right all the time. As a trader you have to train yourself absorb the loss as part of the plan.

Most people would rather die than look foolish. There are so many threads on ET about why 98% of traders fail. Geez, you nailed it. Trading is a sloppy profession where admitting very quickly when you are "wrong" actually makes everything right.

On a more important note, what's up with the blonde commentary??? I am waaay more blonde now than before I left for the cayes. What of it? :cool:
 
Quote from geez:

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Ha!!....visiting an SLF....jumped on the computer to post FITB short.

SLF= Special Lady Friend.
C'mon guys..it's friday night!!!
Have a great weekend...-G
 
Ah, the previously posted chart was WLP but it was 1 min candles. Here is the correct one. Sorry about that.

<img src="http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2419959" />

Quote from geez:

Ok, this was a question about WLP short:
9:56 1000 WLP SHORT 49.10
STOP 49.30
TGT 48.70

* The chart above is not the WLP chart.
But I will give an explanation of what I was looking at and you can pull up the chart on your own (5 min chart).
First, look at the daily chart of WLP. Going into today it is extended up on four straight days of buying. Then it gaps up this morning and makes an extended run up on the 5 min chart.
Also, the indexes are doing the same thing. They gapped up and ran up on the 5 min chart. This is a clear to sign to me to put this on short watch.
This will be the most aggressive entry style you will see from me.
I watch the run up on the 5 min chart (the key being the indexes doing the same) and as soon as I see a red bar I short the very next bar if it breaks the low of the red bar.
The 9:50 bar on WLP is red, the low being 48.96. As soon as the 9:55 bar breaks BELOW 48.96 I look to short, looking for the reversal move because of the these major factors:
* extended daily
*gap up and run up on 5 min chart
*indexes doing the same thing
As soon as I get the entry bar up to hit it, it's at 49.01/49.11(I was watching UNH, PRU and COF at the same time for shorts). I was looking for an entry of 48.95, but after a long while of sitting there, a much better fill (plus a clear sign this is a spready stock)
I put my stop over the pivot high(also the HOD) of 49.29.
My target of 48.70 looks attainable...it's right above the 9:40 bars high, so the trade looks good, per my trading plan.
As the indexes turn and selloff WLP gets to 48.80 then reverses to the upside. Even as the indexes move lower and take out the lows of the day, WLP moves up. Add to this the spreadiness it has on the bid/ask and that's enough for me to move my stop to b/e (it got within .10 of tgt). As my last shares were covered this thing jumped up another .12...just to prove to me how spready it could be.
.......................................................................................................

As to the question about anyone taking my trades:
Feel free to join along, that's fine with me. But ,be very careful about these type of stocks. Try to have an understanding of how the spread can be very dangerous. Don't just jump in blind. Most plays I take are on very high volume stocks (or ETF's), and this is on purpose. I don't like spready stocks. I don't mind .01-.03 slippage on an exit....but some of these stocks (like WLP) you have to really watch.
Hope that helps explain WLP...any questions please ask...
Remember, there are no stupid questions...only stupid blondes.
Have a great weekend!-G
 

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Quote from Jegnyr:

4:3 Mr geez.

Yes, I am watching.


Keep it pens

Jeg.....no SLF????
Have a great weekend!
(go pens...lol)
Yes ....I'm coming SLF..hold on!!!!!
ugh
 
Quote from geez:

Ha!!....visiting an SLF....jumped on the computer to post FITB short.

SLF= Special Lady Friend.
C'mon guys..it's friday night!!!
Have a great weekend...-G

My SLF has a computer and a TV, and she can talk to me when the game is over......................
 
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