87 crash

[waggie945]

There are a ton of customers out there that are short bonds. No one, and I mean NO ONE is looking for rates to head back down.

With [M3] having collapsed (since mid-August) it appears that the largest percentage decline has taken place in the money supply in 59 YEARS!

Be careful here.
DEFLATION could be alive and very well, my friends.
In fact, wouldn't one tend to argue that the 10 year bond yield be quite a bit higher given the way that the commodity complex has rallied. Gold, Silver, Soybeans, and Crude Oil for example?

Interesting.
Perhaps the big bear of DEFLATION is still alive and well.
Watch the the commodity complex closely my friends.
If they top here and roll-over, bonds could really scream, and the stock market could take one helluva dive . . .

:eek:

 

[illiquid]

Ouch for those short bonds today

 

[mind]

Quote from Maureen Dowd:

You're a moronic idiot. Please I beg you, STOP POSTING YOUR STUPID DRIVEL!

dear maureen

please continue. please.

peace

 

[mind]

Quote from chasinfla:

the dollar is not 'plunging' or 'going to hell.' it's near the bottom of a 10 year range.

the cost of money is lower now than it has been in a very long time.

the world and this nation with its business and moral leadership and innovation are on the cusp of one of the most remarkable periods of growth it's ever known.

we are in a war with several fronts, real threats and real risks. if we remain united against our enemies, we will see victory and prosperity. Two thirds of the world is longing to enter the 21st century, to live free and productive lives. We owe it to them to lead them in. In doing so, we all prosper.

I am not american and i deeply admire this spirit. and I am glad and sad at the same time that i am unwilling and unable to join it.


peace

 

[mind]

that this is a very exciting time for investment and trading.

stock extreme
interest rate extreme
vola extreme
dollar extreme
yen extreme

us fighting
china booming
euroland arguing and uniting
russia stranging

media proclaiming new constant growth


there is a lot of money to be made now. i would favour the shortStock side as well, but as the hedge fund manager earlier on this thread indicated, hardly any bear survived this bull spirit of recent months. we tried to short the sp since 1030. just a small fraction of the portfolio, but guess our willingnes to try it again ...

looking for buying puts as well now. but it is just hard to loose theta day by day. hardly anyone makes money in the long run by buying options.


peace

 

[formikatrading]

The trend is your friend -- until it ends.

 

[TempusFugit]

Reading all the bearish comments on this thread makes me...
sigh a big sigh of relief.

If you all were bullish, then I would be concerned about a crash.

Please keep shorting and buying puts because, as the old saw says, the market climbs a wall of worry.

PS: Any bears reckon that the tremendous productivity growth exhibited by the US economy DURING A RECESSION might just set us up for another spurt of 90s style growth? The irony is that you use the internet (e.g., in posting here) but don't recognize that its real economic potential has yet to be felt!

 

[ARogueTrader]

The 90's growth did not have the same burden of personal debt we have today, an aging work force nearing retirement age, underfunded pension plans for those retirees, exportation of jobs overseas, $34.00 a barrel oil, terrorism concerns and related costs, out of control health care costs, etc.

Quote from TempusFugit:

Reading all the bearish comments on this thread makes me...
sigh a big sigh of relief.

If you all were bullish, then I would be concerned about a crash.

Please keep shorting and buying puts because, as the old saw says, the market climbs a wall of worry.

PS: Any bears reckon that the tremendous productivity growth exhibited by the US economy DURING A RECESSION might just set us up for another spurt of 90s style growth? The irony is that you use the internet (e.g., in posting here) but don't recognize that its real economic potential has yet to be felt!

 

[illiquid]

Not a big deal that a few people on this thread are bearish -- how many pundits and fund managers on the tube are bullish? Almost all. And they're the ones who will move this market.

 

[TempusFugit]

Quote from illiquid:

Not a big deal that a few people on this thread are bearish -- how many pundits and fund managers on the tube are bullish? Almost all. And they're the ones who will move this market.

No, the people who speak with large $$ move markets, and plenty of them are careful (bearish) now too.

I do recognize the problems we face (deficits, social security black holes and the like) but I don't reckon they'll cause a crash per se RIGHT NOW, or even this year.

I plan to be invested in the market through most of this decade. But when the baby boomers start retiring en masse I'll move my money to ...India... or maybe just in my pocket.

And just for added emphasis: don't discount the fact that the economic potential of the internet is only beginning to be felt by the mass market. Add to that the fact that in ten years India and China each will have created more middle class consumers than are alive today in the good old US of A, well, I wouldn't bet against capitalism.