75% obama victory

M

marketsurfer

a quant friend just ran the numbers on prediction markets going back to 1988-- obama has a 75% chance of victory, much higher than intrade. I am long Romney and am hoping for a surprise victory! surf
 
I'm not sure everyone understands what these numbers mean. Intrade, Nate Silver, this guy. This is just the likelihood that Obama will win the 50/50, win or lose. 75% chance does not mean the same as receiving 75% of the votes, or the EC or anything. I had another online discussion today with someone who couldn't figure out how the race is only a few points in Obama's favor, yet Intrade shows 67%.

If Obama wins by 1 electoral vote, then they win the bet.
 
Quote from Tsing Tao:

Crap - Surf is for Romney? Atticus, I might just pay you tonight, man and get it out of the way.
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Quote from marketsurfer:

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I'm not doubting you bought shares. I'm referring to some of your wicked predictions in the past I recall. Gold and ES come to mind off the top of my head as particularly brilliant.
 
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