9/20/05: The Only Direction To Trade Is...

Quote from EtfTraderLives:

And since when does a MASSIVE OUTSIDE REVERSAL DAY result in further upside? That's your belief system since you are obviously biased long.
More...

Actually the data over the past 40 years supports Apex's position. Over that time period, when we've had a +1.5% engulfing day on the SP500, 83% of the time the market was higher 5 days later. If you look at more recent data (5 years) the probablility is even more positive and the returns even higher on avg.

Given these facts, it is you who has a 'belief system' which is trying to justify your short position. It seems Apex is going with precedent.

Could "this time be different"? Sure. But I get a bit nervous whenever someone trots out that old chestnut as it doesn't have a good track record.
 
Quote from Babak:

Actually the data over the past 40 years supports Apex's position. Over that time period, when we've had a +1.5% engulfing day on the SP500, 83% of the time the market was higher 5 days later. If you look at more recent data (5 years) the probablility is even more positive and the returns even higher on avg.

Given these facts, it is you who has a 'belief system' which is trying to justify your short position. It seems Apex is going with precedent.

Could "this time be different"? Sure. But I get a bit nervous whenever someone trots out that old chestnut as it doesn't have a good track record.
More...

Now that's the best post I've read from you Babak . Why can't you proceed on that line of thought rather than bashing.

Now here's my beef with that statistic. You talk about five days later. But how are you trading it? As a swing trader ready to accept five days of hold and long bias with the position you bought into today? (you either bought today, bought yesterday and holding, or are on the sidelines waiting)

Or as a daytrader who bought at the open or near the doldrums based on that statistical data. That person just sold their position at a 0.40% loss 10 minutes after the hour to abide by their own rules.

Further, why in the hell are you guys bashing my position on this basis. You guys say one thing, do another, and end up with egg on your face playing short term games.

You got no conviction.
 
Looks like daytraders believing in the outside reversal day just got their ASS handed to them for a bad day.

So sorry. :D


Hmmm... my position is down some -.10% while the long biased bull daytrader just got his ass whacked for 1.4%. Yep, I'm keeping score.
 
It has become clear, as I am certain it has to many others, that whenever "Babar" and ApexCapital confidently proclaim that the bull trend has resumed that it is a sure fire signal to get short. How or why these same two individuals continue to try their hand at the forecasting profession is beyond me. A little bit of humility is in order. Good day.
 
Quote from Apex Capital:

I believe that the threads above are pretty obvious in regards to LLL and the SPX in that they are position trades and not merely some sort of a scalp.

Your arrogance is really something, and I suspect that it is the same kind of arrogance that allows you to average down into a losing short position the day that the market has a massive OUTSIDE REVERSAL DAY to the upside.

Good Luck to you.
More...

Looks like we had a near massive outside day today in the ES, to the downside.
 
Quote from jackbyrd:

It has become clear, as I am certain it has to many others, that whenever "Babar" and ApexCapital confidently proclaim that the bull trend has resumed that it is a sure fire signal to get short. How or why these same two individuals continue to try their hand at the forecasting profession is beyond me. A little bit of humility is in order. Good day.
More...

If you read Babak's last response, you see a little bit of uncertainty and indifference in his post. More so as the market caved in the opposite direction.

Now he's quite and has to eat his words for a day. Let me savior in Babak's and Apex Capital's TERRIBLY WRONG call.

I SMELL FEAR.
 
Quote from jackbyrd:

It has become clear, as I am certain it has to many others, that whenever "Babar" and ApexCapital confidently proclaim that the bull trend has resumed that it is a sure fire signal to get short. How or why these same two individuals continue to try their hand at the forecasting profession is beyond me. A little bit of humility is in order. Good day.
More...

truer words have not been spoken here sir.
 
This is my last reply to you, etf. I've tried to be civil but it seems all you're interested in is grandstanding.

I don't know what you're smelling - maybe you should change your pants more often.

When the market had a huge reversal day yesterday (did you notice that I didn't once boast about that?) you were nowhere to be found but now come out and beat your chest like a retarded silverback.

As I said, what will be will be. For the record I'm still bullish. And I've decided that my time is much too valuable to be spent attempting to dialogue with someone as ignorant as you.

So welcome to Ignoretown.


Quote from Maverick74:

Looks like we had a near massive outside day today in the ES, to the downside.
More...

Mav, it wasn't an outside day (engulfing) as you say. But it came close. Will things play out as in April where the index frantically went back and forth shaking eveyone's brains out of their skulls (see chart below) before rocketing higher? Maybe. We'll see how it pans out soon enough.

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=867463>
 
Quote from Babar:

As I said, what will be will be. For the record I'm still bullish. And I've decided that my time is much too valuable to be spent attempting to dialogue with someone as ignorant as you.

So welcome to Ignoretown.
More...

ETF, pat yourself on the back for a job well done!
you're very lucky to be on the elephants ignore.
again, many kudos on a job well done!
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top