75% chance of a 50bp 25% of a 25bp move..

[S2007S]

At the moment, the market anticipates at least a quarter-point move, with a 75% chance of a half-point move. But trading on that score has been highly volatile.



:eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:

 

[blackjack007]

where are you getting your data? i see something different.

48% probability of -50bp
24% probability of -25bp
15% probability of -75bp
12% probability of 0bp

 

[The Kin2]

I agree with Blackjack. Your numbers are off. 98.9% of 50% cut when looking at Feb. Futures which might also price in possibility of a suprise rate cut that month.