80 % fail at trend trading
- Thread starter oilfxpro
- Start date
It's obvious at this point that you're on a mission to discredit all price action based trading methods, and I can relate to your motives.
But your crusade has backfired, everyone is now fading you; your half baked attempt to discourage new traders has FAILED
Quote from tobbe:
Made my day, thanks.
A real trader went to a trading brothel , all the sluts were were putting on make ups to convince the punters , how beautiful and clean they were .The trader started arguing with these whore about the beauty , the pimps noticed the business interests of the whole brothel were at stake , business started declining when other punters saw the sham .All the pimps started discrediting the first punter , even the priest started discrediting the punter and took the side of the girls , their accomplices started hustling the punter.They all tried to convince the punter and encourage him.
What is the difference between that brothel and E T ?
Some of the slut mentors were feeling exposed about their frauds .They were trying to brainwash new visitors to their sites with the impression, that mentors were teaching something useful with t/a and trend trading to learners.These sluts do not understand trading systems themselves.These trading educators want people to believe in trading systems and always mention stories of Richard Dennis Mr Turtle.They say he was a success and noobs should buy the mentor's course from Mr FARTS and the others .Failure to follow his own rules AND SYSTEMS is a major problem for system traders , and trend trading can be very much systematic trading.
Here is the real truth :
The exact system taught to the Turtles by Dennis has been published in at least two books and can be back-tested to check its performance in recent years. The result of such back-test shows a drastic drop in performance after 1986, and even a flat performance from 1996 to 2009[7]. However, a number of turtles (eg. Jerry Parker of Chesapeake Capital, Liz Cheval of EMC, Paul Rabar) began and continued careers as successful commodity trading managers, using techniques similar but not identical to the Turtle System.
Dennis managed pools of capital for others in the markets for a while, but withdrew from such management in the spring of 1988 after his clients suffered heavy losses. In the Black Monday stock market crash of 1987, he reportedly lost $10 million,[8] with a total of $50 million reportedly lost in 1987-88.[2] In 1990 his firm settled investor complaints of his failure to follow his own rules, for over $2.5 million, without admitting or denying any wrongdoing.[9] He also managed funds for some time in the mid and late 1990s, closing these operations after losses in the summer of 2000.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Dennis
One of my favorite parts of New Market Wizards is when an ex blackjack player is interviewed. ...yada yada yada why don't casinos make changes to the current system of using a fixed number of decks to eliminate card counters? Because 99% of the wanna be's fail at it, lacking discipline to follow their rules. It's more profitable for the casinos to have their business.
So why do people write books about trend trading , sell courses on technical analysis and trend trading , and set up funds which lose money on trend trading?Do they do it for love or to make money from mugs?And why do 95 % lose despite this superb technical analysis and trending trading holy grails?
I'm far from an expert trader....
But those doing the buying (trading) are different folks than those doing the selling.
Certain patterns give you a good risk:reward because they have to. Throw in a little big picture analysis, time of day, trade management, etc and you can increase your odds even more.
Like Redneck has said, there is a time to buy breakouts, there is a time to sell 'em. Trading a system without accounting for context is just lazy and uninformed as it is the most important/difficult part of making any system work.
Just my opinion but it certainly does explain why trading looks so easy after the fact and draws in so many. Just how 'they' like it
But those doing the buying (trading) are different folks than those doing the selling.
Certain patterns give you a good risk:reward because they have to. Throw in a little big picture analysis, time of day, trade management, etc and you can increase your odds even more.
Like Redneck has said, there is a time to buy breakouts, there is a time to sell 'em. Trading a system without accounting for context is just lazy and uninformed as it is the most important/difficult part of making any system work.
Just my opinion but it certainly does explain why trading looks so easy after the fact and draws in so many. Just how 'they' like it
Wide Tailz, your prose is brilliant. Well done, sir.
I find it fascinating that anyone would proclaim themselves a superior trend trader using 15 minute and 30 minute interval data on charts that go back maybe a couple weeks at most.
I suppose that a trend is in the eye of the beholder. Some person's macro perspective is another person's micro it would appear ...
When I traded for a commercial energy company we used Weekly and Monthly data quite frankly in terms of making decisions about balancing our forward book. We called that market "Forward Term" in the electricity world.