Why not just go with the flow based on a higher timeframe like a daily or weekly? Seriously people make this way harder than it needs to be. Trading isn't easy money by any means but being wrong is just plain normal. Unfortunately too many people use the markets to play out a dysfunction of wanting to be proven right.
80% of the time
- Thread starter fordewind
- Start date
Why not just go with the flow based on a higher timeframe like a daily or weekly? Seriously people make this way harder than it needs to be. Trading isn't easy money by any means but being wrong is just plain normal. Unfortunately too many people use the markets to play out a dysfunction of wanting to be proven right.
There are statistical tests designed to understand trending vs. non-trending behaviour in a time series.
One of the name of such programms is channels
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Put it simple, IronChief; its uptrending bull market, downtrending bear market or or sideways slop chop trend[ aka range or barbed wire range,LOL]. Channels help or my favorite, 200 day moving average defines it. Alan Farley says bulls live above 200 d ma; bears live below 200 day moving average....................................................................................................
This is a factual statement.
Good points 1960 and java.
And if some used only straight, rigid trendlines you could get much rangebound-no trends if one wanted to LOL
I like trends , stick a battle tested moving average on 10 + 20 years of monthly candles or barcharts- SPY; get chopped[range chopped slop some] some, but that market still trended up [higher highs, higher lows ] or downtrend bear market lower monthly lows .....much more than 20 %. Thats not out[ flat] @ end of day; nor do i believe everything i read in trading books. I dont really care if its rangebound 80% on rigid straight lines, 5 minute charts. Good non =random move against the herd,1960.
And if some used only straight, rigid trendlines you could get much rangebound-no trends if one wanted to LOL
I like trends , stick a battle tested moving average on 10 + 20 years of monthly candles or barcharts- SPY; get chopped[range chopped slop some] some, but that market still trended up [higher highs, higher lows ] or downtrend bear market lower monthly lows .....much more than 20 %. Thats not out[ flat] @ end of day; nor do i believe everything i read in trading books. I dont really care if its rangebound 80% on rigid straight lines, 5 minute charts. Good non =random move against the herd,1960.
There is no need to predict for tomorrow, just stay 1 hour ahead of the market and you will make good money.