80 % fail at trend trading
- Thread starter oilfxpro
- Start date
Those earlier charts you posted are profitable trends. Thus, I'm not sure why you posted those charts with all that junk on it (trendlines and indicators) unless you meant to say the following...
The trade method I'm using that's shown on the charts do not work good enough to exploit trends for profits.
Simply, as you just now stated...100% trends succeed but you have not figure out a way to trade them profitably. Therefore, your trade methods (shown on your charts) or YOU have failed at exploiting trends.
Further, due to the fact that you have "intentionally" not explained your trade method of trading trends via all those trendlines and indicators on your chart...its obvious you don't want to admit that your trade method (entry and exit) has failed to exploit trends or that you're not discicpline enough to follow your trading plan involved in trading trends.
I believe both the above is true for you because you have admitted in other threads you lack the discipline in following whatever trade method you're using. In addition, your charts posted in this thread show nice trends that could have been traded profitably...yet you use the words "fail" to imply that whatever trade method you're using is not good enough to trade trends.
You need to think outside that box you've been stuck in since arriving to elitetrader.com because your trends did not fail. You failed at getting profits out of them.
It can only be defined by a specific trade method the trader is using. For example, lets pretend there's a trend (up or down) that moves 15 points.
1) Trader A method gets into the trend around the 12 area and the method wants a 5 point profit target along with the method not using any stops. Trade moves +3 points into a profitable direction and then retraces...taking the trader eventually out for a loss when the trader just gives up on the trade and then closes the position at a loss.
Trader A method has "failed" in exploiting profits out of that trend even though at one point the method was profitable via +3 points.
2) Trader B method gets into the trend around the 7 area and the method wants a 5 point profit target. Trend moves to 12 and Trader B exits the trade at a profit of +5 points even though the trend moved another 3 points to 15.
Summary
Trader A method has failed at exploiting a successful trend for profits. Therefore, the trend is not profitable to Trader A.
Trader B method was profitable in exploiting a successful trend. Therefore, the trend is profitable to Trader B.
Simply, a "profitable trend" can only be defined by the results of a specific trade method to that particular trader. Another way to look at it...what's profitable to one person will not be profitable to another person due to differences in the trade method.
Oilxpro is trying hard to understand the above which is why he started this thread that "80% of traders will fail at trend trading". Simply, most traders do not have a good enough trade method to exploit trends while the other 20% do have a good enough trade method to exploit trends after a trend has been identified as a trend.
Notice how Oilxpro "does not" talk about that other 20%. nor does he talks about his identification of a trend...you know...at what point in his posted charts did he say it was "a trend".
Thus, is where marketsurfer shows up and says that the other 20% were just "lucky".
The earlier charts are profitable trends in hindsight , they are really not that profitable in practice.
If you look at the chart closely , it shows ranging type trends with choppy volatility , with gap entries which can't be traded , the same set ups producing losses.
Hindsight success is only for trading educators , sponsors , internet marketeers , vendors , after all they need these positive vibes and sentiment and positivity.If there was no positivity about their wares, how could anybody buy their products?If I was paid to create positivity for my clients , I would knock all serious discussion with rebuttals.
The method can be improved to cater for the above type of choppy trends ,and be marginally profitable , but it still does not change the facts about choppy trends.
You posted "hindsight charts"...not someone else. You also used the charts in an attempt to show "failed trading in trends" in a poor effort to imply its the fault of TA without you mentioning a single word about the specific details of your trading in those trends via all those lines and indicators.
Then you mention "the same setups" in your most recent statement as if EVERY trader on this planet is using those shown lines and indicators on your charts. :eek:
Dude, wake up because there's a reason why the other 20% you don't want to talk about are profitable at trading trends. The reason why you don't want to talk about them is because they don't trade like you nor do they identify trends like you do.
Yet, you can't figure out what those other 20% are doing because you're stuck inside the box. That's why you're unable to see profits in those trends on your charts...your trade method sucks in identifying trends and then it sucks again in trading those trends after you've identified the trend.
You're amongst the 80% that failed via your own thread title and hindsight analysis of the charts. You're obviously not amongst the 20% that would have been profitable in trading the exact same price action you trade. That's why you don't want to talk about that 20% because you don't understand what they're doing.
You yourself use to be a vendor and internet marketer.
If you're truly looking for a discussion from vendors and internet marketers about the trend trading...
Why don't you go to forums like ForexFactory and BigMikeTrading where vendors and internet marketers are welcome and a few are trend traders so that you can have a discussion in threads that involve specific trend trading methods
You've been banned from those forums because I do know you have been banned from other forums. ???
Quote from wrbtrader:
You yourself use to be a vendor and internet marketer.
If you're truly looking for a discussion from vendors and internet marketers about the trend trading...
Why don't you go to forums like ForexFactory and BigMikeTrading where vendors and internet marketers are welcome and a few are trend traders so that you can have a discussion in threads that involve specific trend trading methods
You've been banned from those forums because I do know you have been banned from other forums. ???
Forex factory and a few scammers were operating some scams , and I opened my big mouth , so they had to ban me from posting.I am a member of big Mike and traders laboratory , but I don't post there.
Quote from wrbtrader:
You posted "hindsight charts"...not someone else. You also used the charts in an attempt to show "failed trading in trends" in a poor effort to imply its the fault of TA without you mentioning a single word about the specific details of your trading in those trends via all those lines and indicators.
Then you mention "the same setups" in your most recent statement as if EVERY trader on this planet is using those shown lines and indicators on your charts. :eek:
Dude, wake up because there's a reason why the other 20% you don't want to talk about are profitable at trading trends. The reason why you don't want to talk about them is because they don't trade like you nor do they identify trends like you do.
Yet, you can't figure out what those other 20% are doing because you're stuck inside the box. That's why you're unable to see profits in those trends on your charts...your trade method sucks in identifying trends and then it sucks again in trading those trends after you've identified the trend.
You're amongst the 80% that failed via your own thread title and hindsight analysis of the charts. You're obviously not amongst the 20% that would have been profitable in trading the exact same price action you trade. That's why you don't want to talk about that 20% because you don't understand what they're doing.
Here is the problem with trading trends.
Apply a trend trading method to day trading or swing conditions , and traders fail.Here traders enter trades and run profits.Even trend trading methods can fail , if the trends are choppy ,ranging , without much volatility and mixed markets.
Apply a swing trading method to trends , coming out at swing highs and lows , with re-entries , and it works .
Apply a day trading method to trending and swing conditions , it can work.
So there is nothing wrong with the method , it just requires a swing trading /scalping method /choppy trending method , and it can work , and one can see profits from trend set ups .....ones which are difficult to trade.
You need a hammer , screw driver ,drill and different tools for different jobs.Trading requires different methods for different conditions.
I used to apply a trend trading method to day trading , and it did not work.
Oilfxpro, you have answered your own question or observations.
If your trend trading method to day trading does not work...is it obvious to you to stop using the day trading method and continue using your trend trading method for swing trading.
Heck, the goal is to be profitable instead of trying to apply something you're not suitable for using...right. ???
I ask the above because I do specifically remember a prior discussion with you in another thread about why you would continue to use a losing day trading method when you had a profitable swing trading method.
Your reply was that you basically couldn't stop yourself, you had a strong curiousity and that you needed to find a solution for the losing day trading method. Also, you admitted the main problem was that you were not discipline enough to use the method for day trading purposes.
I mention or rehash the above because of your negative commentary in this thread about "hindsight analysis" even though you're the one posting hindsight charts. You basically stated that in looks great in hindsight but losing in real trading (see your below prior quote).
You do realize you're also saying "its not the method"...the problem is the trader.
Thus, the real issue here has nothing to do with vendors or internet marketers because there are plenty of them out there that only swing trade or position trade...no scalping and no day trading as you would know via being a former member of ForexFactory and a current member of BigMikeTrading forums. Therefore, the real issue is once again...
Your discipline problem in applying a day trading method which is what you're really talking about when you said the below quote.
I highly recommend you read carefully some of the many threads in the Journal section by traders that said their trade methods tested positive in backtest or simulator but is not profitable with real money trading. Simply, it's not the method...its the trader discipline problems which is why I will continue saying that most traders are not suitable for trading before the first trade of the day regardless to the method they're using.