90% winners - really?

[dtrader98]

Along the lines of OP and Random.Capital ... here's a freebee.
Just go long SPY Open for 0.1%/trade TP or Exit EOD, with 10% drawdown/trade max.
100% of SPY history backtestable.

%win rate is superb 87%
commission, slippage, net expectation..
not so superb.

It is a very good thought exercise though.
These kinds of observations help one to see things from a more statistical perspective.

 

[spider348]

You can have 99 of 100 trades profitable and still loose money.
No mention of draw downs which is odd.
Heck, I can write an auto strategy in 2 minutes that is 100% - just have to wait for the price to hit the target - lol.

 

[Peternam]

Quote from Macho:

Lazy !!

ID 040337.Since 08. CTA member also.

Could be a member of the Taliban

:eek: with a first name NIGEL!!

Hasn't filed for any exemptions. No accounts. And is soliciting for accounts.

Probably NO record to back the trading up.

typing in 040337 in http://www.nfa.futures.org/basicnet/

gives ZIP.

 

[SunTrader]

Quote from austinp:

But in the end over time, .........

I agree - with the sentiment of keeping things simple but then disagree as far as the validity of data mining or pattern recognition.

That is how I keep things simple.

To each their own.

 

[goodgoing]

Hit rate is inversely proportional to profit target only if you assume a very low reward to risk ratio. Win rate means nothing. You ought to look at the profit factor. Profit factor goes negative for high win rate with low reward to risk ratio.