90% winrate

Quote from logic_man:

Actually, you can have it both ways. I already told you that my initial stop gets hit less than 5% of the time. Therefore, I can size my positions the same "as if" my stop were close by because I know that it's rarely going to be hit. The difference is that I don't get stopped out the 50-60% of the time that the typical "stop at the recent high/low" system gets stopped out. Those systems typically have lower win rates precisely because the stops are so close and then make their profits on the 40-50% of trades where the stop works. Sure, maybe an amateur gets stopped out 70% of the time and can't make a profit because the 30% winners he has just aren't big enough, but that style of stop-setting is known precisely for its large number of small losers interspersed with a moderate number of small winners and some major winners.

My win rate is about 65% and my wins are 1.8X my losses, so I have both high winning percentage and a high winner to loser size ratio, which are not supposed to be able to go together in a single system. It's suckers who set their stops like you do who eventually fuel the trends I ride when they need to get back in because they got stopped out and now want another try. Some of my biggest winners have blown through those recent highs or lows and then come roaring back. On the flip side, I catch plenty of "no heat" trades where I could very well have set my stop at the recent high or low.

So, maybe YOU can't have it both ways, but I can. Why? Because I understand how to set that initial stop AND when to enter so that the way I set that initial stop achieves maximum effectiveness.

My verdict of "amateur" stands.
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You are totally missing the point. I am talking about THE LEAST AMOUNT OF RISK while allowing for the MOST PROFIT POTENTIAL- that is chart based with a proper setup. Your stats are good but not optimal bottom line. Take a look at AAPL on the 5min chart right now.... low of day is 568.81.... a reversion to the mean strategy with an ultra conservative target of the 8 EMA has returned $ .75 when price revisted the zone down to $ 569... $ .19 WITHIN THE LOW OF DAY BUT REVERSED BEFORE GETTING THERE! $ .19!! Why didnt the MMs sweep all the "amateurs" with their stops just below??? The bid/ask in AAPL is often easily double or more that differential! Then what happens is AAPL AGAIN retests $ 569 but stops dead in its tracks... this time returning $ 1.16! AGAIN-- only $ .20 tick and look at all the amateurs that could be flushed out. The next candle revists $ 569.38... higher highs... hmmm... aapl showing strength (incidentally the market was hitting new lows when aapl went to $ 569... relative strength clue)... this time AAPL returns $ 1.41 and makes it to the 21 EMA...

Had you positioned sized for some significant stop loss below the low of the day YOU ARE FORCED TO REDUCE CONTRACT/SHARE SIZE WHICH AS A RESULT REDUCES PROFIT.... IN LIEU OF INCREASING CONTRACT SIZE W/O INCREASING RISK!

You are dead wrong my friend... You CANNOT have it both ways....it's mathematically IMPOSSIBLE...
 
Quote from HATEtheRisk:

Do you know how this feels?

I could kill somebody with my own hands.

Sometimes i am the worst trader in the universe, but i can be the best, if i just had a little bit of patience.

I hate this, risk is so goddamn stressful.

One day i will get a hearth attack.

:mad: :mad: :mad:
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You need serious help.
 
So is this what you do everyday? :)
Quote from HATEtheRisk:

Dear readers,

i apologize for my first 2 starting trades, they werent quite correct, i just wanted to make a quick $, so that it looks good, but that wasnt any of my 90% setup trade and this is not my standard.
I am really very sorry.

Dont judge too bad about me, this only happens if i dont trade my rules. I hate myself for this, but what is done is done.

So lets do this journal here serious from right now.

Official start of trading just my setups and nothing else is 26-June-2012, 06:00 New York.
The last 2 trades do not count, they were useless garbage.
I will make 50 perfect trades after my rules, starting from the next one.

I expect 1 - 3 trades a week.

Gentleman, Lets get ready to rumble.

Cheers,

the trading machine,

HTR

P.S.: But first i need to sleep a few hours, then i will fight back and make no more mistakes.
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Quote from riffrafffpatrol:

You are totally missing the point. I am talking about THE LEAST AMOUNT OF RISK while allowing for the MOST PROFIT POTENTIAL- that is chart based with a proper setup. Your stats are good but not optimal bottom line. Take a look at AAPL on the 5min chart right now.... low of day is 568.81.... a reversion to the mean strategy with an ultra conservative target of the 8 EMA has returned $ .75 when price revisted the zone down to $ 569... $ .19 WITHIN THE LOW OF DAY BUT REVERSED BEFORE GETTING THERE! $ .19!! Why didnt the MMs sweep all the "amateurs" with their stops just below??? The bid/ask in AAPL is often easily double or more that differential! Then what happens is AAPL AGAIN retests $ 569 but stops dead in its tracks... this time returning $ 1.16! AGAIN-- only $ .20 tick and look at all the amateurs that could be flushed out. The next candle revists $ 569.38... higher highs... hmmm... aapl showing strength (incidentally the market was hitting new lows when aapl went to $ 569... relative strength clue)... this time AAPL returns $ 1.41 and makes it to the 21 EMA...

Had you positioned sized for some significant stop loss below the low of the day YOU ARE FORCED TO REDUCE CONTRACT/SHARE SIZE WHICH AS A RESULT REDUCES PROFIT.... IN LIEU OF INCREASING CONTRACT SIZE W/O INCREASING RISK!

You are dead wrong my friend... You CANNOT have it both ways....it's mathematically IMPOSSIBLE...
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Now on the flip side-- tight intraday peaks and valleys can also utlize tight stops---AAPL first strong resistance on the way back up was $ 571.50 on the 7:50 5 min candle... on the 8:05 candle price revisted the area back to 571.44 and then the next candle 571.40... $ .06-10 before reversing for a $ 2.44 move!!! LOL-- then at 8:55 back to 571.46 again before reversing for a $ 2.03 move!!! Surely market makers woudve brought the price up a little further to sweep intraday resistance players at key pivot points???

Multiple times both on long and short side.

Case closed.
 
Quote from riffrafffpatrol:

Now on the flip side-- tight intraday peaks and valleys can also utlize tight stops---AAPL first strong resistance on the way back up was $ 571.50 on the 7:50 5 min candle... on the 8:05 candle price revisted the area back to 571.44 and then the next candle 571.40... $ .06-10 before reversing for a $ 2.44 move!!! LOL-- then at 8:55 back to 571.46 again before reversing for a $ 2.03 move!!! Surely market makers woudve brought the price up a little further to sweep intraday resistance players at key pivot points???

Multiple times both on long and short side.

Case closed.
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Actually not quite closed yet-- I also want to point out a condition where if AAPL revisits the low of the day shortly from the time of this posting it would NOT BE ADVISED TO ENTER WITH A STOP AT THE LOW! The market the last half hour has been trending up-- aapl however is now showing relative weakness with lower highs.... AAPL IS MORE LIKELY TO BREACH ITS LOW NOW. In addition- symmetrical triangle forming on 15min/5min charts with the prior trend pointing down... market continuing to make new highs. This has a very high likelihood of tanking if market turns on its resistance. New lows are a high prob... It will have NOTHING TO DO WITH MARKET MAKERS SWEEPING STOPS HOWEVER!
 
Oh, dang, I realize as I am posting I miss read the title of the thread. I thoought it said" 90% urinate". I was going to say we all urinate, but then realized the title. Then I realized most of us traders actually deficate, out of our mouths, about how well we do. Then it made sense. You meant to say 90% of traders are full of shit about how well they do, including you.
:D
 
Quote from riffrafffpatrol:

Actually not quite closed yet-- I also want to point out a condition where if AAPL revisits the low of the day shortly from the time of this posting it would NOT BE ADVISED TO ENTER WITH A STOP AT THE LOW! The market the last half hour has been trending up-- aapl however is now showing relative weakness with lower highs.... AAPL IS MORE LIKELY TO BREACH ITS LOW NOW. In addition- symmetrical triangle forming on 15min/5min charts with the prior trend pointing down... market continuing to make new highs. This has a very high likelihood of tanking if market turns on its resistance. New lows are a high prob... It will have NOTHING TO DO WITH MARKET MAKERS SWEEPING STOPS HOWEVER!
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As predicted with high probability-- AAPL broke low and big time-- 567.62-- $ 1.19 breach. For those with a wide stop -- a huge loss was incurred vs the novice trader that disregarded the current setup and chose to go long with a tight stop below the then current low...

It's the setup that makes using pivot highs/lows effective or not.
 
Quote from riffrafffpatrol:

As predicted with high probability-- AAPL broke low and big time-- 567.62-- $ 1.19 breach. For those with a wide stop -- a huge loss was incurred vs the novice trader that disregarded the current setup and chose to go long with a tight stop below the then current low...

It's the setup that makes using pivot highs/lows effective or not.
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And now... since aapl is showing considerable relative weakness-- the low was breached AGAIN! 567.41.... not just a quick sweep but $ over $ .20... why? Cuz MMs said that's where the amateurs stops are! Yep uh huh!!!

No-- weak stock in a strong market.... plain and simple.
 
Quote from riffrafffpatrol:

And now... since aapl is showing considerable relative weakness-- the low was breached AGAIN! 567.41.... not just a quick sweep but $ over $ .20... why? Cuz MMs said that's where the amateurs stops are! Yep uh huh!!!

No-- weak stock in a strong market.... plain and simple.
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6/14 aapl pivot low $ 567.26... price reverses strong with 3 large extended range candles on a 5 min chart for a $ 5 move.

Where did price stop today for AAPL? $ 567.33... WITHIN $ .07!!! LOL--$ .07!!! Where did price go from there today? $ 572!!

Maximum profit... LEAST AMOUNT OF RISK.
 
Quote from HATEtheRisk:

This is especially for "Atticus" "Ammo" "frankmaltagliat" and
"Laissez Faire" - i think you guys are great.
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Why is a thread with a 90% loss rate dedicated to me? :p
 
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