75% obama victory
- Thread starter marketsurfer
- Start date
Not a bad bet surf as a scalp. I just wouldn't hold it till maturity. Obama isn't 2:1 favored in any realistically weighted polls. As soon as the results start coming in tomorrow evening, Intrade odds are gonna get really tight.
There are a few possible outcomes that I can see.
If FL, NC, or VA suggest a Romney loss, you'll want to cut losses asap and by then you'll prob have lost about 1/2 of your capital. According to most recent polls, this is incredibly unlikely.
If PA exit polls suggest Romney victory, then your bet will jump to about 85 almost instantly. If they say Obama wins PA, it is already priced in, so no real loss for you.
Re: MI and WI see above regarding PA.
If NH goes Romney in exit polling, you'll see your Romney bet going to about 55%. About a 60%ROI, so not bad given the risk.
OH is almost guaranteed to say too close to call until well into the evening. If OH is even a factor in your trade it means that Romney is holding in the must wins of FL, NC, VA. This will result in a tightening in your favor. But if OH starts moving against Romney, get ready to cut.
So your odds of losing are well known, and very low, provided you don't hold till maturity. The most likely scenario is that you jump to about 50%, for a very decent ROI. Then you'll be faced with the typical "bird in the hand" dilemma. I say you should take gains at 50-55.
There are a few possible outcomes that I can see.
If FL, NC, or VA suggest a Romney loss, you'll want to cut losses asap and by then you'll prob have lost about 1/2 of your capital. According to most recent polls, this is incredibly unlikely.
If PA exit polls suggest Romney victory, then your bet will jump to about 85 almost instantly. If they say Obama wins PA, it is already priced in, so no real loss for you.
Re: MI and WI see above regarding PA.
If NH goes Romney in exit polling, you'll see your Romney bet going to about 55%. About a 60%ROI, so not bad given the risk.
OH is almost guaranteed to say too close to call until well into the evening. If OH is even a factor in your trade it means that Romney is holding in the must wins of FL, NC, VA. This will result in a tightening in your favor. But if OH starts moving against Romney, get ready to cut.
So your odds of losing are well known, and very low, provided you don't hold till maturity. The most likely scenario is that you jump to about 50%, for a very decent ROI. Then you'll be faced with the typical "bird in the hand" dilemma. I say you should take gains at 50-55.
