80 % fail at trend trading
- Thread starter oilfxpro
- Start date
If 80% fail at trend trading, and 95% fail at trading, it would appear that trend traders have a 15% higher chance of success when compared to the entire population of traderz........
an edge, in other words.
:eek:
an edge, in other words.
:eek:
I learned to use renko charts while experimenting with volume, range, and heiken ashi charts. I found the Renko charts really clear for identification of higher pivot low and lower pivot high price patterns. They also work well for a clear look at recent support and resistance levels from prior price action. I included a chart of CL and the type of trades I look for. I mainly look for pullback entries in short term trends with this style of Renko charting.
Here is Natural Gas example. I trade the NG as well as CL and Forex with same charts.
most people do not know what a trend is
most people do not know to identify a trend: the trend start, various consolidation/pullback phases, late stages, trend ending
plus they do not know how to ride a trend
trend does exist, but as efficient as it becomes, trend becomes fewer and fewer
I am a trend trader. what I know is trend strategy is the most rewardable one. my favoirite one is breakout.
I do not follow technical analysis. I first have a biaes or an expectation, or an opinion or a judgement what the market's big direction, use technical to corfim my opions and then use chart setup to realize my trading ideas.
most people trade too blindly on technical anaylsis, it is not a suprise if 80% fail or 90% fail to me.
trend following has its basis. first trend does exist, but not many whether daily or intra-day, those trending nicely day like FRIday NFLX occupies few of those trading days, and among those tens of thousands of symbols, only few trend daily in months in a year, most are mixed. the odd is low, that is true, based on my statistics, just around 3~10%.
but as you know, the world is really not proportional just as rich and poor, and middle class. those 3~10% control the world, not those 90%. in the market, that is true too.
if you just focus on those 3~10% super trending well stars, it produce far more profits than those average markets.
if you grab NFLX friday, for example, you bought calls 65 at 0.01 with 1000lots, you netted half million in expiration. most accounts far exceed 1000bucks, how about 2000lots of calls, you are millionarie already.
trending trading to me is the most rewardable, I have more losing trades than winning trades, but my few winning trades greatly shadow those numorious small loss trades. statistically, it is a low probabilty event, true, period, but if you net one, your profit far exceed the whole total of those you lost in those high odd event trades. that is why I do not day trade. most guys are obsessed with those small winners with high odd, but they forget those small winners though represent majority, few major big advaeray trades will blwo up their account.
most people do not know to identify a trend: the trend start, various consolidation/pullback phases, late stages, trend ending
plus they do not know how to ride a trend
trend does exist, but as efficient as it becomes, trend becomes fewer and fewer
I am a trend trader. what I know is trend strategy is the most rewardable one. my favoirite one is breakout.
I do not follow technical analysis. I first have a biaes or an expectation, or an opinion or a judgement what the market's big direction, use technical to corfim my opions and then use chart setup to realize my trading ideas.
most people trade too blindly on technical anaylsis, it is not a suprise if 80% fail or 90% fail to me.
trend following has its basis. first trend does exist, but not many whether daily or intra-day, those trending nicely day like FRIday NFLX occupies few of those trading days, and among those tens of thousands of symbols, only few trend daily in months in a year, most are mixed. the odd is low, that is true, based on my statistics, just around 3~10%.
but as you know, the world is really not proportional just as rich and poor, and middle class. those 3~10% control the world, not those 90%. in the market, that is true too.
if you just focus on those 3~10% super trending well stars, it produce far more profits than those average markets.
if you grab NFLX friday, for example, you bought calls 65 at 0.01 with 1000lots, you netted half million in expiration. most accounts far exceed 1000bucks, how about 2000lots of calls, you are millionarie already.
trending trading to me is the most rewardable, I have more losing trades than winning trades, but my few winning trades greatly shadow those numorious small loss trades. statistically, it is a low probabilty event, true, period, but if you net one, your profit far exceed the whole total of those you lost in those high odd event trades. that is why I do not day trade. most guys are obsessed with those small winners with high odd, but they forget those small winners though represent majority, few major big advaeray trades will blwo up their account.
I find it extremely odd that you're unable to exploit "price action failures" if you truly believe in the stats that you talk about. For example, if someone says 90% of breakouts fails or 80% fail at trading trends...wouldn't common sense encourage that person to fade whatever breakouts they're talking about. Therefore, is the fade itself a successful TA technique.
My point is that if you know the stats and you're still unable to exploit the fades or doing the opposite...doesn't that say you're not a good trader.
On a side note, there's a difference between 80% fail at trading trends versus 80% trends fail. Lets see if you're smart enough to know which one implies that most traders have poor trade methods in trading trends while the other 20% are profitable at trading trend. Simply, if 20% are profitable at trading trends...doesn't that in itself implies that "trend trading" is profitable.
Oilxpro, please start thinking outside of the box along with realizing that some traders shouldn't be trading...they'll always be a failure regardless to the trade method they're using.