90% Profitable Setup

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Quote from atticus:

Spectra, thanks for the link. As I suspected, it's >80% at up to 5:1 risk-reward. I appreciate you candor, but I've never met a successful futures trader who would entertain anything greater than 1:1, let alone 5:1.
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Yes, that is the main point, but most beginners don't have an understanding of risk/reward as it pertains to winning percentage.

This is what I feel is disingenuous about these claims (well, part of it, anyway).
 
Quote from atticus:

Spectra, thanks for the link. As I suspected, it's >80% at up to 5:1 risk-reward. I appreciate you candor, but I've never met a successful futures trader who would entertain anything greater than 1:1, let alone 5:1.
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The question remains "is there an edge" even a small one? A small edge played with enought money can be profitable.
What I'd like to know is what kind of drawdown would one have to endure and for how long?

Also how long a period was the back test done over?
 
Quote from Boib:

The question remains "is there an edge" even a small one? A small edge played with enought money can be profitable.
What I'd like to know is what kind of drawdown would one have to endure and for how long?

Also how long a period was the back test done over?
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To me, the bigger question is 'Is it ethical to describe backtest results as a '90% profitable setup'? In fact, if you have a system that backtests to 90% profitability, you absolutely, positively do NOT have a system that is 90% profitable. The only system that is 90% profitable is one that has been traded over an extended period of time and can produce audited results at 90% win rate. I would suggest that no such system has ever existed.

If you have backtesting results, you have a system that may or may not be 90% profitable.

It is easy to make a system that backtests to 90% profitability over a short period. I have done it many times in Amibroker.

Would I ever trade one of those systems? Absolutely not. It would be like asking the markets to take all my money.
 
Quote from traderNik:

Ummm.... huh??

You don't want 10,000 people hitting it? Why not???

You don't want thousands of people asking you questions about your service?? I thought you'd want that for sure!! I sure as hell would if I were in an advisory business! The more people asking questions, the better, right???

That is just bizarre to me. If you have proof that you have a system that generates 90% winning trades and you want to vend it, I would think that you would be trying to get 10,000 people to be aware of it!!!

I said my piece about your claims, and I really didn't want to question your bona fides any more. I just wanted to see the backtesting results. But I'm sorry, this is just a very weird thing to me. It is the opposite of what I would expect you to say.

(Confused)
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Spectra, could you respond to this? I am thoroughly baffled by your comments about not wanting people seeing your backtest results and asking questions about your product.
 
I have about 5, I'm fine for now. Thanks

Ok atticus on the screen cap--

Keep in mind as previously stated this is for only the last 6 months. Once I get my TS switched over I will post the last few years. I'm mainly concerned with the last year or two since markets change personality.

ms1024.jpg
 
Quote from traderNik:

Spectra, could you respond to this? I am thoroughly baffled by your comments about not wanting people seeing your backtest results and asking questions about your product.
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Sure I'll respond.

I give it out all the time by email but I'd to do so more on a personal level. Like when you register for a free seminar. You dont just click on a free link, you enter your information.. or for a contest at a store.. etc.. If someone is that interested they'll shoot me a message. Two people already did within the last hour. I'd like to get a chance to talk to that person and see what type of trades they are looking for etc.

CajunSniper / Puretick.com Administrator-Trader
 
Quote from Spectra:

I'd like to get a chance to talk to that person and see what type of trades they are looking for etc.
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What type of person wouldn't be looking for a 90% accurate setup?
 
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