The real question is what was the unemployment rate 1 year after the initial 1929 crash. Of course it eventually reached 45% during the GD but that was after a FEW years into the mess. You are comparing apples to oranges.
9.7% unemployment Green shoots?
- Thread starter noob_trad3r
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The real question is what was the unemployment rate 1 year after the initial 1929 crash. Of course it eventually reached 45% during the GD but that was after a FEW years into the mess. You are comparing apples to oranges.
By referring to 2001-2002 are you saying the events that lead to that recession are similar for the current one? And the recover will be similar. What was the peak for unemployment during that recession somewhere near 6.3% in June of 2003.
This recession may be different from the last one.
Anyone comparing this recession to any of the last recessions we have had are just fools, I cant stand how some here believe we are going to see a "V" shaped recovery like we saw back in 2002. That recovery led to what we now know as the credit crisis. And guess what the fed is doing the same thing again to drive the markets and economy higher, by throwing monopoly money at the economy, keeping rates at historical lows and creating these crazy programs. Come on, wake up, there isnt any growth in our economy left unless its manipulated with stimulus money and low interest rates, tell me the economy was moving ahead without any of this and I would be on the bulls side of things.
No you wouldn't. You'd find a reason to be bearish. You're what we call a perma bear. Someone who filters out good news, and emphasizes bad. Fundamentally, I can understand your bearishness, and respect that opinion. But I don't respect the fact that you do not acknowledge any good news whatsoever. I have been a bull all year (admitedly, even during the January to March period, where I was really starting to second guess myself), but I can recognize bad news and acknowledge it.
Yeah but look at the volume. GE for example has not even broken the 45M volume level yet.
Lots of short covering before the long weekend etc..
Lots of short covering before the long weekend etc..
I think it might make for a good thread on its own, "why this recession is different than the rest" and note the difference, or the arguments as to why it's not so different. It would be assured to be a lively discussion.
One difference is that we don't have strong leadership in Washington. They have the public running scared. Higher taxes, socialized health care, crap and trade, etc. That is not a good way to get the people feeling confident enough to build a new home or remodel the kitchen. Once the building permits start trending higher, then I will start feeling pretty good about future prospects of recovery.
Since when has the news made any difference? Just ride the trend and when it reverses change course.
Isn't that what us traders are suppose to do? Have you made any money on this up trend? You seem very angry with this market. It does what it does.
Like Ivanovich says "keep stops tight" and ride the wave. Is it not that simple?
Everyone knows job losses will eventually level off, I highly doubt we even go back above the 500,000 job loss mark anytime soon, I think we will see job losses between -75k--300k for the next 6 months, might see an uptick to the positive side in the 1st half of 2010, however creating upwards of 300,000+ every month anytime soon is far, far off. As much as I see a positive in job growth it will certainly come with higher interest rates, threat of inflation and a falling dollar. Everyone has to consider that the fed is going to be extremely slow at raising rates, they should be raising rates at this very second.
You couldn't be more right. Its funny how we didnt hear much from these 'there is more room in this rally' in the huge short squeezes of 2008, they all failed. Where were the folks bragging how they are so good in predicting when there is 'more room'?You would think ET is full of architects by all these perma 'more room' folks