75 bp cut

drsteph · Jan 14, 2008

Quote from The Kin2:

Also, Fed Fund futures in August are predicting rates at 2.75%

So if we only get .50% cut on the 31st. Then for sure we will we another .25 or .50 cut in March.

I think a lot of people are confusing what their hearts are telling about what the fed should do (raise rates/no cuts) vs. Reality: major cuts are cumming!

Didn't say that the fed wouldn't continue cutting. I think it is just about the SPEED of the cuts rather than the level.

FF futs have priced in 50 bp cuts before and been wrong, I believe.

Still think 25bp cut.

artis74 · Jan 14, 2008

if they cut only 25bos at the metting and nothing before hand. You can catch the dow at 1220 that day

Ivanovich · Jan 14, 2008

Quote from drsteph:

25 bp cut - allows for continued cuts in the near term, and gives the market time to absorb its excesses. Some pain, but not armageddon. The wisest and therefore most likely choice.

An old boss of mine used to say "There you go making sense again. Don't confuse the issue with facts."

MajorUrsa · Jan 14, 2008

Am I the only one that thinks a .75 cut will cause the exact opposite effect of what is intended? Talk about shock! The market will be so shocked it will collapse.

There is something seriously wrong here. It's very obvious but it is still unclear. Another WW? I don't think Bush&Cheney plan to leave the Whitehouse this year.

daddyeaux · Jan 14, 2008

when the next cut comes and the long dated paper tanks, then we're in deep shyt

trefoil · Jan 14, 2008

Quote from MajorUrsa:

Am I the only one that thinks a .75 cut will cause the exact opposite effect of what is intended? Talk about shock! The market will be so shocked it will collapse.

There is something seriously wrong here. It's very obvious but it is still unclear. Another WW? I don't think Bush&Cheney plan to leave the Whitehouse this year.

Why does this crap always show up in this place?
Get a grip.

Eliot Hosewater · Jan 14, 2008

Quote from MajorUrsa:

Am I the only one that thinks a .75 cut will cause the exact opposite effect of what is intended? Talk about shock! The market will be so shocked it will collapse.

There is something seriously wrong here. It's very obvious but it is still unclear. Another WW? I don't think Bush&Cheney plan to leave the Whitehouse this year.

That's good since they are due to vacate the premises Jan 2009.

trefoil · Jan 14, 2008

MajorUrsa · Jan 15, 2008

Quote from Eliot Hosewater:

That's good since they are due to vacate the premises Jan 2009.

Hehe, good one. You're right.
But don't say I didn't warn you.
Does anyone know if a president can be changed during state of emergency?

drsteph · Jan 15, 2008

After friday and today, with citi's dividend cuts and more bad news likely in the morning, I will revise my original statement and increase the chance of the rate cut to 50bp, particularly if we have a bad day tomorrow and close well below 12500 with benign inflation numbers this week. 25 bp cut still not out of the question, depending on how events unfold.

Got to know when you're wrong sometimes... no shame, no blame.

I'd rather be happy than right. Some of you may know what that means.