Quote from sudhaker:
It is interesting to find that Geez made a bet against the primary trend. Lets discuss the setup here
<img src="http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2416347" />
Thanks, [/QUOTE
OK, this is the PFG chart.....open for discussion!
Here is what I see:
1. Take a look at the daily chart. this is day #3 of a strong rally and today is a Huge green bar (getting extended)
2. Look at the 5 min chart. PFG has an almost nonstop rally until 3:00. The 3:005 min bar is the 1st 5 min. bar of some selling. It almost takes out the last 3 bars of buying (1st sign to start looking for a lower high).
3. Continue to watch the 5 min chart to see if we can get a confirmation of a lower high. The next 2 bars have a small amount of buying, so I look to short UNDER the 3:10 low (23.58) and a stop over the high (23.58).
4. The next bar breaks below 23.58, I get in short and look for my 2 to 1 ratio...I see the support line at 22.90ish so 22.97 looks like a very attainable target.
5. 3 bars later and we are at target.
A 70k bet that I can't make a 50% gain in 2009
- Thread starter geez
- Start date
OK..one other thing about this:
If you are a newbie, this is a great test to do everyday. You should be able to spot the trade you took on a chart within seconds...this setup looks textbook to me, a piece of cake to see.
This is what you should be able to do on ALL of your trades.
Does this mean they will all work? Of course not, but I feel so much better when I can pinpoint my exact entry and WHY I took the trade after the trading day (when emotion is no longer involved).
If you are a newbie, this is a great test to do everyday. You should be able to spot the trade you took on a chart within seconds...this setup looks textbook to me, a piece of cake to see.
This is what you should be able to do on ALL of your trades.
Does this mean they will all work? Of course not, but I feel so much better when I can pinpoint my exact entry and WHY I took the trade after the trading day (when emotion is no longer involved).
Quote from geez:
Quote from sudhaker:
It is interesting to find that Geez made a bet against the primary trend. Lets discuss the setup here
<img src="http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2416347" />
Thanks, [/QUOTE
OK, this is the PFG chart.....open for discussion!
Here is what I see:
1. Take a look at the daily chart. this is day #3 of a strong rally and today is a Huge green bar (getting extended)
2. Look at the 5 min chart. PFG has an almost nonstop rally until 3:00. The 3:005 min bar is the 1st 5 min. bar of some selling. It almost takes out the last 3 bars of buying (1st sign to start looking for a lower high).
3. Continue to watch the 5 min chart to see if we can get a confirmation of a lower high. The next 2 bars have a small amount of buying, so I look to short UNDER the 3:10 low (23.58) and a stop over the high (23.58).
4. The next bar breaks below 23.58, I get in short and look for my 2 to 1 ratio...I see the support line at 22.90ish so 22.97 looks like a very attainable target.
5. 3 bars later and we are at target.
It nicely explains the choice of stop/target. Quick question -
Do you suggest to check 1m chart for possible extra help or it is too noisy?
OK...since I have some time, I'll give details on the other 2 trades today:
LVS SHORT 11.58
* LVS daily chart is extended, had a gap up the day before and gapped up today. I entered the day looking to get into LVS short on ANY weakness. This is one of the patternsI look for. An extended stock that gaps up, I look to short the 1 min low or the 1st reversal it makes. I enter LVS as soon as it breaks it;s 1 min low (11.60), entry at 11.58....I put my stop above the 9:32 bar. Exit for a gain.
QID BUY 35.33
* The nasdaq was the weakest of the 3 indexes and the QID was setting up a higher low on the 5 min chart. The 10:00 bar breaks above the prior bar high (35.32), which is the long entry and I put my stop under the pivot low (35.13) and put my tgt at 35.73, the prior resistance spot from yesterday being 35.70...so pretty close to tgt. Exit at tgt.
LVS SHORT 11.58
* LVS daily chart is extended, had a gap up the day before and gapped up today. I entered the day looking to get into LVS short on ANY weakness. This is one of the patternsI look for. An extended stock that gaps up, I look to short the 1 min low or the 1st reversal it makes. I enter LVS as soon as it breaks it;s 1 min low (11.60), entry at 11.58....I put my stop above the 9:32 bar. Exit for a gain.
QID BUY 35.33
* The nasdaq was the weakest of the 3 indexes and the QID was setting up a higher low on the 5 min chart. The 10:00 bar breaks above the prior bar high (35.32), which is the long entry and I put my stop under the pivot low (35.13) and put my tgt at 35.73, the prior resistance spot from yesterday being 35.70...so pretty close to tgt. Exit at tgt.
5/7/09:
Thurs a.m.
It's too early to look at gap lists, but here are the daily charts I like:
SHORT: AMZN ISRG LINTA LOGI RIMM INTU BIDU
LONG: STX NVDA CMCSA
Not really sure how the indexes will play out. They are getting alittle extended so it will be very hard for me to go long, but the markets look to be holding pretty well.
I will continue to look for Rel. Weak and Rel. Strong stocks to play due to the markets (read: I'm still clueless)
Good Trading all!
Thurs a.m.
It's too early to look at gap lists, but here are the daily charts I like:
SHORT: AMZN ISRG LINTA LOGI RIMM INTU BIDU
LONG: STX NVDA CMCSA
Not really sure how the indexes will play out. They are getting alittle extended so it will be very hard for me to go long, but the markets look to be holding pretty well.
I will continue to look for Rel. Weak and Rel. Strong stocks to play due to the markets (read: I'm still clueless)
Good Trading all!