A 70k bet that I can't make a 50% gain in 2009

Quote from The Trojan:

Just on something flat will be hard enough. If he's got gravity on his side then he stands a chance if he can stay on. :p Going uphill could be a challenge though..
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I was thinking downhill
 
Quote from Drock409:

your better off taking one option position (say LONG SRS) and letting it rip
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That's actually not a bad idea for a secondary bet:
Each person pick one stock for 09 and see who can nail the biggest % gain.
 
So....your "normal" trading system would crush 50% so easily that you have to be handicapped somehow?

If that's the case you are wasting your time (or have other millions from your easy trading so this money doesn't matter).
 
Quote from Sideways:

So....your "normal" trading system would crush 50% so easily that you have to be handicapped somehow?

If that's the case you are wasting your time (or have other millions from your easy trading so this money doesn't matter).
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Nope, just that I gave my buddy the right to choose what platform I would use. The way the bet originally came up was that he felt you needed chat rooms, 6 monitors ,CNBC, 30 indicators, and a voo doo doll to be a day trader. I told him that I'd bet him I could make money w/ any platform that had streaming charts and use just 1 monitor...hence the bet was born!(He actually came up w/ the 50% increase of the 70k, I was happy shooting for 25%)
 
Quote from geez:

ahhh, but if i get to the 50% i keep the profits, taxes paid by the forementioned friend. So I get 35k (or more)
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Who put up the 70k?

I think it would be a good bet for you if he put up the dough. Because if it's your capital your upside would only be the tax saving and bragging right.

Of course, that's just my opinion. You took that swim-in-the-frozen-lake bet too. How long, in distance and time, you had to swim and how much was the bet?

Good thing you won that one. Did it ever cross your mind how much you could have lost?
 
Quote from montysky:

Who put up the 70k?

I think it would be a good bet for you if he put up the dough. Because if it's your capital your upside would only be the tax saving and bragging right.

Of course, that's just my opinion. You took that swim-in-the-frozen-lake bet too. How long, in distance and time, you had to swim and how much was the bet?

Good thing you won that one. Did it ever cross your mind how much you could have lost?
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The 70 k was what was owed to me from other deals we had. The water bet was I had to be fully submerged, no distance requirements. That was actually a bet we both entered at a bar one year on a lake with the other "Polar Bear" members on the lake. The fist person to fully submerge in the lake after Feb 1st got to keep the whole kitty.So my buddy and I did a side bet on that ,to see if either of us would actually do it (I did)...as Castanza would say "there was shrikage!"
 
Mon 1/05:

No daily chart pattern set-ups that I use, so today I will be looking for intraday trades only. My "universe" consists of the nasdaq 100, plus high vol. nasdaq stocks and index's (SPY DIA QQQQ , QID mostly). I will be looking for stocks that move against the market in the 1st 30 min of trading (i.e. If the market moves up I will look for weak stocks to short or if the market moves down - strong stocks to buy) I will be trading off the 5 min charts today and won't enter anything until, at least the 1st reversal in the market. Nothing on the gap llist looks appealing either so may have to wait for a direction in the market today before trading. I use a $200 max loss ($214 w/ comm) and look for 1.8-2.0 return when doing intraday trading ($360-$400 gain minus $14 comm r/t). Good trading to all today. I will post trades as they come.
 
your friend is an amateur.

if he had given that $70,000 to a professional trader that professional trader would have made him $700,000 profit in two years.




Quote from geez:

My buddy and I have a long history of some strange bets. One , that I can't hit a 300 yd drive after 3 months of practice, I'm 5 11" 165 lbs. (won that bet). Two, that I couldn't bench press 300 lbs after 3 months of practice (lost that bet). Three, that I wouldn't swim in a frozen lake(won that bet). Four, that I couldn't travel cross country on $50 dollars (lost that bet). So.............

THE BET: That I can't take a 70k account and make at least a 50% return on it in 2009. If I fall short I pay the 50% return. If I win, I keep the return and any additional gains, taxes paid by the bettor.

THE RULES: He gets to pick the trading platform (scottrade, wow) and I can only use 1 monitor. IF I reach the 50% gain before the end of the year, I must continue trading(at least 4 trades a week w/ a min $100 risk) until years end.

MY TRADING STYLE: Since I have to trade on scottrade I will strictly trade stocks and ETF's. I risk $200 per trade with a risk/reward of at least 1 to 1.8. Meaning winning trade should return $346 ($360-$14 for comm.), each loss =$214 w/ comm. If the daily chart suggests a swing trade I will leave a Back Half for a 3 to1 min r/r.

MY BACKGROUND: I've been trading as a 2nd income for the past 8 years and said that I could make money on any trading platform as long as it was stable, hence the bet was born!

The Bet starts the 1st opening bell of 2009 and ends the last closing bell of 2009......enjoy the ride!


P.S. As a long time reader of ET but 1st time poster, I of course welcome(and expect) all haters to join me on this thread. I will post each and every one of my trades so you can follow along and we can agree to disagree about entries, exits, and so forth.
SO...as they say in the ring: LET'S GET READY TO RUMMMBLE!!!
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1/05 trades:

10:03 GLD SHORT 800 shares
entry 83.95
stop 84.20
tgt 83.45
exit 83.45
p/l +385.80

10:10 AAPL LONG 350 shares
entry 93.55
stop 93.00
tgt 94.55
exit 94.64
p/l +367.30

15:08 RIMM SHORT 650 shares
entry 43.75
stop 44.05
tgt 43.15
exit 43.25
p/l +311.50

1/05 TOTAL: +1064.60
 
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