90% accuracy
- Thread starter ARogueTrader
- Start date
no way would i claim that. that's not me at all.
WHAT'S UPQuote from nkhoi:
fruity loopy would claim that tho
FRuiTY
Get a life!
I have no doubts that 90% accuracy is possible for many trading systems. What's the big deal and why make an issue about it??
For example, a system that is 90% accurate but with average losses of 8 times the average gain would only have a Profit factor of 1.125. While it would still be 90% accourate, it might not give you sufficient 'edge' to comfortably trade.
Meanwhile, a system with 90% accuracy and average gains equal to average losses would be awesome. I've traded systems such as this in the past, and had a nearly linear uptrending equity curve for the system (in this case, it was ECN arbitrage back in the bubble days).
Systems such as this DO exist, and you'd be crazy to think that the successful traders using such systems are going to tell you anything about them. They would be crazy to teach you their system that is successful for them.
So, to summarize, "Yes" people can be 90% accurate in their market calls (and even potentially losing money while doing it, for that matter). I also know that there are systems out there today that have amazing performance figures for those that trade them, but they will never be 'sold to the public' until they are near worthless. I would suggest developing traders stop attacking others, and instead work harder to find and exploit their 'edge' in the market.
Best of luck,
Eric
P.S. I'll 'give' you an easy system (that I won't trade) that is guarenteed to produce 90%+ accurate trades... Buy the general market every time they pull back 15% from their all-time high... Sell at 15% profit... No stops... => Every trade will be a profit, except potentially the open position you are holding, and I will trust that the market will eventually hit a new high some day, getting you out with another 'profit'. Cheers!
I have no doubts that 90% accuracy is possible for many trading systems. What's the big deal and why make an issue about it??
For example, a system that is 90% accurate but with average losses of 8 times the average gain would only have a Profit factor of 1.125. While it would still be 90% accourate, it might not give you sufficient 'edge' to comfortably trade.
Meanwhile, a system with 90% accuracy and average gains equal to average losses would be awesome. I've traded systems such as this in the past, and had a nearly linear uptrending equity curve for the system (in this case, it was ECN arbitrage back in the bubble days).
Systems such as this DO exist, and you'd be crazy to think that the successful traders using such systems are going to tell you anything about them. They would be crazy to teach you their system that is successful for them.
So, to summarize, "Yes" people can be 90% accurate in their market calls (and even potentially losing money while doing it, for that matter). I also know that there are systems out there today that have amazing performance figures for those that trade them, but they will never be 'sold to the public' until they are near worthless. I would suggest developing traders stop attacking others, and instead work harder to find and exploit their 'edge' in the market.
Best of luck,
Eric
P.S. I'll 'give' you an easy system (that I won't trade) that is guarenteed to produce 90%+ accurate trades... Buy the general market every time they pull back 15% from their all-time high... Sell at 15% profit... No stops... => Every trade will be a profit, except potentially the open position you are holding, and I will trust that the market will eventually hit a new high some day, getting you out with another 'profit'. Cheers!
What I find interesting is that there are apparently a lot of (wanna be) traders here on ET who seem to post all day. I wonder when (or IF) they even trade. And perhaps out of jealousy they seem to want to attack posts that suggest some level of success. From a psychology perspective, it's likely traders who have not achieved success who seem to question others success ... likely out of envy, and also because they may not be willing to work hard enough to achieve the success that can be so elusive.
