9/20/05: The Only Direction To Trade Is...

[EtfTraderLives]

DOWN

This market is setting up to tank hard in the next 3 months. This weakness has already displayed itself LAST WEEK.

Reasons why:

1) Triple top in Naz w/lower high
2) SPX inclined triple top
3) Oil hovering at $65/barrel hurting consumers and eating away at corporate profits
4) Hurricane disasters taking toll on property insurance industry. Look for liquidation to raise cash.
5) Housing market topping and starting to sour

You thought October '87 was bad? This one is going to BE WORSE! Look for 40% declines in all indexes!!!

Its going to be ugly!

 

[peilthetraveler]

Quote from EtfTraderLives:

DOWN

This market is setting up to tank hard in the next 3 months. This weakness has already displayed itself LAST WEEK.

Reasons why:

1) Triple top in Naz w/lower high
2) SPX inclined triple top
3) Oil hovering at $65/barrel hurting consumers and eating away at corporate profits
4) Hurricane disasters taking toll on property insurance industry. Look for liquidation to raise cash.
5) Housing market topping and starting to sour

You thought October '87 was bad? This one is going to BE WORSE! Look for 40% declines in all indexes!!!

Its going to be ugly!

So let me know what you are going short on so i can be on the other side of your trades. You are forgetting the golden rule. "The market will do whatever it has to to prove you wrong."

 

[Trend Fader]

I agree we are going lower... but we will go lower in such a way that whenever you short weakness.. u will get ripped apart.

 

[SethArb]

I remember seeing those NAS / NIKKEI overlay charts ....

or those 1929 dow / current dow charts

a few yrs ago

are they still in line or have they diverged yet ?

 

[Apex Capital]

Quote from EtfTraderLives:

DOWN

This market is setting up to tank hard in the next 3 months. This weakness has already displayed itself LAST WEEK.

Reasons why:

1) Triple top in Naz w/lower high
2) SPX inclined triple top
3) Oil hovering at $65/barrel hurting consumers and eating away at corporate profits
4) Hurricane disasters taking toll on property insurance industry. Look for liquidation to raise cash.
5) Housing market topping and starting to sour

You thought October '87 was bad? This one is going to BE WORSE! Look for 40% declines in all indexes!!!

Its going to be ugly!

What is obvious . . . is obviously WRONG.

 

[vulture]

Quote from Apex Capital:

What is obvious . . . is obviously WRONG.

Well Waggie, every other trader site I frequent has a plethora of guys shouting 1300-1400 SPX, some even have more outlandish upside targets. All of this has been going on since early March. During this same time span, I have yet to notice anyone suggest even modest downside targets. It's as if a normal correction of 10% is outlawed these days. 40% is a pretty large number, I would agree with that.

 

[MacroEvent]

Quote from vulture:

Well Waggie, every other trader site I frequent has a plethora of guys shouting 1300-1400 SPX, some even have more outlandish upside targets. All of this has been going on since early March. During this same time span, I have yet to notice anyone suggest even modest downside targets. It's as if a normal correction of 10% is outlawed these days. 40% is a pretty large number, I would agree with that.

excellent observation --- the liquidity pumpers had a good sales job going {as oil was drastically increasing with other commodities, while inflation was building a good uptrend, and the market was losing leadership in several sectors}.

what we do have so far is a good "trading range" market and that is about it.

 

[Apex Capital]

Quote from vulture:

Well Waggie, every other trader site I frequent has a plethora of guys shouting 1300-1400 SPX, some even have more outlandish upside targets. All of this has been going on since early March. During this same time span, I have yet to notice anyone suggest even modest downside targets. It's as if a normal correction of 10% is outlawed these days. 40% is a pretty large number, I would agree with that.

Yes, 40% is a rather outlandish number, especially without any time frame considered.

As for today, I have 1212.69 as my SPX target which is basically a typical "measured-move" calculation in which this last decline of the past 3 days is 1.382 times the initial decline off of the 1243.13 high.

1208.38 would be 1.618 times the initial decline.

Stay nimble!

 

[EtfTraderLives]

Quote from peilthetraveler:

So let me know what you are going short on so i can be on the other side of your trades. You are forgetting the golden rule. "The market will do whatever it has to to prove you wrong."

And your too late to the party!

 

[EtfTraderLives]

Quote from Apex Capital:

What is obvious . . . is obviously WRONG.

What is obvious is your going to be leaning the wrong way Apex. You should have been short A LONG TIME AGO IF YOU WERE ANY GOOD!