85% of traders dont understand trading.

[athlonmank8]

Quote from Joab:

So you can read minds ?

At any given moment in time this can change due to several factors that are completely outside of your awareness.

History does repeat itself BUT it's always different each time.

Joab. Where is price velocity likely to be greatest to the upside? Directly after a sell-off to the stocks 52-week low?

Or after it passes through to it's 52-week high?

Remember SOLF? Several traders sold the first gap up thinking price was too high. Hell, everyone in your thread was looking to go short for some reason (options can be an exception).

HOWEVER if you analyzed the chart you would see that SOLF not only overshot the 52-week high but also had no meaniningful resistance.

So what do we expect price to do? Well considering we obviously have a strong demand for the "product" and no meaningful resistance until who knows when. I would assume that price will continue (breakout after breakout) to a point in which demand tapers off (at botht he bid and the offer), and strong selling incurs.

So what's the true value for SOLF? Who knows and who cares. Your goal isn't to predict price.

 

[athlonmank8]

Quote from ozzietrader:



Unless you are short.



You said it yourself earlier. A traders goal is to assume that price will move in a certain direction. Over here, we call that prediction. [/B]

Alright. I suppose your correct. But the whole problem is that when you think in terms of prediction most traders view price as something of major significance on a technical level.

 

[athlonmank8]

Like I said....this primarily applies to Technical.

Fundamentals on the other hand is major part of long-term, medium-term trading. They're only significant in the time period they can be applied to. (Typically day, week, month, year timeframes.) This can be used to interpret price and whether or not it is too high or too low.

Since fudamentals rarely change over 15 minute time frames...there is no need for it when daytrading. AKA ignore price.

 

[Joab]

Quote from athlonmank8:

Joab. Where is price velocity likely to be greatest to the upside? Directly after a sell-off to the stocks 52-week low?

Or after it passes through to it's 52-week high?



Your goal isn't to predict price.

LOL

But that's exactly what you've just assumed by the first 2 statements.

Are you sure you don't predict ??

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from Digs:

Best trading book ever

WINNER TAKE ALL
William R Gallacher
isbn: 0-7863-1191-6

Pure Technical Analysis traders rubbish this book, but they never get super rich.

Find a trend with powerful fundamentals, and use technical analysis as a tool to get in a very long trend.

yes, its certainly one of the best ever.

surf

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from Joab:

So you can read minds ?

At any given moment in time this can change due to several factors that are completely outside of your awareness.

History does repeat itself BUT it's always different each time.

nicely said, joab.

wonder where the plogic/JH non predicting perfect traders are in this thread??

 

[MarkBrown]

Quote from marketsurfer:

nicely said, joab.

wonder where the plogic/JH non predicting perfect traders are in this thread??

oh they will be here shortly you can bet, they can smell realism a mile away.

 

[tfuad]

Quote from athlonmank8:

It is my firm belief that the reason traders lose, is because they dont know how to follow. Instead they want to lead. There's a famous statement.."be first to be second". That holds true for the markets.

Markets move on supply and demand. Fear and greed. NOT indicators.

This is indeed an interesting thread.

I haven't posted on ET for sometime as I've been busy trading and studying.

In essence it's worthwhile to note that while I agree that it's best to allow the market to decide it's own direction before you decide to enter a trade, I have found that it is absolutely crucial to have strict rules as to your entry into that putative "new market direction".

I have my own rules which I use to enter a trade once I think that price action has began establishing a new trend.

As for technical analysis, I have found that cluttering my chart with indicators is not the way to go.

Further, I agree that the "generic" use of "generic" indicators is a formula perfect for hindsight trading and not at all useful for real time decision making. That is, if we're all waiting for MACD to turn, then, well, we're gonna be late to the party and most likely whipsawed!

Take a look at my intraday 421tick ER2 chart.

Now, I've actually programmed my own Trend Bar indicator and Oscillator so that I'm not trading the same signals as everyone else. Further, I understand that no indicator is "perfect". Indicators are simply more or less "probable" than each other.

So to overcome "blind" indicator trading, I have money management rules such as (i) pre-defined profit targets and entry points, (ii) scaling out of/into rules, (iii) when to bring my Stop to Break Even +1 tick and how to trail my final contract.

I find that simply trading the market's direction is not enough. I have to manage my position as well in order to be consistently profitable.

Semantics aside, I think that 85% of Traders don't understand Trading because they don't understand that market direction trading MUST be accompanied with sound and tested trade management.

Hope this helps.

Cheers!

TFuad

 

[ProfLogic]

Quote from fearless9:

golly, now we are finally getting somewhere.
Who ever would have thought that it just might be a matter of fitting self knowledge and trading knowledge into a seamless pattern.

regards
f9

It's the simplest things that are the most confusing.

Good start for a thread.

 

[ProfLogic]

Quote from marketsurfer:

wonder where the plogic/JH non predicting perfect traders are in this thread??

I was sitting back enjoying a good thread.
There is no need to post when others are making such great points. It's nice to sit back and dwell on intelligent posts . . . rather refreshing.
Then "the" predicting imperfect caveman/trader comes out.
Hey, there can't be a quality thought provoking thread established on here unless the cave dwellers with clubs show up. At least we are assured the "I-have-no-original-thoughts" lobby is being righteously represented now.

Merry Christmas!