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800k to lose jobs next year due to housing
- Thread starter capmac
- Start date
Quote from Covertibility:
America's Best and Worst Cities for Crime
Atlanta Chief Calls His City The Most Dangerous in Nation
Atlanta sucks as does much of the south.
actually, i have lived in atlanta, nyc, chicago, LA, and miami....and no atlanta isnt nyc, but its a damn fine city and especially for the money...
I am building a home in Sacramento and I am here to stay (for the time being)
My home is 330K and since we have influx from LA and the Bay Area I am sure I will be ok...
People have sold down CA R/E before only to eat crow and wish they stayed.
Lots of people with money come to Sacto from LA and Bay and move back once the dust settles and jobs kick in again.
(yeah some leave CA and get suicidal when in Atlanta they can't find decent bread, vegetables all year around and decent coffee.....and a decent bath house and .....
My home is 330K and since we have influx from LA and the Bay Area I am sure I will be ok...
People have sold down CA R/E before only to eat crow and wish they stayed.
Lots of people with money come to Sacto from LA and Bay and move back once the dust settles and jobs kick in again.
(yeah some leave CA and get suicidal when in Atlanta they can't find decent bread, vegetables all year around and decent coffee.....and a decent bath house and .....
Quote from andrasnm:
I am building a home in Sacramento and I am here to stay (for the time being)
My home is 330K and since we have influx from LA and the Bay Area I am sure I will be ok...
People have sold down CA R/E before only to eat crow and wish they stayed.
Lots of people with money come to Sacto from LA and Bay and move back once the dust settles and jobs kick in again.
(yeah some leave CA and get suicidal when in Atlanta they can't find decent bread, vegetables all year around and decent coffee.....and a decent bath house and .....
I think SAC area is really the only alternative left in california that might make sense for both housing costs and quality of life. Its the last refuge for business location in the state taht makes sense and might allow employee relocation. The problem of course is that if you are buying now in SAC you are probably at the top of the market and SAC has in my opinion more percentage downside in a correction than near the coast.... but the dollar value of the correction is much less so its not as much as a problem. The BK's in a correction will be near the coast.
Quote from Covertibility:
America's Best and Worst Cities for Crime
Atlanta Chief Calls His City The Most Dangerous in Nation
Atlanta sucks as does much of the south.
Atlanta isn't really part of the south. It's very different and doesn't have any of the typical characteristics you associate with the south..
buy housing stocks?
This Andersen School of Business at UCLA Real Estate forecast that they put out every year has called the last 5 out of the last 0 real estate collaspes.
They may well prove to be right this time....but their record as a forecasting tool is very very poor.
Take this forecast with a mountain-sized grain of salt.
They may well prove to be right this time....but their record as a forecasting tool is very very poor.
Take this forecast with a mountain-sized grain of salt.
Quote from capmac:
Housing Slowdown May Claim 800,000 Jobs
Wednesday December 7, 11:03 am ET
By Alex Veiga, AP Business Writer
Slowdown in U.S. Housing Market Could Claim 800,000 Jobs Next Year, According to Report
LOS ANGELES (AP) -- A sustained decline will hit the U.S. housing market next year, costing the nation as many as 800,000 jobs, according to a new economic report released Wednesday.
The slowdown is likely to last several years, with as many as 500,000 construction jobs and 300,000 financial sector positions lost, the quarterly Anderson Forecast predicted.
"We expect housing to start slowing the economy this quarter or the next," said Edward Leamer, director of the study done at the University of California, Los Angeles.
"Some jobs in manufacturing might well disappear as a result of weakness in housing, but this may be offset by jobs brought home or not lost to foreign competition," he wrote.
The forecast said eight of the last 10 economic recessions were started by housing market slowdowns. Though the coming cooldown will cause a drag on the nation's economy, it will fall short of triggering a recession, the forecast said.
The report cited several signs that the decline could be under way:
-- New construction of housing in October was down 5.6 percent from the previous month, with new construction of single-family housing accounting for a 3.7 percent dip.
-- New home sales have declined.
-- Applications for home mortgages have trended downward since late September as rates increased.
-- In some regions, homes are remaining unsold longer and the pace of housing construction is outpacing population growth, which could spell a decline in demand.
"On all these grounds, we believe housing is due for a sustained decline," economist Michael Bazdarich wrote in the forecast. "The remaining questions are how hard the fall will be and when it will begin."
The forecast for California, where housing prices lead the nation and housing-related jobs have been driving economic growth, resembles the national outlook.
Economist Ryan Ratcliff said the state's housing market will see a slowdown in spending along with job losses in construction and related sectors.
He expects California home prices to plateau while sales and new construction see moderate decreases during two years of weak growth.
"If the housing market slows more than we are expecting, a recession is not out of the question," Ratcliff wrote.
Counties showing signs of a cooldown include San Francisco, where housing sales have been off 20 percent since peaking in June, 2004. San Diego County has seen sales slow about 13 percent, while monthly price gains have plummeted to low single digits.
California's job picture has been lackluster in recent months. The rate of employment growth has slowed after a significant number of jobs were added in July and August.
Construction has remained the fastest-growing sector. But Ratcliff predicts a slowdown in construction activity through 2007 and moderate construction job losses.
Quote from Farside:
NYC and California have become the bastion of the rich from all over the world. People of means are moving to NYC, and many rich foreigners are moving to CA because of the weather. A lot of these people are wealthy business owners, or they inherited money, etc. I don't think real estate will go down that much in either area. What will change is the residents/job base. A friend of mine lives in San Jose, and that whole area has problems staffing jobs paying under $20 an hour, because nobody can afford to live there for that money. The same thing is happening in NYC, the jobs are leaving.
I just rented my house in California to a rich guy from Korea.