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A 70k bet that I can't make a 50% gain in 2009
- Thread starter geez
- Start date
Quote from ShinL:
geez,
how much time do you spend screening the market while you are working full time at work(i presume it's a government job?). do you do this during your down time? i'm a newbie, so just trying to make sense of this. i am enjoying the bet unfolding/progressing in real time.
ShinL,
It's hard to give you an actual amount of time, but I'll break down a "normal" day for me:
I follow the market from 9:30-10:30 pretty closely. although with the market stuck in limbo, I don't trade much the first 30 min.
From 10:30-1:30 I check with the market every 10 min. or so, if I see something that has a chance of setting up, then I wait to trade it, if not I just check back 10 min later.
I follow 1:30-2:30 pretty close, and if nothing looks good I don't really like entering anything new the last hour of the day.
As a side note.....
I feel I trade MUCH better by not watching the market all day. I see if there is a set up, if not, I check back later. 2-4 trades a day is my avg.
If I sit and stare all day, I will see things that never existed when you go back and look at the chart later on.
I want to be able to look at a chart and spot a high quality trade within seconds, if not....there is no trade to be done. Plain and simple.
Hope that helps answer you question.
Quote from geez:
I want to be able to look at a chart and spot a high quality trade within seconds, if not....there is no trade to be done. Plain and simple.
.
thats the idea.
weekly i will go through 000s of charts with multiple time frames... and attempt to spot the best trades. stockcharts is my tool
Quote from OTCkrak:
thats the idea.
weekly i will go through 000s of charts with multiple time frames... and attempt to spot the best trades. stockcharts is my tool
I think this is a HUGE point to make for newbies,so let me take a minute to go into it alittle deeper for whoever is following.....
This is what I do:
1. At the end of the day print the chart of the stock or index you followed the most (SPY,DIA, DXD, QID,AAPL for me) in the time frame you trade (for me 5 min charts).
2. Now scan the chart and you should find 3(maybe 4) PERFECT setups that are in your trading plan.
3. Now look at you trade history and see what trades you ACTUALLY did take.
4. If the trades you took are the ones you found on your chart scan at the end of the day, then you should be a profitable trader.
Remember: A perfect setup does not always work(or go to target),but as long as you keep taking YOUR perfect set ups over and over...then the overall % should be in your favor.
My trading plan says I can trade at a 50% win ratio and do quite well(for me).
LOSING IS NOT A BAD THING!!!
EVERY TRADER LOSES
But the good ones make more on the wins than losses...that's the key!....accept the loss and move on, as long as it fits in your trading plan.........stepping off my soap box now.
Quote from geez:
2/03/09:
One trade again today...was looking for a good long set up in the afternoon, but nothing gave me an entry.
P/L +395.07
Daily scan for tomorrow I like an early short on AMZN (would be even better if it gapped up)
SHORT WATCH: COST
COST gapping down, so will have to wait on that one to short.
Will be keeping a VERY close eye on AMZN to short EARLY.
Scottrade did not have shares to short a few weeks ago, but the branch office said there are some shares on the list (as of yesterday afternoon), so we'll see.
Quote from geez:
I think this is a HUGE point to make for newbies,so let me take a minute to go into it alittle deeper for whoever is following.....
This is what I do:
1. At the end of the day print the chart of the stock or index you followed the most (SPY,DIA, DXD, QID,AAPL for me) in the time frame you trade (for me 5 min charts).
2. Now scan the chart and you should find 3(maybe 4) PERFECT setups that are in your trading plan.
3. Now look at you trade history and see what trades you ACTUALLY did take.
4. If the trades you took are the ones you found on your chart scan at the end of the day, then you should be a profitable trader.
Remember: A perfect setup does not always work(or go to target),but as long as you keep taking YOUR perfect set ups over and over...then the overall % should be in your favor.
My trading plan says I can trade at a 50% win ratio and do quite well(for me).
LOSING IS NOT A BAD THING!!!
EVERY TRADER LOSES
But the good ones make more on the wins than losses...that's the key!....accept the loss and move on, as long as it fits in your trading plan.........stepping off my soap box now.
Love reading the posts you seem like a very enlightened trader. Can you maybe show us a chart of one of your "prefect" setups?
regardless of your odds of this bet, I am very happy to have come across a refreshing post in a long time, after stumbling over so much trash here on ET (heck, 98.5% here is trash...). You come across as being a pretty smart guy and regardless of the eventual outcome of this I look forward to this thread, and this opinion I formed after just reading your very first post. Good luck!
Quote from geez:
My buddy and I have a long history of some strange bets. One , that I can't hit a 300 yd drive after 3 months of practice, I'm 5 11" 165 lbs. (won that bet). Two, that I couldn't bench press 300 lbs after 3 months of practice (lost that bet). Three, that I wouldn't swim in a frozen lake(won that bet). Four, that I couldn't travel cross country on $50 dollars (lost that bet). So.............
THE BET: That I can't take a 70k account and make at least a 50% return on it in 2009. If I fall short I pay the 50% return. If I win, I keep the return and any additional gains, taxes paid by the bettor.
THE RULES: He gets to pick the trading platform (scottrade, wow) and I can only use 1 monitor. IF I reach the 50% gain before the end of the year, I must continue trading(at least 4 trades a week w/ a min $100 risk) until years end.
MY TRADING STYLE: Since I have to trade on scottrade I will strictly trade stocks and ETF's. I risk $200 per trade with a risk/reward of at least 1 to 1.8. Meaning winning trade should return $346 ($360-$14 for comm.), each loss =$214 w/ comm. If the daily chart suggests a swing trade I will leave a Back Half for a 3 to1 min r/r.
MY BACKGROUND: I've been trading as a 2nd income for the past 8 years and said that I could make money on any trading platform as long as it was stable, hence the bet was born!
The Bet starts the 1st opening bell of 2009 and ends the last closing bell of 2009......enjoy the ride!
P.S. As a long time reader of ET but 1st time poster, I of course welcome(and expect) all haters to join me on this thread. I will post each and every one of my trades so you can follow along and we can agree to disagree about entries, exits, and so forth.
SO...as they say in the ring: LET'S GET READY TO RUMMMBLE!!!
lol, why dont you get lost, poser!!! You sound like one of those guys who wanna manage others funds without having discipline yourself, nor any proven way to make money.
Then this "just do what you do for the next 100 days then you made it". Thanks kiddo, we can all do that math. Its unfortunatly not that simple. You may not have fully understood his earlier humorous but nonetheless true comment that translates to something similar than this: "prove yourself first then you may gain the trust of others who may eventually entrust some of their funds to you". Now hush hush, back to your paper trader ;-)
Then this "just do what you do for the next 100 days then you made it". Thanks kiddo, we can all do that math. Its unfortunatly not that simple. You may not have fully understood his earlier humorous but nonetheless true comment that translates to something similar than this: "prove yourself first then you may gain the trust of others who may eventually entrust some of their funds to you". Now hush hush, back to your paper trader ;-)
Quote from gaj:
heh...i don't do any of the crazy bets, just ones that are highly weighted in my favor. you can *definitely* do that number if you can trade prior to this.
don't think of it as 50%...just think of it as a few hundred a day (to balance the down days) and keep sticking to the stops, and it will be cake.