95% of traders lose

Quote from fubar:

Is this why so many traders are drawn to promises of the grail such as Woodies CCI and Jack Hershey SCT?

And would it be correct to assume that the 5% of profitable traders devise their own methods and avoid the herd.. therefore leaving 100% of losing traders in the CCI and SCT category?

What is it in the human psyche that causes us to blindly follow others that ridiculously claim to have a method that never has a losing trade.. what is the fatal flaw in our makeup that allows us to ignore common sense?

I know students of Joseph Campbell would point out the 2 examples above are quite old men and the unconscious may be identifying with the wise old man/cosmic father archetype, even though the claims remain ludicrous they have the aura of the grail because of this unconscious association
More...

Jack and Woodie are both old men that need to pander to their respective ego's

It's a bit sad to see grown men acting like children even into their twilight years
 
Hi fearless9 & spike500,

I couldn't agree with you more.



Quote from fearless9:

I think the mathmatics of good trading is very basic.

It is the 'rat cunning' and it's application to the reality that the charts present that provides the winning edge.

I cannot stress the need for reality based thinking enough.

Losers trade their perceptions and winners trade reality.

This in my mind is the difficult point of trading and it is virtually unteachable, because how do you teach someone to see reality.

This business about 'zero sum' is perception when it comes to making money in the futures market.
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Quote from Spike500


I think the mathmatics of good trading is very basic.
Agree, I graduated in the basic mathematics ( adding, substracting, dividing and multiplying).

It is the 'rat cunning' and it's application to the reality that the charts present that provides the winning edge.
That’s what I meant with creativity and original thoughts. If you are only a number cruncher you won’t get far.

I cannot stress the need for reality based thinking enough. Losers trade their perceptions and winners trade reality.
That’s where I use mathematics and statistics. Sometimes I think that 1+1 equals three, but my mathematical systems says it is only 2. Maths keep me in reality. And statistics give me an idea where I should end up in the long run and at what risk.

I too believe that the "SECRET" to trading is "CLEAR THINKING"


Best Regards

Johno
 
Hi QuantPlus

Quote from Quantplus -

Trading and poker and sports betting are Zero Sum Games...
(If one ignores transaction costs)...
While long-term investing like Warren Buffet is NOT.

** All Zero Sum Games are similar **.

They attract every math genius on the planet...
Like moths to a flame.

And since only 1-2% of people are actually on the genius level for any given SKILL...
All Zero Sum Games...
Have roughly 5% long-term winners and 95% long-term losers

-------------------------------------------------------
Reply,

Some simple business maths, if 5% are long term winners and only 1-2% are maths trading geniuses then, doesn't this leave a window of opportunity for 3-4% of business savy traders to be long term trading successes. If I've misunderstood your comment I would appreciate you clarifying the issue.

Best Regards

Johno
 
Quote from alex.samant:

Freaking math geniuses. This is fun!

YOU NEED BALLS, MAN! Math geniuses don't have balls.

Trading is HUMAN. It's not a math game. It's not about sitting there and being the genius in order to find that perfect system....

It's about doing what you like, being relaxed, not thinking about the past trade, having an eye for your setup and then being as cold as ice when execution comes in ....

Man, i had someone who was completely dumb. I mean it. This is true. He was an idiot. He was actually the driver for the firm. I just made a few simple rules for him to follow and he traded better than me for the first 2 months.

He had no idea what he was doing, but he knew he was making money. I told him i can't guarantee every trade would be a winner, but i told him the money he would make were his after 6 months (me providing the capital). The rules were all he had. After 6 months he had made some money.

So spare the math genius thing. A trader does not need to Invent his system....
More...

What a crazy post... "talent doesn't matter".

And most Pro Traders don't need "balls"...
They just grind out money day after day with near ZERO stress...
Because they have the experience and infrastructure...
To wear down most of the other players in a Zero Sum Game.

You've read too many books HYPING semi-fictional "wizard traders".
I don't believe you are a successful trader... but rather some kind of Con Artist.

Yawn 1,000,000 times.
 
2 things...

while short term trading may SEEM zero sum game, it is not

period. that's a mathematical/structural issue, and the stock market is not zero sum game

by its very structure.

futures and options are, of course.

certainly, in short term trading, much of your gains come from others losses and vice versa but that is still NOT zero sum game, unless the SUM of losses vs. gains is exactly ZERO, and more importantly HAS to be zero.

as for the 95% thang

nobody KNOWS the exact #'s but probably between 85-95% of DAY traders do lose money (most investors do quite well fwiw, but that's another issue)

but this is true in many small businesses. trading is no different.

there are no guarantees, but having a solid business plan, an edge on your competitors, discipline, solid money management, sufficient capitalization, solid record keeping, etc. makes your chances of success MUCH higher, in ALL businesses, to include trading

among the first thing i tell all trainees (in futures) is that the vast majority of retail traders that enter futures market lose money

those with the proper mindset and the above factors, though, have a much higher chance of success.
 
All 95% of them post here on ET, the rest are millionaires that laugh at us trying to find the holy grail in the game.

Good luck suckers, keep giving your money to the big money traders.
 
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