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75 bp cut
- Thread starter kashirin
- Start date
Quote from drsteph:
Here's my take on the rate cut issue.
Obviously, Bernanke can't raise. Financial markets would implode & he would be replaced by someone who would immediately cut rates.
No change - not likely. Would be percieved as being arrogant and out of touch. Also subject to replacement.
75-100bp cut -not a chance.
50 bp cut - an admission that things are seriously out of control and that previous analysis was faulty, flawed, or fraudulent. Not happening without a severe equity market meltdown.
25 bp cut - allows for continued cuts in the near term, and gives the market time to absorb its excesses. Some pain, but not armageddon. The wisest and therefore most likely choice.
sigh
the odds of a 25 bp rate cut according to the market is 1.4% right now....
50 bps cut chance is 53.9% chance
75 bps cut is 43.9% chance
25 bps hike is 0.8%
any more bad news events and that 75 bps cut chance is gonna climb even more
Quote from day7793:
Nonsense. 75 BP not in the cards, no way. Max 50 BP possible.
odds are 43% - how does 43% = no way?
if you are absolutely sure its not gonna be a 75 bps cut, margin your account to the max on the trade thats its not gonna be a 75bps cut....
but I bet you don't, I love people who talk in "no way" and "most likely" but never put one cent where their mouth is....
Quote from jasonjm:
my math isn't off because those are the official numbers
its not my math
They are not official. You got them from a pretty bad source.
The market has already priced in a 50bp move. It's pretty much a lock according to the market (above 100%), and you can tell by the value of the Feb contract.
The question is not whether there will be 50bp or not (market has already priced in this expectation fully), but is if there will be 75bp.
This is the most patient I have ever been on the internet,
sigh
I logged into this thread because never before have I seen so many people that need so much help....
agev, what is 43.9 + 53.9
answer, 97.8
what does that mean? its means there is a 97.8% chance of a 50 bps rate cut (or greater) does that qualify as a lock for you? (it does for me).
sigh
I logged into this thread because never before have I seen so many people that need so much help....
agev, what is 43.9 + 53.9
answer, 97.8
what does that mean? its means there is a 97.8% chance of a 50 bps rate cut (or greater) does that qualify as a lock for you? (it does for me).
Also, Fed Fund futures in August are predicting rates at 2.75%
So if we only get .50% cut on the 31st. Then for sure we will we another .25 or .50 cut in March.
I think a lot of people are confusing what their hearts are telling about what the fed should do (raise rates/no cuts) vs. Reality: major cuts are cumming!
So if we only get .50% cut on the 31st. Then for sure we will we another .25 or .50 cut in March.
I think a lot of people are confusing what their hearts are telling about what the fed should do (raise rates/no cuts) vs. Reality: major cuts are cumming!