A 70k bet that I can't make a 50% gain in 2009

Quote from AA48:

You sold the low of the "lower high" bar,with a stop just above the bar's high....Good luck...

I am confused though...the stock is rallying from the opening bell.So,if I understand your logic ,you should buy a higher low.Where is my fault?
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AA48,
Take a look on the daily chart of PSSI.
This is getting very extended today, but instead of trying to pick a top (common rookie mistake), I wait for the 1st SELL signal I see.
You are right regarding the lower high and the stop above that. Add into this the fact that the markets were weak and this trade fits right into my trading plan.
Hope this helps-G

Remember, it's the daily chart that is the key on this one.
 
05-08-09 03:20 AM



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Quote from AA48:

Geez,

let me see if I understand your last long play on DXD.The overall market is down today and DXD has gapped down but immidiately it starts to rally,according to the 5 min. chart.

Then,it makes a 1 bar retracement and creates a higher low swing point.The low of that bar is your technical stop,if I understand correctly.Then,I am a little confused about your entry point,because the scale of the chart doesn't help me.Do you wait for the "higher low" bar to complete and then you buy the violation of its high,or you buy the violation of next's bar high when it is also completed?

You are doing great....congratulations
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You nailed it....exactly.

One thing you may not know AA48 is that BUYING DXD is actually SHORTING the market.
DXD is the 2x ETF short fund for the DJIA.
SDS is the short fund for the S&P 500
QID is the short fund for the Nasdaq.
I know you trade the Greek market, so I just wanted to clarify that for you (in case you didn't know). So on the DXD and SDS long plays I took, they were actually shorts of the indexes...playing the trend today.
 
.Do you wait for the "higher low" bar to complete and then you buy the violation of its high,or you buy the violation of next's bar high when it is also completed?
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Quote from geez:

You nailed it....exactly.
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Wait, which one? :)
 
Quote from AA48:

Even if you flip a coin,your success rate will be 50%. Keeping your losses very small and have a reward/risk ratio of 2 or better is what makes this strategy a "money machine".
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It is true that the probability is 50% but guess that assumption is valid for 1:1 reward/risk ratio only. It is entirely different game when ratio is increased to 2:1 ;-)

Any trading system has following two major components; entry & exit.

* Geez's entry - time, price, stop limit
* Geez's exit - flawless execution with no emotion involved

Exit strategy is overly simple and possibly very suitable for manual execution. But this is not the real meat and this alone won't make a successful trader.

In my opinion, the real strength of Geez's system is the superior entry. And I want to learn it all ;-)

- Su
 
Quote from geez:

hey sudhaker......
Have I mentioned today that YOU ROCK!!!
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That is your generosity :-) I'm just trying to learn your system. It would be great if you can occasionally post some comment about your entry decisions.

Thanks,
 
Quote from sudhaker:

That is your generosity :-) I'm just trying to learn your system. It would be great if you can occasionally post some comment about your entry decisions.

Thanks,
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Of course sudhaker,
Just give me alittle more detail what you are looking for. Do youy mean why I pick a certain price? Or why I am actually picking the certain stock? Or why long or short?.......Just let me know.
 
Hello geez,

let me ask you something on the money management issue.You've had an initial capital of 70k and you want to achieve a 50% profit,that is 35k with a minimum drawdown.You also bet 200$ on each trade,with a profit target of 400.Excellent...

Do you believe that it would be possible to achieve the same results with less capital? I mean,following the same strategy,if you've had 10k could you produce 5k profit? what would your bet on each trade be then?

Thank you...I'll watch your trades closely today.Good luck!
 
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