I posted this as a reply in the futures forum. but it is really about trading and not only futures.
I am usually puzzled by the statement that 90% of traders loose. It is a vague and rather meaningless statement.
traders? there are all kind of traders, trading all kind of things. are we talking online private investors trying to trade ? hedge fund managers ? currency traders ? floor trader for that matter..
the word 'trader' is so overused.
don't get me wrong. most reader of this forum are not making money (not even a buck). they should consider themselves lucky if they are break even (it's a big achievement already). but that's no reason to use 'trader' as a catch all to say we all loose.
now if most amateur traders (or junior pro traders) fail, it's in part because they have the wrong idea about what trading is about. I learned that lesson along with so many when the nasdaq collapse caught me while I used to think i knew what trading was (fool!).
It cost a lot. 30% before I even started to understand and a little more until I turned the corner.
that's usually when you'll know if you will ever get it or not (when you loose a lot).
the problem is the wrong perception of the market. that's why psychology is often mentioned as the most important thing. it is not, a sound system is, then psychology. but anyway. psychology is important because the perception is so difficult to change.
I remember someone here mentioned something very interesting about trading your own equity curve. It was a very nice way to put it.
Think about it (I tried already to write about this but let me try this new way) :
if you are always loosing, it means your equity curve is going down. why not short yourself ?
(what?! that's it, tntneo lost it! :eek: )
no, no, think about it. you would make money if you or someone would trade against yourself. YOU ARE ALWAYS GOING DOWN : I just short you and I will make money !
that's the idea about doing the opposite of what you are doing, then you will make money.
my experience is just that. I became successful when I (finally) understood what I was really doing and why. since that was not working, I started to do the contrary. from another thread I wrote "the edge is about removing what does not work, not ask for what works".
let's say you always fail (90% of you, if I must believe the word on the street). why don't you do the opposite of what you do ?
yes, it is very difficult (psychology prevents you to do it). but that's the only way !
that's also why, success is very personal because each trader fails in a very specific way. that's the very way he must reverse.
Also, I know, sometimes some strategy are difficult to reverse. my strategies were not that easy to reverse because of very active time trame. I slowed down and reversing the logic was indeed possible. the point is you can always reverse what you do. it is just hard to do. that's the price to pay.
if you constantly do the wrong thing, you have within you to do constantly the right thing. And the only person preventing that is you. not the broker, not the market, not your best half or whoever.
people fail because of their perception of the market and what they are supposed to do. Also, a big side effect of trading against yourself is that you see the market in a totally different perspective. You dissociate yourself from the trading, you can become more objective and in a way you become a bit the market.
you know each time you say 'they' when trading pointing to the supposed people taking your money, 'they' becomes you (since you trade against yourself. You might see better the market dynamics with that perspective because, again, you dissociated yourself from the trading. and that, instead of projecting your view, wish, hope, fear or greed on the market, which could not care less.
anyway.. just think about it.
tntneo
PS : guys, don't get me wrong. you need a methodic approach. my suggestion here is to consider that this approach might be simply the opposite of what you are doing now. it can be something else and what you are doing now (if it works! why change? you made it already). if you have no method, no plan, then you are just chasing random trades with probably a bias in a direction (long probably). this pseudo random will never work. at least to have a chance to succeed you need a method (probably based on technical analysis or tape reading). once you have a method (the proof is when you can write all the steps down) then my post above makes sense to you. it might even open the door. if not, well.. anyway.. you did not even pay me 2 cents so...
tntneo
I am usually puzzled by the statement that 90% of traders loose. It is a vague and rather meaningless statement.
traders? there are all kind of traders, trading all kind of things. are we talking online private investors trying to trade ? hedge fund managers ? currency traders ? floor trader for that matter..
the word 'trader' is so overused.
don't get me wrong. most reader of this forum are not making money (not even a buck). they should consider themselves lucky if they are break even (it's a big achievement already). but that's no reason to use 'trader' as a catch all to say we all loose.
now if most amateur traders (or junior pro traders) fail, it's in part because they have the wrong idea about what trading is about. I learned that lesson along with so many when the nasdaq collapse caught me while I used to think i knew what trading was (fool!).
It cost a lot. 30% before I even started to understand and a little more until I turned the corner.
that's usually when you'll know if you will ever get it or not (when you loose a lot).
the problem is the wrong perception of the market. that's why psychology is often mentioned as the most important thing. it is not, a sound system is, then psychology. but anyway. psychology is important because the perception is so difficult to change.
I remember someone here mentioned something very interesting about trading your own equity curve. It was a very nice way to put it.
Think about it (I tried already to write about this but let me try this new way) :
if you are always loosing, it means your equity curve is going down. why not short yourself ?
(what?! that's it, tntneo lost it! :eek: )
no, no, think about it. you would make money if you or someone would trade against yourself. YOU ARE ALWAYS GOING DOWN : I just short you and I will make money !
that's the idea about doing the opposite of what you are doing, then you will make money.
my experience is just that. I became successful when I (finally) understood what I was really doing and why. since that was not working, I started to do the contrary. from another thread I wrote "the edge is about removing what does not work, not ask for what works".
let's say you always fail (90% of you, if I must believe the word on the street). why don't you do the opposite of what you do ?
yes, it is very difficult (psychology prevents you to do it). but that's the only way !
that's also why, success is very personal because each trader fails in a very specific way. that's the very way he must reverse.
Also, I know, sometimes some strategy are difficult to reverse. my strategies were not that easy to reverse because of very active time trame. I slowed down and reversing the logic was indeed possible. the point is you can always reverse what you do. it is just hard to do. that's the price to pay.
if you constantly do the wrong thing, you have within you to do constantly the right thing. And the only person preventing that is you. not the broker, not the market, not your best half or whoever.
people fail because of their perception of the market and what they are supposed to do. Also, a big side effect of trading against yourself is that you see the market in a totally different perspective. You dissociate yourself from the trading, you can become more objective and in a way you become a bit the market.
you know each time you say 'they' when trading pointing to the supposed people taking your money, 'they' becomes you (since you trade against yourself. You might see better the market dynamics with that perspective because, again, you dissociated yourself from the trading. and that, instead of projecting your view, wish, hope, fear or greed on the market, which could not care less.
anyway.. just think about it.
tntneo
PS : guys, don't get me wrong. you need a methodic approach. my suggestion here is to consider that this approach might be simply the opposite of what you are doing now. it can be something else and what you are doing now (if it works! why change? you made it already). if you have no method, no plan, then you are just chasing random trades with probably a bias in a direction (long probably). this pseudo random will never work. at least to have a chance to succeed you need a method (probably based on technical analysis or tape reading). once you have a method (the proof is when you can write all the steps down) then my post above makes sense to you. it might even open the door. if not, well.. anyway.. you did not even pay me 2 cents so...
tntneo
